With a 35-2 record and perfect so far at home, the Golden State Warriors are double-digit favorites to beat Miami tonight. The champs just swept a three-game road trip averaging over 120 points. Stephen Curry $10500 is the highest-salaried player at DraftKings after scoring 38 points including eight triples on Saturday. Draymond Green $10000 registered four triple-doubles in his last six. Klay Thompson $8100 scored 36 in consecutive starts.
It’s the third road game in four nights for the Heat, who lost by 15 in Utah on Saturday with Dwyane Wade $6600 (shoulder) missing 14 of 17 shots. Chris Bosh $7800, Hassan Whiteside $7000 and Goran Dragic $5800 are playable if you’re optimistic that they will keep this one close. I’m thinking it’s over in the third and Gerald Green $4100 will start bombing away.
Of course, garbage time — if it occurs — might keep Steph, Klay and Dray from running up their individual numbers. Ultra-cheap backups like Ian Clark $3600 and Marreese Speights $3400 gain value in that scenario.
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The Nets have lost four straight, averaging under 85 points. Their coach and GM were fired. Jarrett Jack (knee) is lost for the season and Shane Larkin $4400 is far from an adequate replacement; backup PG Donald Sloan $3700 outplayed him on Saturday. Brook Lopez $7600 and Thaddeus Young $7000 are at least playable, but there are much easier opponents.
The ability of Gregg Popovich to mix and match his deep rotation is a luxury for the Spurs and a source of frustration for DFS owners. Tony Parker $5200 could easily post 20 and 10 if needed for 30 minutes, and LaMarcus Aldridge $6800 is a good bet to double-double if he gets enough time. Kawhi Leonard $8400 won’t have to give 100% for 40 minutes and Tim Duncan $5300 is a rest candidate. Danny Green $4000 might get more run than the other starters, with guys like Jonathon Simmons $3100 and Boban Marjanovic $3300 always eager for a chance to play.
Perhaps the best of the three games has John Wall $9400 leading the wounded Wizards into Chicago. Although Derrick Rose $6000 has looked good since returning from a three-game absence with knee and hamstring issues, it’s a tough matchup. Pau Gasol $8200 should do well against a questionable Marcin Gortat $6700 (knee) and Jimmy Butler $8300 might be unstoppable. Perhaps Otto Porter $6300 can help Washington stay competitive, but Jared Dudley $4400 is badly overmatched at PF, where the Bulls are deepest.
Taj Gibson $5900 had a couple of quiet games and Bobby Portis $4500 has cooled off a bit, so Nikola Mirotic $5700 stepped up on Saturday — 24 points, ten rebounds, five triples and a couple of blocks.
You can just as easily key on the Warriors, but my sample lineup avoids them, hoping the Heat are burned out. Wall and Butler are standouts in the most predictable game. Concerned about a Spurs mismatch, I’m not overpaying for Kawhi, and using two Nets who could perform well in a losing cause. Simmons is a hunch and a longshot; his low price allows me to spend more at the other three positions. This (as always) is subject to change before the deadline; breaking news can be critical and adjusting to it often increases profits.
|PG||Stephen Curry $10500||John Wall $9400||Donald Sloan $3700|
|SG||Jimmy Butler $8300||Klay Thompson $8100||Gerald Green $4100|
|SF||Kawhi Leonard $8400||Otto Porter $6300||Jonathon Simmons $3100|
|PF||Draymond Green $10000||Taj Gibson $5900||Nikola Mirotic $5700|
|C||Pau Gasol $8200||Brook Lopez $7600||Boban Marjanovic $3300|
The Fantasy Spin features DFS advice every day of the NBA season. Follow Kent Williams @SheridanFantasy for updates.