Lockout update: Remember this quote

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By Chris Sheridan

NEW YORK — “It demonstrates the potential for more movement on our part.”

Those words came out of the mouth of NBA deputy commissioner Adam Silver on Tuesday after the owners offered the players a 50-50 split of revenues. So although some are writing that the players will never get an offer like that again, I’ll take the word of Silver over the word of a fellow blogissist.

There is a fair chance there will be contact between the league office and the players association today, if not for a brief sitdown (the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur begins at sundown, shortening the workday), then to set the table for a final round of negotiations to bring an end to the lockout before Monday — the date commissioner David Stern has set as the deadline to save the scheduled Nov. 1 start of the regular season.

To properly appreciate how eager Stern is to get a deal done, consider this: When he knocked on the door where the players were caucusing Tuesday and upped his offer from 47 percent to 50 percent, he moved further in the space of one minute than he had over the course of the entire summer. I still maintain that if Stern had made the 50-50 offer before the sides separated to caucus, the deal would have been done by now. Moving from 46 to 47 percent, as he did, was a slap in the face to the players (especially with a hothead like Kevin Garnett in the room) and left them predisposed to react angrily toward whatever words were the next to come out of Stern’s mouth. It was a tactical error on the commissioner’s part.

SheridanHoops.com has learned that the players’ most recent offer requested a 52.4 percent share of revenues in the first year of a six-year deal, rising gradually to 54 percent by Year 6 and averaging out at 53 percent.

So the sides are not 2 or 3 percentage points apart, they are 2.4 percentage points apart — at least in terms of Year One, or to use Ken Berger’s math, they are $80 million apart in a business that took in $4.2 billion in revnues last year. That is a bridgeable gap –  especially when taking Silver’s aforementioned quote into account.

So I’ll say it again: The deal will get done, and no regular season games will be lost. That has been my prediction all along, and I ain’t budging. I’ll leave the budging to the guys in the negotiating room.

 

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  1. atilaneron says:

    I am pretty sure if they did not have a definitive hint that they are very near to a deal (I mean both sides) they would be locked up pretending to settle the gap-I feel this will all be resolved in one meeting. But probably not monday, but a few days latter. This might mean cancelling a few games-but I dont think it is so important if each team plays lets say 60-65 instead of 82. Most ot them are meaningless in any case….

  2. Your opening quote is incorrect.

    Here is what Silver said:

    “As David began this press conference, there are a series of issues that we’ve moved substantially on. As we said, our indication today to go to a 50 50 deal demonstrates even more potential movement on our part.”

    http://www.sportstalknetwork.com/blog/?p=2341

    Silver was referring to the additional movement that going to a 50 50 deal represented. He was not speaking to more movement beyond that. There is no indication of the “potential for more movement” as you state.

  3. Somervillain says:

    I have a cynical question. Once a deal is agreed, the players gotta stop all the pick-up games, right? I suppose they have that grace period until the legalese is signed, but surely the responsible action is to quit the risky stuff immediately. Personally, I am afraid this will put the kabosh on the UK vs. Villains game (coached by Laettner) in Rupp on the 24th, which was to include Enes (he’s on the good guy side) FINALLY getting to play at Rupp. If the lockout does get solved this weekend, that game seems doomed. So here is my cynical question: Isn’t the mother of all of the summer puck-up games scheduled for tomorrow night, highlighted by none other than get-your-finger-out-of-my-face,-we-say “NO”? And don’t those guys stand to make a pretty penny if that game goes, and take a bit of public backlash if they call it off last minute? So, wouldn’t certain stars rather a deal Monday than say, at the meetings 3 days ago?

  4. Can’t wait for Chris to release of vid of him poppin’ bottles on Monday night.

  5. I hope you are right, but I am concerned that there has been no word of any communication between the two sides. It baffles me to think that both sides have really given up on the idea of saving the season… but Billy Hunter’s comments about a meeting in a month or 2 would suggest that.

    I’m worried that each side is worried too much about their own ego to call the other side and arrange a meeting because they think that will be viewed as a sign of weekness…. and the opposing side will expect that side to absorb the gap.

    If the owners raise it to 51.4 or so, I think that deal gets passed by the players. There are the lebron james and the max players or close to max players who might be willing to take a stand- but there are rookies who want to establish themselves and build a carreer, and there are tons of lower end players (under 2-3 million a year who will take this deal rather than lose a year of pay and a year of their carreers.

  6. Hey man,

    I want to believe you, but I just do not trust David Stern…

    • its not about trusting David Stern… Unless you are referring to trust him on what deal is currently on the table. The owners will vote on the proposal put forth though. David Stern cant just decide to cancel the season if there is a deal on the table that the majority of owners are willing to run with.

  7. Michael Ramsden says:

    Again, I soooooo hope you’re right!

    You’re the most optimistic person I’ve ever seen, its as to be said.

    Although I do think it would be very daft not to get a deal done and lose out on (reportedly) hundreds of million of dollars – especially when we’re led to believe that they’re so close in terms of the BRI split.

    Actually, when I put it like that I think they (whisper) might get it sorted too…

  8. I hope you’re right and they can “cut through the bullshit” and seal the deal for Monday. Both sides have A LOT on line right if they do not.

  9. I have to agree with you 100%! There will be meetings this weekend and this will be settled. Both sides have way to much to lose if the season is interrupted.

    • Well the new news sounds like they tried to set up a meeting on Sunday and they can’t even agree on how to meet AGAIN, (sighs) sounds like we might miss a few games unfortunately

Trackbacks

  1. [...] now that there are genuine consequences facing them. Veteran NBA writer Chris Sheridan continues to predict that a deal will get done and no games lost, especially with the sides arguing about 2.4 percent of [...]

  2. [...] although the two sides have been in contact with each other since the Tuesday afternoon meeting.  Chris Sheridan is reporting that the players’ final offer to the owners was a 52.4% shares of revenues in year one of a [...]

  3. [...] • Chris Sheridan remains optimistic that we’ll get a full 2011-12 NBA season. [...]

  4. [...] Chris Sheridan of Sheridanhoops.com would certainly qualify as an optimist, for lack of a more appropriate term. He believe NBA Commissioner David Stern has made clear the league’s intentions regarding getting a deal done to save the on-time start to the season: To properly appreciate how eager Stern is to get a deal done, consider this: When he knocked on the door where the players were caucusing Tuesday and upped his offer from 47 percent to 50 percent, he moved further in the space of one minute than he had over the course of the entire summer. I still maintain that if Stern had made the 50-50 offer before the sides separated to caucus, the deal would have been done by now. Moving from 46 to 47 percent, as he did, was a slap in the face to the players (especially with a hot head like Kevin Garnett in the room) and left them predisposed to react angrily toward whatever words were the next to come out of Stern’s mouth. It was a tactical error on the commissioner’s part. [...]

  5. [...] The egregiousness of this situation is beyond contempt, but the utter lack of accountability on the part of the NBA is even more reprehensible.  Unfortunately the only solution for us is to say “stop watching basketball.”  But I can’t stop watching basketball.  I love basketball.  I love the Lakers.  But I hate everything about everyone that talks about standing up for their rights in this situation.  I’m ok with millionaires vs. billionaires.  I’m not ok with (millionaires vs. billionaires) vs. minimum wage workers.  Mr. Stern, the responsibility is on you to refocus this fight where it matters.  Families don’t deserve to be further shit on because you guys are fighting over 2.4 percentage points. [...]

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