Apart from consisting of various interesting championships, NCAA basketball is a very interesting competition to watch simply because it is a nursery for the future NBA stars.
As avid basketball fans, we have found that betting on college basketball can be more profitable compared to the NBA as long as you follow some very simple steps. In this article you can find tips for betting college basketball in our attempt to help you better understand this competition and make some profit of it. College basketball betting advice can be useful for any bettor as the NCAA has certain parameters you should know and consider before placing your bet. Even if you’ve never placed a bet in basketball the following guide will help you start a new – and hopefully successful – betting habit.
Back outsiders against the line
Not just any outsiders, and not on every weekday. During the past 5 years, in 59% of all times when a favorite was hosting an outsider, coming from two consecutive matches on the road, they did not manage to cover the spread. This is only a slight hint on what to look for when betting on college basketball. Quite often you will notice that the college basketball betting lines are not even close to the real strength of the teams, or at least they don’t represent the match’s true conditions. So an experienced or well-informed bettor could easily leverage this difference to his advance.
Back the under option between high scoring teams
The bookie will not always set the line according to his trader’s predictions, but where he sees the money. The public will always back the over total points option between high scoring teams in order to draw in more players. This by itself means that there is little value in the odds. So probably one of the very best college basketball betting strategies is to seek the mistakes or the alleged mistakes that the bookie will make when drafting the odds. College basketball betting systems don’t have to be sophisticated, sometimes you need to seek the value of simplicity. The wrong estimation of the bookmaker in our case.
Don’t follow picks from major networks
Νetworks like ESPN, CBS and FOX are always trying to hype up the public with catchy titles and promises of never ending action. Don’t get fooled into following the hype, make your own research and follow solid tipsters. ESPN college basketball betting lines are quite simply not legit. They mainly act as clickbait. If your read a title like “Unstoppable Duke to challenge for this year’s championship”, don’t rush to put your money to this outcome bet. Titles like these are more or less clickbaits and not games predictions or betting tips. Remember that most of the articles are about popular teams and as you can see below the real value bets can’t be found on them.
A betting guide about college basketball – as any betting factor actually – will have to provide some important factors for punters. The networks are doing their job informing the public about a forthcoming game and a tipster guide their own leading the bettors to success. These are two separate factors. Don’t tangle them.
Back em’ small, win em’ big
Try and stay away from high profile games and instead bet on teams you know well or minor divisions, where sportsbooks are less aware of how the teams perform. This is a rather safe pattern concerning betting for college basketball. It goes without saying that high profile games gather all the interest. Fans, media, bookmakers. So in cases like that the right punter should act more stealthily and pick matches that are not the day’s highlight. Sports betting lines in college basketball are a little bit different than other basketball matches worldwide. Especially in events that bookmakers are unaware of most of the times as this gives punter the perfect opportunity to act to his own benefit.
Watch for the home court advantage
If there is one statistic that lies more than half the time, it’s the national average. There is no way you can calculate the performance of hundreds of teams by adding them all together and producing an average. This is especially true when they are playing at home, as big name teams will push this average higher, due to their better performance in front of their fans. Also, watch out for the last matches in the season as many teams are playing without motivation or might decide to try out lesser used players and might lose at home. It is easy to understand that even the best college basketball betting systems collapse and leave you wonder why. So what should you do to beat that fact? Two things actually. Study before you decide where you want to place your bets and trust your gut. For the first part, make sure that you’ll already found a site with analytic statistics that will help you predict the game and under which terms will it be held. That will help you predict the way the two teams are going to face each other. In addition with a local media – where available – that will give the latest news you have all the tools you need to come to a decision.
As you already placed some bets in college basketball games you have that special punter feeling which will tell you in advance if you have made the right decision or not. Online college basketball betting could be very thrilling simply because the game is very volatile. So you really need that special feeling to help you make the right decision when the time is right.
Dismiss historical data
The yearly performance of NCAA basketball teams is much more volatile than NBA teams as their rosters are changing year in, year out. A school that might have been dominating the past decade might decide to cut on their budget and lose a head coach, or a star player may graduate and head to the NBA, leaving them significantly weakened. You should try and find any such changes at the start of the season and use them to your advantage by betting against these teams before the bookies adjust their lines. College basketball betting odds are usually made from the legacy or the potential of a team and not from the actual strength at the given time. So what do you need in this case? Information from the experts about the actual strength of each team. It is isn’t that hard. Just find a trustworthy insider and carefully read what he has to say. Then if it is recommended back the underdogs until the bookmakers is forced to adjust the odds at their true value. Until that moment you’ll have probably increased your bankroll significantly.
Another thing you have to take into consideration when it comes to online betting on college football are long term bets. In these teams the most important factor is the coach and next the individual talent of each player. So a team with many new players but with a good and experienced coach could be underachieving in the first matches of the season, but in the long run it can claim it’s place in the upper side of the table.
Upsets and injuries
There is a common misconception that surrounds big teams. Allegedly if a big team suffers an upset, they will immediately bounce back on their next match. Although there is some truth in that, what most people forget to amount for, is injuries. If a team such as Duke suffer two key player injuries, then losing against an inferior opponent can hardly be called an upset. Seeing that the public will massively back Duke to win, you should instead bet against the public and expect that Duke will struggle to win once again. There isn’t such a thing as consistent strategies to win college basketball betting, so all you have to do is examine wisely all the parameters of each game separately.
College basketball injury betting is also a thing believe it or not. And by saying that we don’t mean of course that you should bet on a future injury of a player – we are not quite sure if such a market exists – but to place your bets according to absences due to injuries. Most college teams are built around a specific player or players. So if they are not playing in a forthcoming match then you might have a chance to take advantage of.
Follow the players
Ok, this may sound a bit creepy but we are not talking about literal stalking. Betting is all about knowing your teams. Pick a division you are well aware of and start following their players on social media. This way you will be updated about teams and individual player news, well before the bookies even catch a whiff of any injuries or returns. Most important of all, always remember that they are schoolkids and not yet professional athletes. Betting on college basketball has this peculiarity. So if you follow the stars of each team in the social media you’ll have first hand information about all the non athletic aspects of their lives. An in-school feud for example, or a party that may have an unexpected impact to a player’s performance and send any proven strategy to win college basketball betting to the gutter. This is information that could be extremely useful for any punter and may take some time before the bookies reach it.