It has been discussed in many different forums that betting the futures market is a sure-fire way to throw away your hard- earned profits.
But keeping an eye on movement in the NBA future market is a whole other story.
Other than noting the actual movements in numbers (25-1 to 20-1, etc…), I tend to look at the futures market as an 82-game novel. Each day and night, from November to June, the market opens after the completion of games and closes once the games have started. Depending on that night’s results, a key player’s long-term injury or drastic action on a given team, a team’s future can go up or down significantly.
The Boston Celtics are currently between 40-1 and 45-1 to win the NBA championship. Rajon Rondo, their motor and All-Star point guard, has been out of the lineup close to a month, and Boston is 10-4 SU (and ATS).
The most interesting part of the whole whirlwind for GM Danny Ainge and the Celtics was that they ripped off seven straight wins immediately after Rondo was declared out for the season. Five of those came against the Heat, Clippers, Lakers, Nuggets and Jazz.
The most efficient way to break down the NBA futures market is to draw out each team into pillars based on their current value:
Based on the current NBA standings, here are some interesting values at the current moment:
|Washington||2500/1||18-37||9 games out of 8th seed|
|Milwaukee||275/1||27-28||8th seed; 2 games out of 7th|
|Dallas||300/1||25-31||5 games out of 8th seed|
|Denver||35/1||36-22||5th seed; 2.5 games out of 4th|
|Chicago||23/1||32-25||6th seed; 1 game out of 4th/5th|
|Indiana||18/1||36-21||2nd seed; 6 games out of 1st|
It should be noted that Washington has three less games against current playoff teams than Cleveland the rest of the way and offer close to two times the value. You can put me down for a one-dollar wager on the Wizards to shock the world and steal the eighth seed.