Hamilton: What We Learned on Day One of NBA Free Agency

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NEW YORK — It pays to be a center, whether you are an All-Star or a promising young Turk.

Also, there is a lot of interest in a 38-year-old two-time MVP.

And, the main domino has not yet fallen, although Monday will be a key day in the life of Deron Williams, the Brooklyn Nets and the Dallas Mavericks.

One more thing: For the first time ever, restricted free agents rather than unrestricted free agents ruled the day on Day One of the 2012 free agency market, and we won’t know until July 11 what deals will be matched and which won’t.

Roy Hibbert is now a max player. The Portland Trail Blazers made him one. But the Indiana Pacers will have final say on where the All-Star center spends the next four seasons of his career.

Omer Asik is a stud center. Or at least he’ll be paid like one on the back end of a three-year deal he is close to with the Houston Rockets. Unless, of course, the Bulls match.

Again, an issue for July 11.

The NBA’s 2012 offseason spending season officially got underway on Sunday. Day One, as usual, brought forth some deals, but the big dominoes usually don’t fall until later on in the process.

This summer marks the first offseason of the 2011 CBA and as such, some things have undoubtedly changed. Less guaranteed years are being thrown around, smaller raises are being given out, and all teams—including the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers—are cognizant of the luxury tax implications that the rich deals of today will have tomorrow.

But after the first day of free-agency, we have already seen a few deals made.

Some teams come into the summer with a plan and specific targets and wasted no time getting to work, perhaps prematurely enough that they violated NBA tampering rules.

Others sat back, surveyed the scene, watched how the dominoes were set up, and scheduled meetings. And as the NBA’s new economic era got underway, many dynamics have changed.

Still, one truism seems to have stayed the same …

Centers Always Get Paid

On the first-day of free-agency, Roy Hibbert received a four-year offer from the Portland Trail Blazers worth $58 million. The offer seemed to surprise most of us, particularly because the new economic era that the 2011 CBA was supposed to was supposed to bring forth fiscal restraint.

Instead, Hibbert’s annual salary—$14.5 million on average—is very similar to what Al Jefferson, Marc Gasol, Tyson Chandler, and Emeka Okafor are earning in their current deals.

Yes, Hibbert is coming off of his first All-Star appearance, and he had a decent showing against the Miami Heat in the second round of this year’s playoffs, but the Trail Blazers signing him to an offer sheet worth this much has already ensured that Hibbert will be paid maximum money.

And that assertion is quite difficult to argue with when you hear that the Houston Rockets have agreed with the biggest flopper ever, Omer Asik, on a three-year offer sheet worth $25 million. Personally, I’ve been high on Asik for quite some time, but I’m not sure if the flashes he’s shown warrant an average salary of $8.3 million.

Next summer, Andrew Bynum will be an unrestricted free-agent, so he’s obviously getting the maximum. But how do we gauge the value of Denver’s Timofey Mozgov? The Timberwolves’ Nikola Pekovic? The Thunder’s Serge Ibaka? How about the 2014 center crop of Marcin Gortat, DeMarcus Cousins and Greg Monroe?

No doubt, all of the aforementioned players’ agents are happy. The deals handed out to Hibbert and Asik have ensured that centers will continue to be amongst the highest paid players, even if their production doesn’t come close to warranting it.

Ask Mark Cuban and Eric Dampier, Brendan Haywood, Raef LaFrentz, Shawn Bradley, et al.

That being said, there does seem to be one positive emanating from the Hibbert and Asik offer sheets…

GMs Are Looking Harder at Restricted Free-Agents

In the Summer of 2010, Rudy Gay was tendered a max offer and most believed he was paid too highly. And over the years, we’ve seen scores of general managers give their restricted free-agents maximum dollars without being forced to.

Often, totally asinine.

The point of restricted free agency is to give the incumbent team the right of first refusal over an offer-sheet signed by a restricted free agent. Sometimes, as in the case of Gay, owners and general managers have not let their restricted free agents go out onto the open market and set a price. Those dubious decisions have left us dumbfounded plenty of times, because everyone that goes into business knows to never bid against yourself.

Thus far, it seems that NBA general managers got the memo on this one, though. As of this writing, all of Chris Bernucca’s Top 12 Restricted Free-Agents are coveted commodities. None have been taken off of the market by their incumbent team, because July 11 might be the day when the deck is totally reshuffled. On Monday, the Denver Nuggets meet with JaVale McGee. Let’s wait and see where that takes things.

This patience approach has been particularly surprising in the case of Eric Gordon (New Orleans Hornets) and Jeremy Lin (New York Knicks). Gordon was the centerpiece of the December trade that sent Chris Paul to the Los Angeles Clippers and the Knicks recently found out that they can re-sign Lin without using their coveted midlevel exception.

Gordon is about to embark on a tour of potential suitor cities.

Nicolas Batum is due in Minnesota, and he could realistically get something close to a max offer.

If Asik set the RFA market, other GMs seem ready to follow suit.

Speaking of following suit…

The Celtics, As We Know Them, Are Coming Back (Hopefully)

Danny Ainge quickly re-signed Kevin Garnett and Doc Rivers is happy about that. Although they’ve been written off as too old and too slow, the Celtics took the NBA Champion Miami Heat to seven games this postseason, and that’s something no other team was able to do. Sure, Chris Bosh wasn’t healthy, but neither was Avery Bradley. My opinion was and is that the Celtics need to build around their core four and try to plug some holes the way the San Antonio Spurs did this past season.

Now, after drafting Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo, and making a two-year offer worth about $12 million to Ray Allen, it seems as though that’s exactly what the Celtics are trying to do.

As a basketball fan, I’m happy about that. The only thing that remains to be seen is whether Allen’s relationships with Rajon Rondo and Doc Rivers have soured to the point where he’d be willing to take roughly half the money to play for the Miami Heat or accept a two-year $10 million offer to play for the Memphis Grizzlies.

What else we learned today…?

The Raptors Need Nash More Than Nash Needs Them

We all expected Steve Nash to be a much sought after free-agent, but the reports of the Raptors offering him a three-year deal worth $36 million are a bit staggering. That’s especially the case when you consider that Nash earned about $11.7 million last season and has been showing signs of his age recently. Though there are conflicting reports as to the dollar amount of the Raptors offer, we do know that it has blown the doors off of just about anything any other team would offer Nash at this stage in his career.

Nash is expected to play for either the Raptors, Knicks, or Mavericks next season. The Raptors could offer him the most money but virtually no chance to win, while the Knicks could offer a better chance to win but would have to execute a sign-and-trade to get the money to a respectable level. The Mavericks seem to be right in the middle, as they can offer Nash a decent payday, and at least two solid running mates in Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion.

If Nash wants to chase a ring, of these three teams, the Knicks would give him the best opportunity. It will also be interesting to see whether the Suns would be willing to do Nash the favor of executing a sign-and-trade deal with the Knicks, since their only incentive for doing so would be to help Nash get a larger payday from the team he’d want to play for.

And while we’re on the subject of larger paydays…

Deron Williams…

stands to lose about $26 million in guaranteed money if he elects to bolt Brooklyn for Dallas. At the end of the day, professional athletes don’t usually leave that kind of money on the table, so I’d be shocked to see Williams leave Brooklyn.

Still, Williams’ first sit-down will be with the Mavericks on Monday morning before officially being tendered his five-year $99 million deal from the Nets.

From what I hear, the Mavericks and Nets are the only two teams that have a realistic shot at Williams, but that doesn’t mean that he won’t make the right decision for himself and his future.

One thing to consider in all of this is that if Williams signs with the Mavericks, he’ll do so with the knowledge that Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson have proven themselves to be excellent team managers and capable of building a champion. The same can’t be said of Mikhail Prokhorov and Billy King. And although the Mavericks’ money offer would come without a fifth guaranteed year, Williams knows that Cuban would spare no expense to find him a running mate.

And yes, that running mate could be…

Dwight Howard

The Dwightmare has gotten pretty old, pretty fast. And the recent allegations from his camp that the Orlando Magic “blackmailed” Dwight into opting in are childish, to say the least. Even still, if Dwight plays out the final year of his deal and the Mavericks either trade Vince Carter or Shawn Marion, or amnesty Brendan Haywood, they could find themselves in a position to sign Howard next summer. There’s no telling whether that will have an impact on Williams’ decision making.

And obviously…

Things are bound to get more interesting as the days go by. Other potential difference making free-agents out there such as  Batum, Jamal Crawford, and Raymond Felton have already begun speaking with teams, while others  like Jameer Nelson and O.J. Mayo have been more on the quiet side. Remember, it’s often the value deals that GMs get on the “B Level” Free-Agents that make all the difference.

We’ve only just begun, but if you stay plugged in to SheridanHoops.com, we’ll make sure we keep you up to date on the latest free-agency happenings and provide the educated and high-level commentary you’ve grown accustomed to.

Let’s see what Day Two brings.

Moke Hamilton is a Senior NBA Columnist for SheridanHoops.com and will be providing the latest news and commentary during the NBA’s free-agency period. Follow him on Twitter to stay up-to date.

 

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NBA Free Agency: Teams With Money Under The Cap

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Today marks the beginning of NBA free agency, and folks need a primer on which teams will be the biggest players in the open market.

It all depends on how far below the salary cap they can get, and we are here to break those numbers down for you.

Chris Bernucca has done a great job of ranking the NBA’s top 2012 unrestricted free-agents and the league’s top 2012 restricted free-agents, but in addition to checking out either those pieces, it’d be wise to continue reading to find out whether or not your favorite team will even be in a position to pursue players such as Roy Hibbert (who has already received two max offers), Goran Dragic, Ray Allen, or O.J. Mayo.

The salary cap for the 2012-2013 NBA season is expected to be about $58 million. And while we will provide figures for NBA teams that we expect to have cap space, we must point out the following:

The 2011 CBA contains an all-important Amnesty Clause. As you know (or should know if you’re reading this), NBA contracts are fully guaranteed and the salaries that teams promise to pay their players in the future count against the team’s future cap.

Case in point: The Miami Heat already have about $76 million committed in salaries for the 2013-2014 NBA season, and that’s mainly due to the contractual obligations they made to LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh back in July 2010.

The reason why the amnesty clause is important here, though, is because in the 2011 CBA, the NBA completely revamped its luxury tax system in an effort to curb the spending of big market teams. In short, under the old system, teams that exceeded the luxury tax threshold had to pay $1 for each dollar by which they exceeded the luxury tax threshold. In other words, if the tax threshold was $65 million and Team X had a payroll of $85 million, it had to write a luxury tax check to the NBA for $20 million.

Ok, so why the hell do you care?

Here’s why: Under the 2011 CBA, the luxury tax is going to become more expensive. Much more expensive. That’s where the amnesty clause comes in. A team’s luxury tax bill is dependent on the amount of its payroll. What the amnesty clause allows, though, is for a team to take one of the contracts (and the salary amount) for any player that was on its team as of July 1, 2011, and strike it off of its payroll.

The net effect is that the amnestied contract no longer appears on the team’s payroll. Yes, the player is still paid by the team, but the salary will not count against the team’s cap or luxury tax bill.

This is important to our free-agency discussion because if Team X has a payroll of $60 million, but owes a player who is eligible to be amnestied $17 million, Team X could amnesty the player and bring its cap figure down to $43 million and facilitate the acquisition of a free agent.

In fact, that’s exactly how the New York Knicks acquired Tyson Chandler back in December 2011. Technically, the Knicks executed a sign-and-trade deal to acquire Chandler, but they were only able to make the deal happen because the team elected to use its right to a one-time amnesty on Chauncey Billups and his $13 million salary.

So, that being said, what is provided below are the teams who currently have less than $58 million committed in salaries for the 2012-2013 NBA Season. But the Potential Cap Space listed below is the maximum amount of cap space a team can manufacture if it elects to NOT re-sign any of its free agents. And in some instances, a team may manufacture more cap space if it uses its amnesty on an eligible player.

As far as restricted free agents are concerned, a team must have submitted a qualifying offer in order to restrict a free agent. However, a qualifying offer may be rescinded so long as the free agent has not yet accepted it. Simply put, the cap space isn’t spoken for until the deal is actually agreed to.

Now that we’ve got all of that out of the way, without further delay, here are the teams that can or will get under the cap this offseason.

Brooklyn Nets: $41 million
2012-2013 Contracts: Jordan Farmar, Anthony Morrow, Johan Petro, Marshon Brooks, Jordan Williams.
Free Agents: Deron Williams, Gerald Wallace, Brook Lopez (R), Kris Humphries, Sundiata Gaines, Gerald Green, Damian Jones, DeShawn Stevenson, Armon Johnson, Shelden Williams.
Important: As of right now, the Nets have only five contracts on their books for the upcoming season. The team is hopeful that Deron Williams accepts their maximum contract offer and if he does, it would leave the Nets with potentially $24 million left under the cap. The club has reportedly reached a handshake agreement on a four-year, $40 million deal with Gerald Wallace, but he, Lopez, and/or Humphries could all be shown the door if the Nets are able to make a deal—such as the one they’re mulling for Joe Johnson—that would significantly upgrade their roster. The Nets have a lot of cap space and a lot of flexibility, but they are also hamstrung by the Orlando Magic’s timetable on a Dwight Howard trade. If they can’t get Dwight, they might lose Deron to Dallas. Both Brooklyn and Dallas are expected to speak with Williams on Monday.

celtics small logoBoston Celtics: $24 million
2012-2013 Contracts: Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley, JaJuan Johnson, E’Twaun Moore, Sean Williams, Jared Sullinger, Fab Melo.
Free Agents: Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Brandon Bass, Keyon Dooling, Marquis Daniels, Sasha Pavlovic, Mickael Pietrus, Greg Stiesma, Ryan Hollins.
Important: The Celtics could have created enough room to lure a maximum free agent to Boston if the club elected to let Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen take their talents elsewhere. However, Mark Spears reports that Garnett and the Celtics have reached agreement on a 3-year, $34 million deal. It’s also difficult to imagine Danny Ainge allowing both Brandon Bass and Greg Stiemsma to bolt, since both were major contributors to the team’s success this past season. With the news of Garnett likely remaining, it seems as though the Celtics will probably retain most of their free agents and attempt to add talent and size to its existing core. They have already targeted Jason Terry and Nick Young as possible replacements for Allen, along with Sonny Weems, O.J. Mayo, Kirk Hinrich and Jamal Crawford.

blazers small logoPortland Trail Blazers: $23 million
2012-2013 Contracts: LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Shawne Williams, Luke Babbitt, Elliot Williams, Nolan Smith, Kurt Thomas, Damian Lillard, Meyers Leonard.
Free-Agents: Raymond Felton, Jamal Crawford, Jonny Flynn, Joel Pryzbilla, Craig Smith, Hasheem Thabeet, J.J. Hickson, Nicolas Batum (R).
Important: The Trail Blazers have extended a qualifying offer to Batum, but not Hickson. The team would like to have each of them back, though, and the club has been actively negotiating with Batum and his representatives for a long while. But new GM Neil Olshey opened the door for a major revamping by making a max offer to Hibbert, the Pacers’ restricted free agent, according to Sam Amick of SI.com. The club’s trading of Gerald Wallace had a lot to do with them wanting to clear the way for Batum and his future in Portland, so it’s hard to imagine any scenario in which he isn’t brought back — even if he signs an offer sheet with Minnesota for $45-50 million, which is one of the pieces of news out there today. The Hornets and Raptors also have reached out to Batum.

Hornets small logoNew Orleans Hornets: $22 million
2012-2013 Contracts: Rashard Lewis, Jarrett Jack, Al-Farouq Aminu, Jason Smith, Xavier Henry, Gustavo Ayon, Greivis Vasquez, Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers.
Free-Agents: Eric Gordon (R), Chris Kaman, Carl Landry, Marco Bellinelli, Lance Thomas.
Important: The Hornets recently traded for Rashard Lewis but bought out the final year of his contract. For that reason, $13 million of his guaranteed salary will count against the Hornets’ cap figure. Eric Gordon was the centerpiece of the deal that sent Chris Paul to the Clippers, so although he’s a free agent you can expect that the Hornets will match any offer he receives. Chris Kaman will probably end up elsewhere, and the club has some decisions to make on both Carl Landry and Marco Bellinelli. Once Gordon is re-signed, the Hornets will have less than $10 million available to them, so it’s probably likely that they’ll elect to re-sign both Landry and Bellinelli.

suns small logoPhoenix Suns: $22 million / $28 million
2012-2013 Contracts: Marcin Gortat, Josh Childress, Channing Frye, Hakim Warrick, Jared Dudley, Markieff Morris, Sebastian Telfair, Kendall Marshall
Free-Agents: Steve Nash, Grant Hill, Shannon Brown, Aaron Brooks (R), Robin Lopez (R), Michael Redd, Ronnie Price
Important: The Suns could elect to amnesty either Josh Childress or Channing Frye and doing so would free up an additional $6 million in cap space. The Suns are expected to attempt to retain Steve Nash, but all indications are that Nash will only stay if they can significantly upgrade their roster, and that’s not likely. They’ve extended qualifying offers to both Aaron Brooks and Robin Lopez. The Knicks contacted Nash shortly after midnight and asked for a meeting Sunday, Chris Sheridan reported early today.  The Toronto Raptors also covet him, and can pay twice what New York can.

cavs small logoCleveland Cavaliers: $21 million
2012-2013 Contracts: Anderson Varejao, Luke Walton, Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, Omri Casspi, Dion Waiters, Tyler Zeller.
Free-Agents: Daniel Gibson, Kelenna Azubuike, Samardo Samuels, Alonzo Gee (R), Luke Harangody (R), Semih Erden (R).
Important: If the Cavaliers elected to allow their free-agents to walk, they could free up about $21 million in cap space. They’re fairly high on both Gee and Erden, and even after re-signing both, could have upwards of $15 million to use in assembling a roster around its young nucleus of Irving, Waiters, Thompson, and Zeller.

pacers small logoIndiana Pacers: $20 million
2012-2013 Contracts: Danny Granger, David West, Paul George, Tyler Hansbrough, Dahntay Jones, Jeff Pendergraph, Darren Collison, Miles Plumlee
Free Agents: Roy Hibbert (R), George Hill (R), Leandro Barbosa, Louis Amundson, A.J. Price, Kyrylo Fesenko.
Important: The Pacers have made retaining Hibbert and Hill their top priorities, once they do that, they won’t have much money remaining to be major players in free-agency. Like the Celtics, expect them to spend their cap space retaining their own players.

rockets small logoHouston Rockets: $19 million
2012-2013 Contracts: Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry, Patrick Patterson, Marcus Morris, Shaun Livingston, Chandler Parsons, Jon Brockman, Jeremy Lamb, Royce White, Terrance Jones.
Free Agents: Marcus Camby, Courtney Lee (R), Goran Dragic, Earl Boykins.
Important: The Rockets have just added three first-round picks to their team and roster spots are becoming scarce. Shortly after midnight, GM Daryl Morey tweeted that he was meeting with Bulls free agent Omer Asik. If the Turkish center comes aboard, there will still be plenty of money left to re-sign Dragic, one of this summer’s coveted free agents.

raptors small logoToronto Raptors: $16 million / $26 million
2012-2013 Contracts: Jose Calerdon, Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza, DeMar DeRozan, James Johnson, Ed Davis, Gary Forbes, Terrance Ross, Solomon Alabi.
Free Agents: Jerryd Bayless (R), Aaron Gray, Julian Wright, Jamaal Magloire, Ben Uzoh.
Important: The Raptors would probably like to retain Jerryd Bayless, but doing so might inhibit their ability to make a run at Steve Nash. For that reason, there has been some talk of the Raptors using their one-time amnesty right on Jose Calderon and his $10 million salary, but the club is only likely to do that if it had good reason to believe that Nash would be amenable to ending his career as a Raptor. Also, if Bayless received an offer that the Raptors thought was too rich for them to match, they could elect to let him walk. In other words, they will be a player in free agency, one way or another.

mavs small logoDallas Mavericks: $12 million / $20 million
2012-2013 Contracts: Dirk Nowtzki, Shawn Marion, Brendan Haywood, Vince Carter, Rodrigue Beaubois, Dominique Jones, Brandan Wright, Jared Cunningham.
Free Agents: Jason Terry, Jason Kidd, Brian Cardinal, Delonte West, Ian Mahinmi, Yi Jianlian.
Important: The Mavericks want Deron Williams and could only afford to tender him a maximum deal if it used its one-time amnesty right on either Shawn Marion or Brendan Haywood. Each of the aforementioned players stand to make $8 million next season, and Haywood’s contract runs through 2015-16. If Williams elects to stay in Brooklyn, it will be interesting to see if Mark Cuban is going to retain Terry and/or Kidd or look elsewhere for a high-priced player. Trading Carter could free an additional $3 million of space. The Mavs also have an $8.2 million trade exception from the Lamar Odom deal, and they are taking a hard look at Anthony Randolph.

wolves small logoMinnesota Timberwolves: $20 million / $30 million
2012-13 Contracts: Kevin Love, Martell Webster, Darko Milicic, Brad Miller, Derrick Williams, Nikola Pekovic, J.J. Berea, Wesley Johnson, Luke Ridnour, Ricky Rubio, Chase Budinger, Wayne Ellington, Michael Lee.
Free Agents: Anthony Randolph, Michael Beasley.
Important: The Wolves decided not to extend qualifying offers to Beasley and Randolph, making both unrestricted free agents. They also reached agreements with Webster and Miller to push back the dates by which their team options must be picked up, which gives them the option of using either player in a trade or declining the team options and clearing another $10 million of space. They are one of five teams interested in signing Brandon Roy, who is prepared to make a comeback after undergoing platelet-rich plasma therapy on his knee. Roy also plans to speak with Chicago, Dallas, Indiana and Golden State.

kings small logoSacramento Kings: $11 million
2012-2013 Contracts: John Salmons, Marcus Thornton, Francisco Garcia, Chuck Hayes, Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, Travis Outlaw, Jimmer Fredette, Hassan Whiteside, Isaiah Thomas, Thomas Robinson.
Free Agents: Jason Thompson (R), Donte Green, Terrance Williams.
Important: After drafting Thomas Robinson, it would be a bit of a surprise for the Kings to match a high offer to Jason Thompson. They have a lot of frontcourt players and might be wise to use some of their manufactured cap space on another ball distributor. Re-signing Thompson would probably leave them with less than $5 million in cap space — although they could double that if they traded Tyreke Evans and did not take back any players in return.

bobcats small logoCharlotte Bobcats: $9 million / $17 million
2012-2013 Contracts: Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, DeSagana Diop, Matt Carroll, Gerald Henderson, Bismack Biyombo, Reggie Williams, Kemba Walker, BJ Mullens, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
Free Agents: D.J. Augustin (R), Derrick Brown (R), Eduardo Najera, Jamario Moon, Cory Higgins, D.J. White.
Important: With a fairly crowded backcourt, it will be interesting to see what the Bobcats elect to do with Augustin. Despite finishing last season with the worst winning percentage in NBA history, the Bobcats have a pretty high payroll for this upcoming NBA season. They attempted to dump Tyrus Thomas and his $8 million salary by dangling the second overall pick in the draft, so since that was unsuccessful, the ‘Cats could potentially amnesty Thomas to free up additional cap space.

spurs small logoSan Antonio Spurs: $7 million
2012-2013 Contracts: Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Stephen Jackson, Tiago Splitter, Matt Bonner, Kawhi Leonard, Cory Joseph, Gary Neal, DeJuan Blair.
Free Agents: Tim Duncan, Danny Green (R), Boris Diaw, Patrick Mills (R), James Anderson.
Important: Don’t expect anything major from the Spurs during free agency. The only way they can manufacture any cap space would be if they elected to not re-sign Tim Duncan, and we all know how likely that is. Jackson, who will earn $10 million this season, can’t be amnestied since he wasn’t on the Spurs roster on July 1, 2011, so look for them to re-sign and add to their core. They have a couple of quality players stashed in Europe.

nuggets small logoDenver Nuggets: $6 million / $13 million
2012-2013 Contracts: Danilo Gallinari, Arron Afflalo, Wilson Chandler, Al Harrington, Chris Andersen, Corey Brewer, Kosta Koufos, Timofey Mozgov, Ty Lawson, Kenneth Faried, Jordan Hamilton, Julyan Stone, Evan Fournier.
FreeAgents: Andre Miller, JaVale McGee (R), Rudy Fernandez (R)
Important: The Nuggets are all but certain to retain JaVale McGee, but in the unlikely event that he receives an offer that they do not match, the Nuggets could have cap space. Rudy Fernandez is expected to give serious consideration to returning to play in Europe, and Andre Miller will probably seek to join a contender. The only two players they could consider using their amnesty rights on are Al Harrington ($7 million) and Chris Anderson ($4.5 million).

bucks small logoMilwaukee Bucks: $5 million
2012-2013 Contracts: Monta Ellis, Beno Udrih, Drew Gooden, Samuel Dalembert, Luc Mbah a Moute, Mike Dunleavy, Ekpe Udoh, Brandon Jennings, Larry Sanders, Tobias Harris, John Henson.
Free Agents: Kwame Brown, Carlos Delfino, Ersan Ilyasova.
Important: Ilyasova is one of the most coveted free agents on the market and the Bucks would like to retain him. He’s easily worth sacrificing the right to get under the cap, so don’t look for the Bucks to go that route. It’d also be a bit of a surprise for them to let Delfino slip away, especially since he recently went on the record as saying he’d like to remain a Buck.

sixers small logoPhiladelphia 76ers: $3 million / $21 million
2012-2013 Contracts: Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner, Jrue Holiday, Nikola Vucevic, Mo Harkless, Arnett Moultrie
Free Agents: Spencer Hawes, Sam Young, Lou Williams, Craig Brackins, Tony Battie, Sam Young, Jodie Meeks, Lavoy Allen
Important: Elton Brand is entering the final year of his deal and his production does not warrant his $18 million salary. If the Sixers use their amnesty right on him, they could find themselves with $21 million in cap space. Lou Williams has opted out of his deal and is now an unrestricted free-agent. He’s an important part of the Sixers’ team, but he may have his hopes set on landing a starting job elsewhere. If the Sixers lose Williams, they may be inclined to amnesty Brand and search the market for some new pieces.

Moke Hamilton is a Senior NBA Columnist for SheridanHoops.com and will be providing the latest news and commentary during the NBA’s free-agency period. Follow him on Twitter to stay up-to date.

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The top 12 restricted free agents

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We told you restricted free agency is tricky. Well, it’s so tricky that the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves decided not to participate in it.

This week, the Grizzlies decided against making a $7.4 million qualifying offer to guard O.J. Mayo while making cheaper QO’s to forwards Marreese Speights and Darrell Arthur. The Timberwolves made the same decision on their $8.2 million qualifying offer to Michael Beasley.

Those decisions make Mayo and Beasley unrestricted free agents – and remove them from our updated list of top RFAs.

Most of theguys on this list will re-sign with their teams. But with the supertax looming next summer, it is no longer a foregone conclusion.

You can also read our updated list of top 25 unrestricted free agents.

1. ERIC GORDON: The clear-cut top choice among RFAs has said he plans to listen to offers from teams other than the Hornets, who reportedly will match any offer he receives, which apparently includes a max offer of $80 million over five years. DESTINATION: New Orleans. The Hornets cannot allow a ballyhooed building block to get away, even after drafting Austin Rivers. THE RIGHT PRICE: Five years, $60 million. He’s not a max player.

2. ROY HIBBERT: Can use his All-Star berth and Indiana’s deep playoff run as bargaining chips and apparently has interest from both Dallas and Houston. He has said it is just a matter of the Pacers stepping up. That sounds like he wants max money. DESTINATION: Indiana, which could have its cap room – and ability to add a competitive piece – wrecked by Hibbert and fellow RFA George Hill. THE RIGHT PRICE: Five years, $55 million. That is just below Al Horford, which sounds right.

3. BROOK LOPEZ: Was super durable until this season, when he played just five games. Could really benefit from Brooklyn’s pursuit of Dwight Howard, because his salary could get an undeserved bump to help the money match in a trade. You can play through him on offense but need to give him a rough-and-tumble sidekick at the other end. DESTINATION: Orlando in a sign-and-trade. THE RIGHT PRICE: Five years, $50 million. He is a notch below Hibbert.

4. RYAN ANDERSON: New Magic GM Rob Hennigan has added some new staff members and been through a draft, crossing some stuff off his punchlist. But he still has to hire a coach, deal with Jameer Nelson opting out and resolve the Dwight Howard mess. While all this is going on, he also has to make sure Anderson – the NBA’s Most Improved Player and a fan favorite – doesn’t get away. Virtually everyone on the Magic’s roster is overpaid. Why not add another? DESTINATION: Orlando. In the wake of Howard’s impending exit, Anderson cannot be allowed to leave. THE RIGHT PRICE: Five years, $45 million. But he may get more.

5. NICOLAS BATUM: One of the few RFAs who actually could end up elsewhere. It all depends on whether new GM Neil Olshey can mend fences with Batum’s agent, who is on record as saying, “The Blazers had their chance.” Olshey drafted a point guard and a center with his lottery picks, which means he is interested in retaining Batum. DESTINATION: Several teams have the cap room to scare off Portland, and Charlotte and/or Phoenix have huge holes at small forward. THE RIGHT PRICE: Five years, $40 million. Anything more from any team constitutes overpaying.

6. JAVALE McGEE: The most enigmatic RFA on the market. He is just 24 and appears to have a much higher ceiling that what he has shown in four seasons. But after being acquired from Washington, he came off the bench behind Timofey Mozgov. And is he ever going to stop the knucklehead stuff and take his profession seriously? An ideal case of someone about to get paid on spec. DESTINATION: Denver. After trading Nene, the Nuggets cannot let him leave. THE RIGHT PRICE: Five years, $40 million. As a young center, he will probably get more.

7. GEORGE HILL: The Pacers have to strike a balance between preserving their salary cap room to pursue another piece that will help them contend with the Heat while retaining both Hibbert and Hill, who is a better player than Darren Collison. However, they could allow Hill to leave if they can upgrade at shooting guard with a free agent such as Gordon (unlikely) or Mayo (more likely). DESTINATION: Indiana. Giving him a long-term deal sends a message to Collison to step up or step off. THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $28 million.

8. AARON BROOKS: Remember him? In 2010, he averaged nearly 20 points per game for Houston and was Most Improved Player. Less than a year later, he lost his starting job to Kyle Lowry and was traded for Goran Dragic. He jumped to China during the lockout, but Phoenix retained his rights and plans to make him a qualifying offer, making him a nice insurance policy against Steve Nash’s uncertain future. DESTINATION: Phoenix. Our gut says Nash is bound for New York. But Brooks will generate buzz on the open market. THE RIGHT PRICE: Five years, $30 million.

9. JASON THOMPSON: His minutes and production have dropped since the arrival of DeMarcus Cousins, which may help the Kings a bit in negotiations. So will the drafting of power forward Thomas Robinson. Sacramento has a recent history of overpaying ordinary players (Cisco Garcia, John Salmons, Travis Outlaw, Chuck Hayes). Thompson is a better player than all of them. DESTINATION: Sacramento. If the Kings are smart, they will let another team set the market . THE RIGHT PRICE: Five years, $30 million. With the past overpayments to role players and Cousins and Tyreke Evans looming as extension candidates, the Kings need this number to be reasonable.

10. OMER ASIK: When we last saw him, he was missing clutch free throws, and that will not change. But what should be noted was that he was on the floor at the end of a do-or-die game for the Bulls, who rely heavily on his defense and rebounding. In a fallow market for centers, he could get remarkably rich – or Chicago’s team salary could get turned inside out if it has to match a silly offer. DESTINATION: Chicago, which may cut loose some or all of the non-guaranteed deals of Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver and C.J. Watson to keep its payroll under control. But Charlotte, Portland, Dallas and the LA Clippers all have the minutes and the cap room to make things hairy for the Bulls. Remember Jim McIlvaine? Marcin Gortat? THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $21 million.

11. JEREMY LIN: Strongly benefited from arbitration ruling as the Knicks can match any offer received by Lin, whose popularity and marketing possibilities already have made him overpriced. Yes, he became an unlikely hero when he saved New York’s season. But he is seeking a multi-year deal based on a mere two months of sustained solid play. DESTINATION: Not going anywhere, but could share the point with a veteran. THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $21 million.

12. COURTNEY LEE: He has gone from a Finals team to a 70-loss team to a lottery team but has not forgotten how to shoot, as his career 39 percent mark from the arc will attest. Last season, he averaged 14.0 points as a starter for the Rockets, who appear to be consumed with landing a true superstar and may use Lee in a sign-and-trade. DESTINATION: Likely elsewhere. If you were the Bulls, would you rather have Rip Hamilton or Lee? And what if the Spurs decide to swap out Danny Green for Lee? THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $16 million.

FIVE MORE TO TRACK: D.J. Augustin, G; Jerryd Bayless, G; Landry Fields, F; J.J. Hickson, F; Brandon Rush, G.

Chris Bernucca is a regular contributor to SheridanHoops.com. His columns appear Wednesday and Sunday. You can follow him on Twitter.

 

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Top 25 Unrestricted Free Agents – Part II

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13. O.J. MAYO: The Grizzlies made qualifying offers to forwards Marreese Speights and Darrell Arthur but not Mayo, whose $7.4 million would have put Memphis well into supertax territory. The combo guard is free to sign with any team but may have to take a bit of a pay cut. He is just 24, makes 3-pointers and can attack off the dribble. But the market is filled with veteran shooting guards. DESTINATION?: Indiana tried to trade for him two years ago and has the cap room to outbid others. Chicago and New York would be good fits via the mid-level exception.

14. ANDREI KIRILENKO. Took a one-year hiatus to CSKA Moscow in his native Russia and dominated in the Euroleague, so the 31-year-old clearly has plenty left in the tank. Signed a three-year contract that has an out to return to the NBA and there will definitely be interest in his defensive versatility and veteran knowhow. DESTINATION?: The Raptors and Nets already are said to be interested.

15. JAMAL CRAWFORD: Will opt out of the one year and $5 million left on his contract, which puts him right back where he was a year ago: believing he will get more on the open market and ending up disappointed. He shot 38 percent last season, his lowest mark since his 2000-01 rookie campaign. DESTINATION?: Could be a less expensive consolation prize for a team unsuccessful in chasing Lou Williams.

16. JASON KIDD: He turns 40 next season and has said recently that he will (a) take a one-year deal and (b) wants to play with Deron Williams. He believes that will be in Dallas but isn’t opposed to returning to the Nets for their maiden season in Brooklyn. As a 15-minute backup schooling subs with his smarts, he probably has more than one year left in him. DESTINATION?: He seems attached to Williams, with whom he shares an agent. But Chicago – where he could keep the seat warm for Derrick Rose and hold C.J. Watson’s hand – is secretly intriguing.

17. RAMON SESSIONS: Decided to opt out of his final year at $4.55 million, probably thinking the Lakers need him and will pay him more in a multi-year deal. But he could get left holding the bag if Mitch Kupchak figures out a way to convince Williams or Nelson that playing alongside Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum for the next four years might not be so bad. DESTINATION?: If not the Lakers, how about a mid-level exception deal from the Bulls? They need to find someone better than C.J. Watson to replace Derrick Rose. The Thunder are a long shot if they want to get younger than Derek Fisher.

18. CARL LANDRY: When the Hornets traded Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza, the possibility of Landry remaining in New Orleans increased – but not at the $9 million he made last season. He is only 28 and shoots 50 percent from the field. DESTINATION?: If not the Hornets, then whichever team unsuccessfully chases Bass could use Landry as a consolation prize.

19. MICHAEL BEASLEY: Hard to believe this 23-year-old potent scorer is about to join his third team in five seasons, but that’s what happens when you refuse to work on any other aspect of your game. Minnesota declined his qualifying offer of $8.2 million, and he won’t get that in free agency. But someone will find his offensive skill set desirable. DESTINATION?: The Bobcats and Cavaliers both desperately need scoring at the small forward slot.

20. MICKAEL PIETRUS: Really boosted his stock with a strong postseason for the Celtics – which has been his M.O. in Golden State and Orlando as well. Defense, 3-point shooting and willingness to come off the bench should make him very desirable. DESTINATION?: The Celtics have been a good fit, but so would the Knicks and Nets.

Rashard Lewis Wizards21. RASHARD LEWIS: He is done as a starter in this league, and as soon as he acknowledges that he will be able to re-invent himself as a slightly more diverse version of Steve Novak. He turns 33 in August and needs to come off the bench to hide the defensive deficiencies created by his knee woes. DESTINATION?: Lewis and Jordan Hill are a better bench big tandem that the joke duo of Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy that the Lakers tried to get by with last season.

22. NICK YOUNG: Until he improves his shot selection, defends better and puts the high school hijinks behind him, he will be viewed as a backup. But the 27-year-old can score in bunches – as he showed on occasion in the playoffs – and he does have 3-point range. DESTINATION?: The Clippers have a handful of guards – Young, Randy Foye, Chauncey Billups – potentially in flux. This is one they should keep at no more than mid-level money. He could fill a hole in Minnesota as well.

23. RANDY FOYE: Has averaged nearly 12 points and better than three assists per game since entering the league six years ago. Will never be a knockdown shooter but has 3-point range (career-high 127 this season) and makes his free throws. Still just 28 and may get better in the right situation. DESTINATION?: The Mavericks, Thunder, Blazers, Knicks and Wizards all have a need for Foye’s skill set. He will come cheap because there are bigger names in front of him.

24. GERALD GREEN: Is a half-season of career highs enough to convince folks he’s here to stay? It won’t cost a lot to find out. Still just 26, he could be the steal of the summer if his willingness to work approaches his athleticism and energy. A three-year, $12 million deal probably gets it done. DESTINATION?: If the Nets can land Howard, this is one of the pieces they should keep. Milwaukee, Dallas and the Lakers all should take a long look.

25. BORIS DIAW: Clearly needs to be in the right situation, as his apathy in Charlotte and his enthusiasm in San Antonio demonstrated. But his all-around offensive skills and ability to play multiple positions will make him attractive. Now 30 years old, still doesn’t defend very well and his days of making $9 million are over. DESTINATION?: Would love to stay with Spurs given his kinship with fellow Frenchman Tony Parker. A losing team would have to overpay him.

TEN OTHERS TO WATCH: Chauncey Billups, Marcus Camby, C; G; Tim Duncan, F-C; Raymond Felton, G; Spencer Hawes, C; Jordan Hill, F-C; Antawn Jamison, F; Andre Miller, G; Ian Mahinmi, C; Delonte West, G.

Chris Bernucca is a regular contributor to SheridanHoops.com. His columns appear Wednesday and Sunday. You can follow him on Twitter.

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The top 25 unrestricted free agents

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Free agency started Sunday midnight ET.

On Monday, the Brooklyn Nets and Dallas Mavericks are expected to make an unrelenting push for All-Star point guard Deron Williams, who is clearly the best available player.

The team that lands Williams also has the best chance of acquiring superstar center Dwight Howard, who is not a free agent but has said that he would like to play alongside Williams.

In terms of flexibility, the Nets have the inside track. They can offer Williams more money – $101 million over five years opposed to $75  million over four years should Williams decide to change teams.

The Nets also have the cap room to offer Howard a maximum contract extension should they acquire him in a trade. They also are believed to be willing to take back Hedo Turkoglu’s cumbersome contract in a deal for Howard, who is not a free agent.

What the Nets don’t have is any sort of recent track record of winning. They have missed the playoffs for five straight years and are trying to lure Williams and Howard with the promise of building an instant contender in a glistening new arena in the league’s biggest market.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks are one year removed from a championship, still have Dirk Nowitzki and play in Williams’ hometown. They cleared some salary cap room with the trade of Lamar Odom but still have to find a taker for Shawn Marion and likely use the amnesty clause on Brendan Haywood while convincing Williams to take less money.

For teams not in the running for Williams and/or Howard, there are plenty of consolation prizes in a constantly changing player pool. Over the last couple of days, Kevin Garnett apparently has come off the market, while O.J. Mayo and Jameer Nelson are on the market.

Our list of top 25 free agents is below, updated with some shuffling and a couple of new names.

1. DERON WILLIAMS: By far the top prize, he apparently is considering only the Nets or his hometown Mavericks, where he would play alongside Nowitzki – and keep Dallas’ far-fetched plan to land both Williams and Howard in play. Nowitzki spoke with Williams this week and believes his team’ s chance of landing him is 50-50. DESTINATION?: Brooklyn. The Nets still have the best chance of landing Howard because (a) they can re-sign Williams for more money and (b) they have said they will take back Turkoglu.

2. GORAN DRAGIC: The 26-year-old lefthander from Slovenia is the consolation prize of the Deron Williams sweepstakes and is going to make some team very happy. In 28 games as a starter, he averaged 18.0 points, 8.4 assists and 1.8 steals while shooting 49 percent from the field and 38 percent from the arc. DESTINATION?: Dragic’s team is the Rockets, who moved Samuel Dalembert to create more salary cap room but were unsuccessful in trying to parlay multiple low draft picks into a high pick to deal to Orlando for Howard. Expect Portland to make a strong push.

3. ERSAN ILYASOVA: Just 25, the native of Turkey is not your typical allergic-to-paint European big man. He is coming off his best season (13.0 ppg, 8.8 rpg, .492 shooting) and had some monster games on the backboards. After averaging under 28 minutes per game, he is ready to become a 36-minute player. DESTINATION?: He could command eight figures annually on the open market, and the Bucks may be willing to let him walk now that they have Dalembert. He could become one of the players the Hornets overpay to lure to New Orleans.

4. STEVE NASH: Last week’s arbitration ruling giving Early Bird rights to Jeremy Lin increased the chances of the 38-year-old Nash finishing his career in New York, where he already spends his summers and would be joining a playoff team – such as it is. If he signed with the Knicks, that would get the ball out of Carmelo Anthony’s selfish hands. Keep in mind that Phoenix’s training staff has been a big reason for his relative health of late. DESTINATION?: The Knicks are a lot closer to contending than the Suns, who have made a qualifying offer to restricted free agent Aaron Brooks.

5. GERALD WALLACE: Will officially opt out after waffling all season, turning his back on $9.5 million for some long-term security. He has reportedly reached a handshake agreement on a four-year, $40 million contract, but he can still be used in a sign-and-trade for Dwight Howard. DESTINATION?: Wherever Wallace lands, this likely will be his last multi-year contract. He would fix a lot of problems for the Timberwolves or the Raptors, who have huge holes at small forward and need veteran leadership in the locker room.

6. KRIS HUMPHRIES: Has averaged a double-double for two straight seasons, including career highs of 13.8 points and 11.0 rebounds this season. He also is a good fit for many teams because his points come without having plays run for him. Made $8 million this season and will want at least that much in a multi-year deal. DESTINATION?: The Magic in a sign-and-trade package for Howard.

7. RAY ALLEN: Already has had the surgery to remove the bone spurs from his ankle that clearly bothered him in the postseason and – along with his advancing age of 36 – may cost him a bit on the open market. The emergence of Avery Bradley and the re-signing of Kevin Garnett in Boston may mean he is moving on, which will make another team very happy. Allen is still the game’s best shooter, and coming off the bench hides his shaky defense. DESTINATION?: The Heat are expected to make a hard push, but the Celtics can offer him much more – if they want to. The Suns, who have loads of cap room, also reportedly are in the picture.

8. JAMEER NELSON: His decision to opt out of the final year of his contract at $9 million was a strange one because it appears to help the Magic more than it helps him. New GM Rob Hennigan now can can flip the script on the Nets by trying to convince Howard he can lure Williams to Orlando in a sign-and-trade that sends back a package including Nelson, 30, whose scoring and shooting were his lowest in four years. DESTINATION?: He would be a great fit in Portland, where his pick-and-roll skills would be an ideal  complement to Aldridge. If the Lakers don’t want to bring back Ramon Sessions, that would be a good fit as well.

9. JASON TERRY: Now 34, he needs 2,513 points to surpass Eddie Johnson for the highest-scoring non-All-Star. Still averaging 15 points, still supremely confident, still a threat from the arc, still a factor in the fourth quarter. But his days of eight figures per season are over. DESTINATION?: It’s hard to imagine him not with the Mavericks, but he wants a multi-year deal to stay – and Dallas needs to renounce him if it wants to land Williams and Howard. Boston, New York, San Antonio and the Los Angeles Lakers would be good fits using the mid-level exception.

10. CHRIS KAMAN: In a disjointed season that included a trade to a bad team, another injury and a brief benching while the Hornets explored a trade, Kaman still averaged 13.1 points and 7.8 rebounds, a slight uptick from his last season with the Clippers. Although he is 30 and has had significant injury issues over the last five years, he is a quality center, which are in short supply. DESTINATION?: When the Hornets won the lottery, that punched his ticket out of town. The best fit is Portland, which needs a center to take the heat off LaMarcus Aldridge and has cap room.

11. LOU WILLIAMS: Has decided to opt out and couldn’t have picked a better time, coming off his best season in a free agency class short on true stars. Only 25, he is a third guard who could get a boatload of money thrown at him from a desperate team. DESTINATION?: If the Sixers bring him back, someone else – Andre Iguodala or Evan Turner – is headed out in a trade. Or Williams could land in Cleveland and Charlotte, who have cap room and need backcourt scoring.

12. BRANDON BASS: Another strike-while-the-iron-is-hot guy who opted out of his last year at $4 million after the best season of his career and could nearly double his salary if he finds a desperate team. He is also just 27, and we will ask this again: What does Carlos Boozer do that Bass can’t? DESTINATION?: The Celtics certainly would like to keep him and may be able to based on Garnett’s cut in salary but drafted two bigs just in case. Would be a great fit in LA if the Lakers move Pau Gasol and don’t take back a power forward.

For picks 13-25, plus others to watch, click here.

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