StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Some alarming Pacers stats from a game they should have won

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Paul GeorgeFor the Indiana Pacers, the game was theirs for the taking. Dwyane Wade fouled out. They won the free throw and rebounding battles while forcing 21 Miami Heat turnovers. Yet when the final buzzer sounded and LeBron James’ layup gave the Heat a 103-102 overtime win in Wednesday night’s Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Indiana was left sulking and stunned while asking themselves “what the hell happened?”

“It just felt like everything was in our favor,” Pacers forward Paul George said. If Indiana, as expected, gets eliminated in the league’s semifinal round, the team will undoubtedly be kicking itself for not taking this game on the road.

So what the hell happened? Forget about the Pacers leaving Roy Hibbert out of the game on the final play in overtime, which will be widely covered and discussed in other articles and forums. Indiana was soundly defeated at its own game. How else could you explain the frontcourt-loaded Pacers being outscored by 12 in the paint, 60-48?

ESPN Stats & Info pointed out that Miami averaged just 30.7 points in the paint against Indiana during the regular season, but nearly doubled that total in Game 1.

ESPN Stats & Info

ESPN Stats & Info

birdmanThere are still more questions Indiana has to address after its series-opening defeat. How could LeBron James have more rebounds (10) than Hibbert (9), David West (5) and George (4)? If Indiana is such a strong defensive team inside, how could Chris Bosh and Chris Andersen combine for 33 points on 13-for-18 shooting from the floor?

Indiana is supposed to be an excellent defensive team at every position, yet it was Miami’s perimeter defense that proved to be superior. How else could you explain the starting Pacers backcourt of George Hill and Lance Stephenson combining for 12 points on 4-for-19 shooting?

“Two great teams just throwing punch for punch,” Indiana coach Frank Vogel said. “Our spirit is very high, very confident. We know we can play with this basketball team.”

LOOKING FOR MIAMI HEAT TICKETS? LOOK NO FURTHER

If Indiana wants to have a puncher’s chance in this series, the team also has to stop the star players not named LeBron. Namely, Wade and Bosh. Despite fouling out, Wade had a really strong effort, scoring 19 points on 9-for-15 from the floor to go with six rebounds, five assists and three steals.

Wade & Bosh FG % Points Reb Assists FTA
Playoff Avg 46.3 25.9 12.1 6.3 5.9
Game 1 57.7 36 8 6 10

For a team that prides itself on its defensive play, it allowed Wade and Bosh to shoot 11 percentage points better than its playoff average and score 10 more points.

dwyane_wadeThere were, of course, a lot of things that Indiana did well. Otherwise, they would not have come so close to taking Game 1 on the road. Hibbert, George and West combined to shoot 24-for-41 from the field with a total of 72 points. Tyler Hansbrough canceled out Andersen’s production by scoring 10 points on 5-for-8 shooting, while getting six rebounds in just 12 minutes. Perhaps he needs more time on the floor. Indiana held Norris Cole and Ray Allen to six total points on 2-for-12 shooting.

Despite all those things that the Pacers were successful in doing, there are several key corrections they need to make going forward. There’s no way Indiana can be successful by being outscored in the paint. Hill and Stephenson need to contribute offensively, and the team has to reduce its number of turnovers; it was 20 in Game 1 and a woeful 16.2 per game this postseason. That won’t fly against a team as good as Miami. It’s also going to be difficult to contain bench players like Allen, Cole and Shane Battier all series long, but Indiana has the defensive stoppers to limit the production of Wade and Bosh.

Indiana certainly came close to taking Game 1, but there’s still a ton the team has to do to avoid losing this series in four or five games.

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

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StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Knicks lucky to be alive and how San Antonio eliminated Golden State

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The conference finals should be set. If not for Indiana’s horrid Thursday night performance against the Knicks, San Antonio’s Game 6 victory over Golden State would have ended the NBA’s second round. How did the Spurs end up taking the final game of what looked like an incredibly tight and engaging series?

Knicks are lucky to still be alive

Miami Heat v Indiana Pacers - Game FourLet’s not sugarcoat this: The Knicks are lucky to be in the playoffs right now, and are only still alive because the Pacers laid a complete egg in Thursday night’s Game 5 at Madison Square Garden.

Indiana shot 36.2 percent, missed 14 free throws and committed 19 turnovers in its 85-75 loss to New York, one it will want back if it somehow loses the next two games (and the series) to the Knicks.

“We’ve just got to play more solid. There’s no other way to put it,” Pacers coach Frank Vogel said. That’s putting it mildly.

The Indiana frontcourt of Roy Hibbert, David West and Paul George shot a combined 17-for-42 and the Pacers still only lost by 10. The Knicks didn’t really help themselves in any way either. Consider these facts:

  • New York got VoluMelo instead of Carmelo Anthony, with the Knicks star shooting 12-for-28 from the field while only attempting four free throws.
  • Despite forcing 19 turnovers and finishing a plus-eight on that front, Indiana still scored more points off turnovers, 14, than the Knicks’ 12.
  • The Knicks were out-rebounded by three and took 16 fewer free throws than the Pacers, but won because Indiana totally coughed up the game.

woodson“I was totally impressed because we met the challenge,” Knicks coach Mike Woodson said. “I think as a coach you come into games like this and you want to see who’s going to step up and make plays, and I thought we did that tonight. We were the better team in terms of doing that.”

Did Woodson watch the same game everyone else did? The Knicks, other than Chris Copeland, who Woodson decided to finally play after exhausting all his other options, and Kenyon Martin were pretty dreadful offensively. J.R. Smith shot 4-for-11 and was praised for his strong performance, truly indicating that Smith’s standards have been lowered. Ima Shumpert shot 2-for-10, Pablo Prigioni has been marginalized, and the Knicks only won because no Indiana player shot better than 50 percent from the field besides for Ian Mahinmi, who hit both his field goal attempts.

The Knicks could choose to look at this game through rose-colored glasses, but it’s extremely unlikely that Indiana will play this poorly at home on Saturday night. Unless Woodson and his team get its act together, reality will quickly strike and end New York’s season. They’re truly fortunate to still be in this series.

How San Antonio eliminated Golden State

Stephen Curry On Sunday, Golden State seemed to have figured San Antonio out with a rousing overtime win to knot the series at two games apiece. Several Warriors were making crucial contributions, there was teamwork, balance and perseverance. Some Sheridan Hoops guy even wrote a column about how Golden State had a realistic chance of beating the vaunted Spurs.

So what changed over the last two games? Two key Golden State players basically ran out of gas.

As much as Stephen Curry has deserved the heaping helpings of praise he’s received this postseason, it was clear his ankle hindered the hobbling star enough to really affect the Warriors. Take a look at his splits from the first four games to the final two games of the series:

Curry Minutes FG % 3 FG % Points Assists FTA
Games 1-4 45.5 42.5 41 26 6.75 4.25
Games 5-6 37.5 35.9 20 15.5 7 0

Andrew Bogut Tim DuncanThe minutes played are distorted because of the two overtime games in the first four, but Curry’s huge drop-off in 3-point field goal percentage and points scored can be logically attributed to his ankle injuries. As sensational of a player Curry is, he needed to be the focal point of Golden State’s offense to have a chance to knock off the Spurs. He didn’t shoot a single free throw over the final two games, a stat that encapsulates his limitations on Tuesday and Thursday.

The other major factor in the Warriors’ demise is the Andrew Bogut injury finally catching up to him. “I was running on fumes the whole series,” Bogut told the AP after Game 6. After averaging 15.4 rebounds in his previous five games, Bogut was limited to just 40 total minutes in games five and six. After going 2-for-5 with 18 rebounds in Game 4, he went 2-for-5 with 13 total rebounds in the last two contests combined.

It was a tremendous series for Golden State, but injuries to Curry and Bogut caught up with them and ultimately led to the Warriors’ unfortunate ouster.

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

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StatBox Playoff Breakdown- Grit & grind Grizzlies begin with defense and end with victories

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It’s no fun to talk about the struggled of the hurting, reeling, futile Chicago Bulls. They shot roughly 25 percent and scored 65 points without three leading players (if you include Derrick Rose). It almost seems like the Heat feel bad for the Bulls. A more interesting story is of a long-overlooked franchise seizing its window of opportunity to advance further than it ever has before: the hard-nosed Memphis Grizzlies.

Marc GasolWith Russell Westbrook out for Oklahoma City, Memphis knows it can move on to the conference finals for the first time if it defends Kevin Durant decently and plays solid all-around defense. And that’s what they’re doing. Memphis is also the only team to not lose on its home floor this postseason, a streak now up to seven after its 103-97 overtime win over OKC in Monday night’s Game 4. The Grizzlies now lead the series 3-1 and are in great shape to make the NBA’s semifinal round.

Memphis allowed just three points in OT on Monday, and came back from a 17-point deficit early to force the extra session. One huge reason why the Grizzlies are in this advantageous position is its defense of Durant. ESPN Stats & Info pointed out that Durant was 2-for-13 shooting in the fourth quarter and OT and 0-for 7 when Tayshaun Prince guarded him. Prince’s acquisition is one of the several reasons why the Rudy Gay trade was such a success, as outlined in a previous StatBox column.

I wrote before the series that Durant would have to have an other-worldly performance for Oklahoma City to defeat Memphis, and he delivered that over the first two games of the series. But Lionel Hollins and Memphis set its sights on curtailing Durant, and that effort has been undeniably successful. Look at these averages:

Durant Minutes Shots FG % Points Reb Assists FTA
Games 1-2 43.5 23.5 51.1 35.5 13 7.5 11
Games 3-4 47 23 41.3 26 9 6 6
KD hasn't been the same in games 3 and 4.

KD hasn’t been the same in games 3 and 4.

Despite playing for virtually the same amount of time and putting up basically the same amount of field goals, there’s no doubt that Durant has been less affective these past few games as opposed to the pair of games in Oklahoma City. His field goal percentage is a full 10 points lower, and his scoring average has dipped nearly 10 points as well. The rebounds, assists and trips to the free throw line have gone down as well, which can only be attributed to strong defense.

Memphis was able to come back to force overtime in Game 4 by allowing just 38 points in the second half, and a lot of that had to do with Marc Gasol’s exceptional defensive play. The Defensive Player of the Year probably didn’t care about only being named to the All-NBA Defensive Second Team, but he played like one pretty angry grizzly bear on Monday night, pulling down 11 rebounds, blocking six shots and altering several others (not to mention deterring OKC from driving to the hoop, which shows in Durant’s decrease in free throw attempts per game as shown above).

With Durant, Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins in the frontcourt, Oklahoma City isn’t used to being at a disadvantage inside. But not only did Memphis outscore OKC 44-30 in the paint in Game 4, the Grizzlies were plus-seven in the turnover battle (15 to just eight for Memphis) and plus-eight (18-10) in points off those turnovers.

Mike Conley (this week’s regional Sports Illustrated cover boy) only shot 7-for-21 from the field, but was 4-for-10 from three and only committed one turnovers to four by his OKC counterpart Reggie Jackson.

“We are a team that just plays hard and doesn’t quit,” Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins said after the game. “We scratch. We claw. They said grit and grind. I don’t know what the heck that means, but we go out and we just battle. We compete. We’re not the most talented team that’s in the playoffs when we started out. We’re not the most talented team that’s left in the playoffs. But we go and compete.”

Prince and Tony Allen have played standout defense and Zach Randolph has been his usual force inside. Memphis may not have the most talent in the Western Conference, but they’re playing the best defense and aren’t really turning the ball over. Those are two traits that winners possess. so it should come as no surprise that the “Grit & Grind” Grizzlies are currently winning more than ever before.

 Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

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StatBox Playoff Breakdown- Balanced Bay Area attack boosts winning Warriors

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jarrett jackThe Golden State Warriors have had three different leading scorers in its four games this round against San Antonio, which bodes well for the team not only in this series but in the future as well.

With Stephen Curry hobbled by an injured ankle that nearly kept him out of the game altogether, it was the team’s balance that gave Golden State a pivotal Game 4 victory. It was Jarrett Jack’s turn to lead the charge, with 24 points on 9-of-16 shooting from the field in the Warriors’ 97-87 overtime win over the Spurs on Sunday afternoon.

San Antonio will be haunted by its 14-for-25 day from the foul line, especially when both teams shot uncharacteristically poorly from the field. The two highest scoring clubs per game in the postseason shot 38 and 35.5 percent from the field on Sunday, but the difference was Jack’s turnaround effort and the three Warriors who scored at least 22 points in the contest, which included Curry.

Unlike New York’s J.R. Smith, who beat out Jack for the regular season Sixth Man award, Jack has responded with three strong games, shooting 18-for-35 since going a combined 7-for-25 in Game 6 against Denver and Game 1 against the Spurs. Take a look at Jack’s splits this series in wins and losses:

Jarrett Jack FG % Points Rebounds Assists
Wins 56.5 16 4.5 4
Losses 37 13 3.5 1.5

Golden State tends to win when Jack isn’t a volume shooter, but a more precise player who picks his spots and yields to teammates with better looks (which explains his higher assist totals in wins).

Harrison BarnesThe Warriors also played tremendous defense to close out Game 4, something that should not be discounted against a Spurs team that has a lot of postseason experience, to say the least. ESPN Stats & Info points out that San Antonio shot 16 percent from the field in the final 9:40 of the game (including the extra session).

“We put ourselves in a position to win the game and it’s frustrating because we feel like we gave it away,” Tim Duncan said. But Golden State’s balance, which has included the emergence of several key supporting players, including Harrison Barnes. It’s helped the team win two games in the second round, advancing this far in the playoffs for the first time since 1977.

There were those who thought that Barnes wouldn’t amount to much at the NBA level (this writer included), but he’s really taken his game up a level in the postseason. He notched a career high 26 points on 26 shots on Sunday (not as bad considering how poorly each team shot) to go with 10 rebounds, which is amazing considering he didn’t even average double figures in scoring per game during the regular season.

Barnes Minutes FG % 3 FG % Points Rebounds FTA
Regular Season 25.4 43.9 35.9 9.2 4.1 2.3
1st Round 35.7 45.7 40.6 14.8 5.5 2.9
2nd Round 44.5 40.6 26.7 17.5 8.3 3.8

Barnes’ role has increased incrementally since the end of the regular season, a reflection of his improved comfort level and Mark Jackson’s trust in the rookie. He’s taken on more of the scoring load, and his rebounding numbers have really helped the team as well.

Curry-sportsillustratedAnd, way to bury the lead, Curry, the team’s best player and clearly a rising star in league circles, scored 22 points on 7-of-16 shooting and 5-for-10 from 3-point range on a bum ankle.

“He’s a player that you may see him playing one leg, one arm, and you got to guard him,” Spurs G Manu Ginobili said. “So you got to respect him. He can really go off at any time.”

But teams can no longer just swarm Curry, something Denver tried in the first round, and not have to worry about any huge offensive threat. Jack, Barnes and Klay Thompson are all capable of having standout performances, and Andrew Bogut has been a huge force in the interior in the postseason. He’s averaged 15.4 rebounds over his last five games, including 18 caroms in Game 4.

The evolution of this Golden State Warrior team is not just the vast improvement in Curry’s game. It’s that the team has several offensive threats that provides balance and ensures that the team won’t have too many flat nights on the court. And that will ensure that Bay Area basketball will be exciting and relevant for years to come.

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

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StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Miami’s adjustments and how Golden State has the pieces to shock the Spurs

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Moving past the obvious in Miami’s Game 2 triumph

Carlos BoozerHow do you push past the obvious insight about Miami’s all-around 115-78 beatdown of Chicago in Wednesday night’s Game 2? What can you say besides the Heat shooting 60 percent to 35.5 percent for the Bulls? Let’s break down the major things that changed on both sides that helped lead to such a different result in Miami’s favor:

Miami’s Big Three was way more efficient in Game 2, perhaps with more determination and urgency in their games. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh scored five more points in Game 2 than they did in Game 1 (28-23) despite taking five fewer shots. LeBron James is going to be the best player in the world every time he plays, but his two All-Star sidekicks will be key against a normally good Chicago defense.

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