There’s MVP, and there’s fantasy MVP. James Harden made a strong statement for both last night. LeBron James $11300 (knee) didn’t play in a loss to the Thunder and is questionable tonight in New Orleans. Anthony Davis $11200 had three sub-par games — for him — before jamming his toe on Wednesday near the end of a big win over Dallas.
It’s difficult to earn those huge salaries at less than 100% effectiveness. Kyrie Irving $9000 escaped serious injury in a scary knee-on-knee collision but he is at least bruised, so Jrue Holiday $7800 could be the better play tonight. Omer Asik $5700 has a very good chance at a double-double. If LBJ sits out again, Matthew Dellevadova $3000 is almost a must-start. Kevin Love $8800 and Tristan Thompson $5400 would also gain in value.
There are 11 other games on Friday, many of them with more significance in DFS than real life.
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The Knicks are bad, with Carmelo Anthony $10000 (knee) questionable and others playing hurt. The Celtics should romp, but their rotation is 10-deep and not entirely predictable. Rajon Rondo $8100, Avery Bradley $4300, Jeff Green $6500, Jared Sullinger $7100 and Tyler Zeller $5000 is an affordable starting five. They all got the quick hook on Monday, allowing Kelly Olynyk $3900, Evan Turner $4400 and Marcus Smart $3900 to post huge numbers in a double-overtime loss. On Wednesday, Bradley and Sullinger shot a combined 4-19, so Marcus Thornton $3000 and Brandon Bass $4100 got extra run. For New York, Tim Hardaway Jr. $3500 and Amar’e Stoudemire $5900 are the best bang for the buck.
Lakers at Spurs is no contest, but it could be high-scoring, which we like. Tim Duncan $8600 is healthy and rested. Tony Parker $7000 is expected back from a three-game absence with a hamstring issue. Kawhi Leonard $7800 (hand) is questionable, making Danny Green $6000 more interesting. The affordable Marco Belinelli $4700 remains locked-in off the bench. Kobe Bryant $9500 had 32 points in his latest and is again the focal point. Carlos Boozer $5900 is coming off the bench behind Ed Davis $5000; timeshares are a drag in fantasy.
The 76ers are young and at 2-19, have nothing to lose. The Nets are old, without Brook Lopez (back) and with Kevin Garnett $4700 (foot) questionable. Joe Johnson $6600 might be a bit weak after missing two games with the flu. Deron Williams $8200 and Mason Plumlee $4900 will have to play very well, as Mirza Teletovic $5600 (hip pointer) is also less than 100% — if he returns. There is an opportunity for Philly if Michael Carter-Williams gets any scoring help. Robert Covington $3800 has been hot off the bench and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $4400 is contributing in many ways (10 STL in 3 games) for 28-29 minutes.
Getting back to games with real-life impact, the Clippers will be tested in DC. John Wall $10400 vs. Chris Paul $10000 is compelling stuff, but my money’s on Blake Griffin $10300 against the Wizards’ revolving door at PF. DeAndre Jordan $7700 is another strong play if you save money elsewhere.
It’s a back-to-back for Kevin Durant $10300 and Russell Westbrook $10100 after a much bigger game last night. How long they play (and how well) depends on Minnesota’s kids. Andrew Wiggins $5400 and Zach LaVine $5400 might be a little star-struck; Corey Brewer $5700 is the main threat for the T-Wolves with Thaddeus Young $7000 another possibility. It’s only one game as a 6’7” backup C, but SF-eligible Jeff Adrien $3000 (8 PTS, 11 REB in 26 minutes) earned another 10-day contract. If OKC has it wrapped up early, Reggie Jackson $6000 benefits.
No doubt looking ahead, the Blazers got ambushed in Minnesota. Now they face a much tougher battle in Chicago. Pau Gasol $9200 and LaMarcus Aldridge $10200 are both terrific. Damian Lillard $8700 vs. Derrick Rose $6500 is exciting. Here’s a potentially great NBA game that doesn’t have much to offer in DFS. Taj Gibson $5900 is my only target.
Orlando will be more competitive when Nikola Vucevic $8100 (back) is 100%; he might be a bit rusty if he does return tonight. I like Jeff Teague $7900, Paul Millsap $8900 and Al Horford $6800 individually or together. DeMarre Carroll $5700 might be the best value of all, if the score is higher than anticipated.
The Pacers are simply no match for the Raptors. Kyle Lowry $9800 is playing at an all-star level and Jonas Valanciunas $5500 might surprise Roy Hibbert $7300 with a few new post moves. Toronto’s depth and Dwane Casey’s coaching means the hot hands are not easy to predict.
Mike Conley $7400 and Marc Gasol $8500 are excellent at both ends of the floor. Don’t expect many easy buckets for the Hornets, as the Grizzlies are always content to win 90-85.
It’s highly unlikely that the Pistons will snap a 13-game losing streak in Phoenix. Isaiah Thomas $5800 is expected back, making it harder to predict the rotation for Phoenix. Eric Bledsoe $8300 and Markieff Morris $6600 are the safest bets.
With apologies to fans of either team, Heat at Jazz is boring. While Chris Bosh $8200 and Dwyane Wade $7700 give Miami a chance to win, the over/under is 190.
With so many games to choose from, even compiling a Short List excludes a lot of talent. Good luck with all your teams.
Pos | Premium | Midrange | Bargain |
PG | Kyle Lowry $9800 | Mike Conley $7400 | Matthew Dellavedova $3000 |
SG | Kobe Bryant $9500 | Jimmy Butler $6900 | Marco Belinelli $4700 |
SF | Kevin Durant $10300 | Jeff Green $6500 | Jeff Adrien $3000 |
PF | Blake Griffin $10300 | Markieff Morris $6600 | Robert Covington $3800 |
C | Marc Gasol $8500 | Omer Asik $5700 | Mason Plumlee $4900 |
The Fantasy Spin features DFS advice every day of the NBA season. Follow Kent Williams @SheridanFantasy for updates.