Sheridan: Talking age and experience with Derek Fisher

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OKLAHOMA CITY — There is an age-old truism pertaining to the NBA Finals that pertains to the question of old age.

Young teams rarely, and we mean very rarely, win NBA championships.

If the Oklahoma City Thunder somehow manage to emerge from the NBA Finals victorious, they’d be the first team with such a young nucleus to win the title since the Portland Trail Blazers in 1977 — a topic that our Hall of Fame columnist, Mark Heisler, addressed in his column from earlier today.

And when it comes to old age, or lack thereof, we’re talking about babes in the woods when it comes to the team that will play host to the opener of the best-of-7 series on Tuesday night.

Let’s start with Kevin Durant, who is 23 — which means he was a 2-year-old when Michael Jordan won his first championship. Same goes for Russell Westbrook, for whom the Clinton Administration is something he learned about in history class when he was in grade school.

And then there is James Harden, who is all of 22. He may have the best beard since ZZ Top was singing Gimme all Your Lovin’, but that song was recorded 6 years before he was born.

Are these kids going to be alright? (The album by The Who bearing that title was recorded nearly a decade before any of the Thunder’s Big Three was conceived, much less born.)

To get an answer, we turned to one of the Thunder’s old farts, Derek Fisher, who happens to be the proud owner of not one, not two, not three, not four, but five championship rings. (If anyone still playing is entitled to use the ‘not two, not three, not four’ sentence construction, it is Fish).

“Basketball experience is what matters,” Fisher said, “not age experience. How ever you want to measure it, having  experience in certain situations is what matters.”

Fisher was a member of the Los Angeles Lakers when Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal were ringless, which was a time when Bryant was viewed as a precocious chucker and O’Neal was viewed as a behemoth of a big man who would never be able to overcome his free throw difficulties and lead his team to a title.

And when those 1999-2000 Los Angeles Lakers faced Reggie Miller and the time-tested Indiana Pacers, the conventional wisdom going into the series what that it was Miller Time, after so many years of trying.

Six games later, that little dose of conventional wisdom was obsolete.

And it’s not just conventional wisdom that has some folks dismissing the Thunder as too young to succeed on this big of a stage. There is the history factor, which is relevant until someone comes along and breaks the mold. Just over a week ago, folks everywhere were citing the historical data that teams falling behind 0-2 in a playoff series are defeated more than 80 percent of the time.

And what happened next? The Thunder (and the Celtics) went out and won the next three games.

The old saying goes that those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. But a lesser known saying is that those who live too much in the past unwittingly allow that to obscure their view of the present.

And what we have in the present is two very good teams with three superstars apiece, but teams with distinct flaws that their opponent will try to exploit.

The Thunder are a turnover-prone team, and the Heat are a team that thrives on turning transition opportunities into highlight-reel fast breaks. The Heat are a team with a fundamental construction problem in that their two best players duplicate each other a little too much, with both LeBron James and Dwyane Wade needing the ball in their hands on a majority of their offensive possessions in order to be most effective.

The Heat do not have superstars at the point guard or center positions, and their 3-point shooters go from hot to cold with more frequency than a hotel shower when 400 guests are trying to use the plumbing system at the same time.

The Thunder have more bigs who can pound you relentlessly on the boards, and they have a big man in Serge Ibaka who can hit it from outside — although not with the proficiency from the 3-point arc that Chris Bosh displayed in Game 7 against the Celtics.

And another thing: Although the Thunder are the younger team, they have been together as a unit for a far longer time than the Heat. Cohesiveness is just as important as experience, and the Thunder is as tight-knit of a group as there is in the NBA. Just read this column if you doubt that premise.

Remember, Shaq and Kobe were ringless once, too.

And remember this, too: Durant and Westbrook have thrived on the world’s biggest stage, two summers ago in Turkey. For a refresher on that episode of their careers, click here.

“You never know if you have what it takes to win a championship until you do. You can play well in the Finals and have a great game and win three games and not figure out a way to win the fourth one, and you weren’t good enough to be champions that year,” Fisher said. “We’re not here by accident. Those three guys are no here by accident. They’re capable of getting a lot of things done.”

Fisher has been around long enough to know that of which he speaks. His team just knocked off a machine of a team in the San Antonio Spurs. His team’s best player has led the NBA in scoring for three straight years. His coach made great adjustments in the Western Conference finals to exploit the Spurs’ weaknesses. And his entire team came of age before our very eyes in rebounding from that 0-2 deficit in the last round.

They may be young, but they are not inexperienced. And that’s where the “Too Young To Win” school of thought gets a failing grade, IMHO.

For my series prediction, and those of the SheridanHoops.com staff, click here.

Chris Sheridan is the founder, publisher and editor-in-chief of SheridanHoops.com. He has covered every NBA Finals since 1994, with the exception of 2011(DNP-Litigiousness), and every Olympics since 1996. Follow him on Twitter.

 

The Thunder will win it in 5 games

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Watch the above video for my reasoning.

And by the way, I am the only person on the SheridanHoops staff to pick Thunder in 5. For all of our staff’s picks, click here. (Disclaimer: The prediction business is a tricky one. I had Heat in 7 last round, but I also had Spurs in 5.)

And back in the day when I was with ESPN, I was the only guy who said there was only a 10 percent chance that LeBron James would re-sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers. I had him taking his talents to South Beach, and so did John Hollinger. No one else on the ESPN.com staff was even close to correct with their picks.

If I was better at making predictions, believe me, I would not be running a Web site. I’d be a registered voter in the state of Nevada. So take my pick with a grain of salt. Do not take it to the bank.

 

Paging Paul Pierce; Will We Have Game 7 Shootout?

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So much has been made of the trials and tribulations of LeBron James over the course of these NBA playoffs, which is to be expected. When you flame out the way James flamed out in the NBA Finals last June, you are going to be under a microscope — or a Hubble telescope as columnist Tom D’Angelo wrote in this Game 6 column.

But how about we take a look at another of the stars in this series, and put him under a magnifying glass.

Hey, Paul Pierce, you going to show up for Game 7 the same way you did four years ago when you (41 points) and the Boston Celtics knocked James (45 points) and the Cleveland Cavaliers out of the playoffs in Game 7 of an epic playoff series between those two teams and those two superstars?

Pierce scored nine points on 4-of-18 shooting — two on 1-of-4 in the first half — missed all six of his 3-pointers and was done before he hit 31 minutes. He spent the last 7:43 on the bench on Boston’s Game 6 loss.

Pierce has had his moment in this series, none bigger than his dagger 3-pointer toward the end of Game 5. But he is shooting 38.6 percent in the playoffs, 33.6 percent in this series. He has taken 113 shots to score 107 points, and he has attempted just 26 free throws.

Does he have something left in the tank for Game 7 on Saturday night? I discuss with CineSport’s Noah Coslov in the above video. 

 

History of comebacks from 0-2 deficits

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Tonight, the Boston Celtics will try to become the 16th team in NBA history to come back from an 0-2 deficit to win a playoff series. Yesterday, the Oklahoma City Thunder became the 15th.

Here is the list of all the teams that have done it, and below are some interesting notes about the Celtics and Heat.

Boston (vs. Los Angeles)
1969
Finals
Los Angeles (vs. San Francisco)
1969
Western Division Semifinals
Baltimore (vs. New York)
1971
Eastern Conference Finals
Portland (vs. Philadelphia)
1977
Finals
Chicago (vs. New York)
1993
Eastern Conference Finals
Houston (vs. Phoenix)
1994
Western Conference Semifinals
Houston (vs. Phoenix)
1995
Western Conference Semifinals
L.A. Lakers (vs. San Antonio)
2004
Western Conference Semifinals
Dallas (vs. Houston)
2005
Western Conference First Round
Washington (vs. Chicago)
2005
Eastern Conference First Round
Miami (vs. Dallas)
2006
Finals
Utah (vs. Houston)
2007
Western Conference First Round
Cleveland (vs. Detroit)
2007
Eastern Conference Finals
San Antonio (vs. New Orleans)
2008
Western Conference Semifinals
Oklahoma City (vs. San Antonio)
2012
Western Conference Finals

Not surprisingly, Boston has some history when it comes to close-out games. According to the Elias Sports Bureau:

  • The Celtics’ record all-time in close-out opportunities: 77-60 (.562)
  • The Celtics’ record all-time in close-out games at home: 44-16 (.733)
  • The Celtics’ record in close-out games since the Kevin Garnett trade prior to the 2007-08 season: 11-13 (.458)
  • The Celtics’ home record in close-out games since the Garnett trade: 9-2 (.818)
  • The Celtics’ all-time series record when up 3-2: 36-2* (.947)
    *The two times Boston has lost a series when up 3-2 were in the 2010 Finals (Los Angeles Lakers) and the 2009 semifinals (Orlando). The Lakers won Game 6 and 7 at home and the Magic won Game 6 at home and the clincher in Boston.After winning the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals against Boston, Miami has dropped three straight. Since the 1987-88 postseason, eight teams have gone on to win a playoff series after losing three straight during the same series. Atlanta in the first round in 2010; Detroit in the conference semifinals of 2006 and 2004; Phoenix in the first round in 2006; Dallas in the first round in 2003; Milwaukee in the conference semifinals in 2001; Utah in the conference semifinals in 1994; New York in the conference finals in 1994; and Boston in the 1988 conference semifinals.The Heat has totaled eight postseason wins on the road over the last two years, the most in the NBA. Additionally Miami’s .471 winning percentage is the second highest over that span. Dallas ranks first at .583 (7-5).

 

Something you might not know about Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook

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Ok, so the Oklahoma City Thunder are in the NBA Finals, and the knee-jerk reaction will be that they are doomed to lose because they’ve never before performed on the big stage like so many of the Celtics and Heat have.

We’re here to tell you that knee-jerk reaction argument is fatally flawed.

Unbeknownst to many Americans, the Thunder’s dynamic duo of Durant and Westbrook have not only performed, but won, at the highest level on earth.

That happened at the 2010 World Championship in Turkey, when the United States “B-Deem Team” brought home the gold medal from that tournament for the first time since 1994.

I covered that team for ESPN.com, spending 40 days on the road with them from Las Vegas to Madrid to Athens to Istanbul. That team went into Madrid and defeated Spain as Derrick Rose replaced Rajon Rondo as the starting point guard, and they then had a few close battles in Turkey (they beat Brazil by just 2 points when Leandro Barbosa missed a buzzer-beating 3) en route to the medal round. Also en route to the elimination stage, Westbrook replaced Rose as coach Mike Krzyzewski’s go-to point guard. (Rose didn’t play well until the fourth quarter of the gold medal game against Turkey).

Defeating Turkey in the gold medal game in front of a raucous, singing home crowd was Team USA’s crowning achievement two summers ago, and the foreign media was absolutely flabbergasted by Durant.

I had a sitdown interview with FIBA chief Patrick Baumann at the SwissHotel in Istanbul, and he was shaking his head in admiration saying “This is a player who simply cannot be defended.”

The Spurs just learned that, as did the Lakers and Mavericks before them. 

Whether Oklahoma City can take the next step and be an NBA championship-caliber team remains to be seen, but Durant and Westbrook’s championship pedigree has already been established. It came when they were wearing red, white and blue. More on that in the above video with CineSport’s Tara Petrolino.