Live Longshots (Pitchers)
Both of us like Miami rookie Jose Fernandez ($7,086) in his big-league debut. “If the nerves don’t get to him, he represents an inexpensive play with the potential for dominance,” says Dudek. “But remember the old saying: young pitchers will break your heart.”
Jon Lester ($10,069) might be able to take advantage of the Blue Jays today. Normally, they have some scary RH power but Edwin Encarnacion is off to a slow start, Jose Bautista sat out yesterday with a sore ankle and J.P. Arencibia will not be behind the plate, though he’s a possibility to DH.
Jhoulys Chacin ($7,604) is at home against the Padres and should enjoy plenty of run support.
If you go with two expensive SP, you need a bargain RP for balance. Fernando Rodney ($2,439) has a good chance to get a SV and Jonathan Papelbon ($2,199) is reliable.
Players to Avoid
My colleague warns, “Super risky Chris Davis now has the highest price tag of all hitters — just as he had his first “sub-par” game. $12,296 is a huge price to pay, even against a rookie southpaw in a great park for lefthanded bats. He’ll need to approach a double-digit game to justify that salary.”
Yu Darvish ($16,617) just missed a perfect game last start but he’s dealing with a blister issue, takes on a much better hitting team and might be fatigued from that 111-pitch effort.
James Shields is way overpriced at $15,855 and unlikely to get much run support.
Yoenis Cespedes has a sore elbow, and Ryan Braun (neck) might be joining Aramis Ramirez (knee) on the DL. There is a comprehensive list of MLB injuries at Rotoworld and another at MLB.com. I use Baseball Press every day; they post accurate lineups sooner than anyone. All Sunday leagues close at 1:05 Eastern.
Hitters: 1 point for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run. A walk (.75) isn’t quite as good as a hit, but you also get .75 for getting hit by a pitch or a sacrifice. Stolen bases are worth 2 points, runs and RBI 1.5 apiece. You lose points for each strikeout or grounding into a double play (-.75) and getting caught stealing is -1.
Pitchers: Starters can earn the most points. A win is worth 1.5, a complete game 1, each IP is worth .9 and each strikeout .7 — the five “negative” categories are walks, hits and HBP (-.25 each), earned runs (-.75) and losses (-.75). Relievers get 3 points for a SV and lose .75 for a blown save. For pitchers in weekly leagues, the points are different; the value of many categories is doubled.