Live Longshots (Pitchers)
There are 15 games today, which means several of the 30 SP will be bargains. Sometimes, you just need to pick the winning team. Houston’s Brad Peacock ($7,078) is a tempting price against his former team but Daniel Straily ($11,102) might also befuddle the Astros.
Barry Zito ($8,667) is definitely not cost-effective in real life. Robert calls his contract ridiculous, but adds, “the craftiest pitcher in baseball still has the yellow hammer (curve) and when it’s working, it is a sight to behold. Solid value despite facing a good Cardinals squad; that park will hold most of the flyballs.”
The Marlins aren’t hitting at all so far — one lousy run in their first three games combined — making Mets’ starter Jeremy Hefner ($7,600) a decent play.
Players to Avoid
The Rockies should score plenty of runs at home against Jason Marquis, the hot-hitting Orioles face inexperienced Liam Hendricks and the Braves might tee off on Scott Feldman.
Zach Greinke ($15,455) looks good at first glance, in a pitcher’s park against a weak opponent. However, he had a bout of elbow inflammation during spring training. Even if he’s 100%, the Dodgers will be very careful with his pitch count.
Kyle Lohse ($12,310) seems overpriced. “The D-Backs’ bats have been productive and Milwaukee is a good place to hit,” says Dudek. “Lohse signed late and it’s very unlikely he will go deep into this game.”
In general, we don’t advise overpaying for big-name stars who are in a slump. For example, Robinson Cano ($9,243) is the best 2B in baseball and went very early (or for top dollar) in most traditional leagues. So far he’s 1-for-11 and his teammates aren’t getting on base often enough to maximize his R and RBI opportunities.
Obviously, it’s important that your players are active. There is a good list of MLB injuries at Rotoworld and another at MLB.com. I use Baseball Press later in the day; it’s a good source once lineups are posted. Some leagues today close at 1:05 EDT, others at 7:07 and you can make unlimited roster moves until the deadline.
Hitters: 1 point for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run. A walk (.75) isn’t quite as good as a hit, but you also get .75 for getting hit by a pitch or a sacrifice. Stolen bases are worth 2 points, runs and RBI 1.5 apiece. You lose points for each strikeout or grounding into a double play (-.75) and getting caught stealing is -1.
Pitchers: Starters can earn the most points. A win is worth 1.5, a complete game 1, each IP is worth .9 and each strikeout .7 — the five “negative” categories are walks, hits and HBP (-.25 each), earned runs (-.75) and losses (-.75). Relievers get 3 points for a SV and lose .75 for a blown save. For pitchers in weekly leagues, the points are different; the value of many categories is doubled.