StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Knicks lucky to be alive and how San Antonio eliminated Golden State

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The conference finals should be set. If not for Indiana’s horrid Thursday night performance against the Knicks, San Antonio’s Game 6 victory over Golden State would have ended the NBA’s second round. How did the Spurs end up taking the final game of what looked like an incredibly tight and engaging series?

Knicks are lucky to still be alive

Miami Heat v Indiana Pacers - Game FourLet’s not sugarcoat this: The Knicks are lucky to be in the playoffs right now, and are only still alive because the Pacers laid a complete egg in Thursday night’s Game 5 at Madison Square Garden.

Indiana shot 36.2 percent, missed 14 free throws and committed 19 turnovers in its 85-75 loss to New York, one it will want back if it somehow loses the next two games (and the series) to the Knicks.

“We’ve just got to play more solid. There’s no other way to put it,” Pacers coach Frank Vogel said. That’s putting it mildly.

The Indiana frontcourt of Roy Hibbert, David West and Paul George shot a combined 17-for-42 and the Pacers still only lost by 10. The Knicks didn’t really help themselves in any way either. Consider these facts:

  • New York got VoluMelo instead of Carmelo Anthony, with the Knicks star shooting 12-for-28 from the field while only attempting four free throws.
  • Despite forcing 19 turnovers and finishing a plus-eight on that front, Indiana still scored more points off turnovers, 14, than the Knicks’ 12.
  • The Knicks were out-rebounded by three and took 16 fewer free throws than the Pacers, but won because Indiana totally coughed up the game.

woodson“I was totally impressed because we met the challenge,” Knicks coach Mike Woodson said. “I think as a coach you come into games like this and you want to see who’s going to step up and make plays, and I thought we did that tonight. We were the better team in terms of doing that.”

Did Woodson watch the same game everyone else did? The Knicks, other than Chris Copeland, who Woodson decided to finally play after exhausting all his other options, and Kenyon Martin were pretty dreadful offensively. J.R. Smith shot 4-for-11 and was praised for his strong performance, truly indicating that Smith’s standards have been lowered. Ima Shumpert shot 2-for-10, Pablo Prigioni has been marginalized, and the Knicks only won because no Indiana player shot better than 50 percent from the field besides for Ian Mahinmi, who hit both his field goal attempts.

The Knicks could choose to look at this game through rose-colored glasses, but it’s extremely unlikely that Indiana will play this poorly at home on Saturday night. Unless Woodson and his team get its act together, reality will quickly strike and end New York’s season. They’re truly fortunate to still be in this series.

How San Antonio eliminated Golden State

Stephen Curry On Sunday, Golden State seemed to have figured San Antonio out with a rousing overtime win to knot the series at two games apiece. Several Warriors were making crucial contributions, there was teamwork, balance and perseverance. Some Sheridan Hoops guy even wrote a column about how Golden State had a realistic chance of beating the vaunted Spurs.

So what changed over the last two games? Two key Golden State players basically ran out of gas.

As much as Stephen Curry has deserved the heaping helpings of praise he’s received this postseason, it was clear his ankle hindered the hobbling star enough to really affect the Warriors. Take a look at his splits from the first four games to the final two games of the series:

Curry Minutes FG % 3 FG % Points Assists FTA
Games 1-4 45.5 42.5 41 26 6.75 4.25
Games 5-6 37.5 35.9 20 15.5 7 0

Andrew Bogut Tim DuncanThe minutes played are distorted because of the two overtime games in the first four, but Curry’s huge drop-off in 3-point field goal percentage and points scored can be logically attributed to his ankle injuries. As sensational of a player Curry is, he needed to be the focal point of Golden State’s offense to have a chance to knock off the Spurs. He didn’t shoot a single free throw over the final two games, a stat that encapsulates his limitations on Tuesday and Thursday.

The other major factor in the Warriors’ demise is the Andrew Bogut injury finally catching up to him. “I was running on fumes the whole series,” Bogut told the AP after Game 6. After averaging 15.4 rebounds in his previous five games, Bogut was limited to just 40 total minutes in games five and six. After going 2-for-5 with 18 rebounds in Game 4, he went 2-for-5 with 13 total rebounds in the last two contests combined.

It was a tremendous series for Golden State, but injuries to Curry and Bogut caught up with them and ultimately led to the Warriors’ unfortunate ouster.

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

Bernucca: Who is stepping up in the postseason?

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Curry-sportsillustratedOne of the most intriguing elements of the NBA playoffs is what the spotlight reveals about certain players – especially those who weren’t expected to be in the spotlight at all.

We expect established superstars such as LeBron James and Kevin Durant to welcome the pressure of the postseason and elevate their play. That is part of the reason they are among the game’s best players.

It is also not that surprising to see very good players such as Stephen Curry and Mike Conley lift their games. The only doubts we may have had were created by the fact that their previous postseason experience was limited.

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Sheridan: Four Players Who Need to Step Up

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Well, we have one series tied at 2-2, and if the basketball gods smile on us we are on our way to four Game 7s. We can’t all be that lucky, can we? But we can hope. (Note to self: Powerball reminder).

But if we are going to get to four Game 7s, we are going to need to see some improvement from at least one player on each trailing team (plus the Warriors, who are tied 2-2 but are at a substantial experience deficit against the time-tested San Antonio Spurs).

More on those four guys in the video below — plus some data to back up my points:

StatBox Playoff Breakdown- Balanced Bay Area attack boosts winning Warriors

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jarrett jackThe Golden State Warriors have had three different leading scorers in its four games this round against San Antonio, which bodes well for the team not only in this series but in the future as well.

With Stephen Curry hobbled by an injured ankle that nearly kept him out of the game altogether, it was the team’s balance that gave Golden State a pivotal Game 4 victory. It was Jarrett Jack’s turn to lead the charge, with 24 points on 9-of-16 shooting from the field in the Warriors’ 97-87 overtime win over the Spurs on Sunday afternoon.

San Antonio will be haunted by its 14-for-25 day from the foul line, especially when both teams shot uncharacteristically poorly from the field. The two highest scoring clubs per game in the postseason shot 38 and 35.5 percent from the field on Sunday, but the difference was Jack’s turnaround effort and the three Warriors who scored at least 22 points in the contest, which included Curry.

Unlike New York’s J.R. Smith, who beat out Jack for the regular season Sixth Man award, Jack has responded with three strong games, shooting 18-for-35 since going a combined 7-for-25 in Game 6 against Denver and Game 1 against the Spurs. Take a look at Jack’s splits this series in wins and losses:

Jarrett Jack FG % Points Rebounds Assists
Wins 56.5 16 4.5 4
Losses 37 13 3.5 1.5

Golden State tends to win when Jack isn’t a volume shooter, but a more precise player who picks his spots and yields to teammates with better looks (which explains his higher assist totals in wins).

Harrison BarnesThe Warriors also played tremendous defense to close out Game 4, something that should not be discounted against a Spurs team that has a lot of postseason experience, to say the least. ESPN Stats & Info points out that San Antonio shot 16 percent from the field in the final 9:40 of the game (including the extra session).

“We put ourselves in a position to win the game and it’s frustrating because we feel like we gave it away,” Tim Duncan said. But Golden State’s balance, which has included the emergence of several key supporting players, including Harrison Barnes. It’s helped the team win two games in the second round, advancing this far in the playoffs for the first time since 1977.

There were those who thought that Barnes wouldn’t amount to much at the NBA level (this writer included), but he’s really taken his game up a level in the postseason. He notched a career high 26 points on 26 shots on Sunday (not as bad considering how poorly each team shot) to go with 10 rebounds, which is amazing considering he didn’t even average double figures in scoring per game during the regular season.

Barnes Minutes FG % 3 FG % Points Rebounds FTA
Regular Season 25.4 43.9 35.9 9.2 4.1 2.3
1st Round 35.7 45.7 40.6 14.8 5.5 2.9
2nd Round 44.5 40.6 26.7 17.5 8.3 3.8

Barnes’ role has increased incrementally since the end of the regular season, a reflection of his improved comfort level and Mark Jackson’s trust in the rookie. He’s taken on more of the scoring load, and his rebounding numbers have really helped the team as well.

Curry-sportsillustratedAnd, way to bury the lead, Curry, the team’s best player and clearly a rising star in league circles, scored 22 points on 7-of-16 shooting and 5-for-10 from 3-point range on a bum ankle.

“He’s a player that you may see him playing one leg, one arm, and you got to guard him,” Spurs G Manu Ginobili said. “So you got to respect him. He can really go off at any time.”

But teams can no longer just swarm Curry, something Denver tried in the first round, and not have to worry about any huge offensive threat. Jack, Barnes and Klay Thompson are all capable of having standout performances, and Andrew Bogut has been a huge force in the interior in the postseason. He’s averaged 15.4 rebounds over his last five games, including 18 caroms in Game 4.

The evolution of this Golden State Warrior team is not just the vast improvement in Curry’s game. It’s that the team has several offensive threats that provides balance and ensures that the team won’t have too many flat nights on the court. And that will ensure that Bay Area basketball will be exciting and relevant for years to come.

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

SH Blog: Jackson says Ellis-Bogut trade changed culture, Doyel rips Derrick Rose

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GSW_Jackson_MarkMark Jackson is the coach of the Golden State Warriors. If you ask him, though, he will probably tell you that he is, first and foremost, a pastor.

Generally speaking, Jackson is a good man. He respects all of his players and treats them as equals. He would never speak ill towards any of them and never utters a curse word – not easy to do when you’re involved with the game of basketball.

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