StatBox Playoff Breakdown: More problems in Bucks’ backcourt, Williams comes up small again and Memphis finds its defense

Leave a comment

Just in the nick of time, Memphis found its elite defense on Thursday night. But where was it hiding? Should the Nets reconsider its contract extension of its general manager after its offensive performance against the Bulls? How can Brooklyn get back in this series? Is Milwaukee’s backcourt worth keeping? The answers to all these questions and a whole lot more in today’s StatBox breakdown.

Monta EllisMilwaukee’s backcourt problems continue

There are very few teams that could survive a poor night in the playoffs from one of its stars. Unfortunately for the Bucks, they played one of those teams in the Miami Heat. Dwyane Wade shot 1-f0r-12 from the field, but Miami still shot 52 percent from the field in a 104-91 win. The Heat took a 3-0 lead in a series that will mercifully end this weekend.

The question of the Bucks’ future as a team (as currently constituted) is even louder after another subpar game from its star backcourt duo of Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings. It was a 7-for-24 shooting night for the two upcoming free agents, which has been a growing trend in this laugher of a series. One would expect players to shoot worse against a team like the Heat than their regular season averages, but not at this rate. Observe:

Bucks Backcourt Points FG % 3 FG %
Reg. Season 36.7 40.8 33.8
Playoffs 28.7 37.5 17.9

Jennings and Ellis are shooting nearly 16 percent worse from three (a stomach wrenching 7-for-39) than they were during the regular season and are hitting exactly three of eight field goals overall. The team is getting poor play from its top two offensive players, which is one of the reasons why Milwaukee couldn’t capitalize on a night where Wade was awful and Miami committed 20 turnovers (the Bucks had 19 of their own). The Bucks’ season will almost certainly end with its next game, and then the team has to figure out whether Jennings and Ellis are worth holding on to.

Deron Williams struggled to get going last night

Deron Williams struggled to get going last night

Williams comes up limp again

Deron Williams, Brooklyn’s franchise cornerstone and $100 million man, is having a pretty awful series against a physically battered Bulls team playing without Derrick Rose, who would have made this series even more difficult for Williams. Williams is shooting 39.5 percent from the field over the Nets’ three postseason games, and went 5-for-14 in Thursday’s 79-76 loss to go down 2-1 in the series.

In an ironic twist, a lot of the moves General Manager Billy King made over last offseason looked downright foolish just mere hours after the team announced it was signing King to a contract extension. Let’s take a look at how King’s guys are doing in this series:

  • Williams is shooting under 40 percent from the field and 31.3 percent from three while dishing out just four assists on Thursday night.
  • Gerald Wallace, who King signed for $40 million after acquiring him from Portland in a trade that would ultimately bring standout rookie Damian Lillard to the Blazers, shot 2-for-8 in game 3. He’s averaging seven points and 4.3 rebounds per game on 36.4 percent shooting.
  • Kris Humphries is being paid $12 million this season and played a grand total of 40 minutes in the entire series so far with 14 points and eight rebounds.

Sounds like money well spent, and a contract extension well earned, by King. Brook Lopez is a borderline All-Star player, but this Nets team is only going to go as far as Williams takes them. Everyone knows that. Until Williams can carry this team, especially with Joe Johnson being hobbled by plantar fasciitis, Brooklyn will be looking at first round exits for years to come.

marcWe found Memphis’ defense!
It was in Memphis all along! Perhaps the team’s cost cutting prevented the defense from making the flight to Los Angeles. But it was back in full force Thursday night at the FedEx Forum, where the Grizzlies held the Clippers to 38.8 percent shooting from the floor and forced 16 L.A. turnovers in a 94-82 win.

Zach Randolph found his old postseason mojo, scoring 27 points and pulling down 11 rebounds. But it was the team’s defense that got the win, and it’s the defense that will have to keep Memphis around in this series. Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and Jamal Crawford shot a combined 12-for-33 and Mike Conley and Tony Allen finally played to their abilities as top level defenders on Paul.

“We didn’t make any adjustments,” Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins said of defending Paul. “We just played better.”

Hollins may have a point. Memphis just happens to play better defensively at home.

Defensive Splits FG % 3 FG % Turnovers
Home 43.5 33.8 14.7
Road 45 33.9 13.8

That extra 1.5 percent of field goal shooting could mean the difference between victory and defeat, especially in such a closely contested series as this one. This type of defense has to continue, of course, if Memphis doesn’t want to be facing elimination the next time it steps foot on that Staples Center floor.

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle and a writer for Football.com. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

Filed Under: Playoffs, Shlomo's Stat Box Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Milwaukee’s future, Boston’s age and Golden State’s perfect game

Leave a comment

If you enjoy the weekly StatBox column that analytically breaks down some of the NBA’s most pressing and important topic, you’re in luck. Every Tuesday through Thursday during the postseason, the StatBox is expanding into playoff game analysis. You’ll not only find out why each team won and lost, but how different statistical trends can play out over the course of the series and the playoffs as a whole. Today: Milwaukee’s future, Boston’s age and Golden State’s shooting touch.

bjenningsIs This Milwaukee’s Best?
The uncertainty of the Milwaukee Bucks’ future as currently constituted has been well documented. Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis, along with J.J. Redick, could leave at the end of the season, leaving the franchise in flux. Perhaps Jennings and Ellis leaving wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. The two shot a combined 5-for-22 in a 98-86 loss to Miami that gave the Heat a 2-0 series lead.

Jennings isn’t even close to a high-percentage shooter and his PER, win shares per 48 minutes and overall offensive and defensive ratings have either stayed the same or gotten worse from last season. Here’s a look at his basic splits from this season:

Jennings FG % 3FG % Points Assists
Pre All-Star Break 39.5 36.4 18.5 6.1
Post All-Star Break 40.7 39.5 15.6 7.3
Playoffs 31.4 23.5 17 3.5

Jennings shot just under 40 percent during the regular season and probably won’t get close to that percentage against Miami. Is he worth a huge contract? Is Ellis worth a huge contract? He’s improved over the course of the season, but his field goal percentage during the regular season was at its lowest level since his rookie season and his PER is at its lowest level in five years.

Ellis FG % 3FG % Points Assists
Pre All-Star Break 40.1 23.2 18.4 5.5
Post All-Star Break 44 35.1 20.6 7
Playoffs 46.2 11.1 14.5 4

His numbers after the All-Star break are encouraging, but can Bucks GM John Hammond really trust his backcourt for the long haul to build around Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova? Can this team be better than a low level Eastern Conference playoff team unless major changes are made? The answer to these questions will define this franchise’s direction for the next half decade.

Celtics Stars Show Their Age
Kevin GarnettIt’s clearly obvious how much the Boston Celtics miss Rajon Rondo, so that will be the last time his name is discussed this postseason. But Paul Pierce was named as the key player for Boston in this series against the Knicks, and he hasn’t been nearly the offensive catalyst or fulcrum that the team has needed in order to stay competitive in this series.

Pierce’s numbers improved since Rondo  Boston’s point guard went down at the end of January, but the transcendant postseason version of Pierce seems to have disappeared with the passing of time. So has Kevin Garnett provided the team with any spark against the hated New York Knicks? After averaging nearly 15 points per game on 49.6 percent shooting during the regular season, KG was limited to 20 total points on 8-21 shooting at Madison Square Garden.

Jeff Green and Avery Bradley can’t carry a team, and neither can Pierce or Garnett at this point. Perhaps we should have seen this coming, because Garnett’s decline (he only played 16 regular season games after the All-Star break) was fairly evident.

Garnett Games Minutes FG % Points Rebounds
February 11 30.2 48.7 15.7 9.5
March 9 28.3 44 13.7 8.3
April 3 23.4 64.3 12.3 7.7
Playoffs 2 30.5 38.1 10 10

Boston’s age and flaws seemed to have been exposed during the Knicks’ 32-11 third quarter run, and it seems like Father Time has caught up to Pierce and Garnett.

Warriors Pitch Perfect Game In Denver
Stephen CurryThe most points Golden State scored in a game during the regular season was 127 against Sacramento. They lost that game. To go into Denver and score 131 points while shooting 64.6 from the floor and 14-for-25 from three is nothing short of incredible. It’s almost like a pitcher in baseball throwing a perfect game. It’s going to be hard for any team to top the offensive performance the Warriors pulled off in the postseason, on the road, where the home team was 39-3 going into Tuesday’s game at the Pepsi Center. Denver hadn’t lost at home since Jan. 18.

Consider these statistical nuggets per Elias and the AP:

  • No team shot this well from the field in a playoff game since Utah did it on April 25, 1991.
  • No team has scored 131 points in a playoff game since Boston did it to the Lakers in that famous Game 6 close-out game in the 2008 Finals.
  • Denver had not allowed a team to shoot better than 54 percent from the field in a game this season. Golden State shot over 64 percent. On the road. In the playoffs. Without the injured David Lee.

Is this kind of play sustainable? Of course not. Will Denver win this series? Almost certainly. Did Golden State have one of the best offensive playoff performances in recent memory? You bet, and it’s definitely something to marvel at.

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle and a writer for Football.com. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

Filed Under: Playoffs, Shlomo's Stat Box Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , ,

SH Blog: Breakdown of what went wrong for Warriors, writer calls Melo an overrated ball hog

Leave a comment

DEN_Miller_AndreWhen Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets played their first game on Saturday in Game 1 of the opening round of the playoffs, most expected a high-scoring game between two of the better offensive teams in the league.

The final score of the contest? 97-95. Not exactly what we had in mind.

[Related: Why the Warriors can beat the Nuggets in 6 games]

Both teams suffered from what appeared to be a case of the butterflies, and the Warriors actually did a better job of keeping the tempo of the game in their favor, given the circumstances (playing in Denver against the most potent offensive team in the league).

Still, a lot went wrong (if you are a Warriors fan), from Mark Jackson’s decision-making on the defensive end, Klay Thompson’s inability to finish layups (this has been an ongoing issue throughout the season for him) despite his solid overall play, Stephen Curry’s inability to be more aggressive to Jarrett Jack getting annihilated by the 37-year-old Andre Miller. And of course, the team lost David Lee for the season.

Read more

Pages: 1 2 3

Filed Under: Blog, News Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

SH Blog: Prigioni likely for Game 2; Clippers beat Grizzlies at own game; Cavs casting wide coaching net?

Leave a comment

David LeeWe’re one and a half-days into the playoffs, Miami and Milwaukee just tipped off, and so far there haven’t been any big surprises result-wise. But like last year, when Derrick Rose tore his ACL in the first playoff game, one team has already lost a key contributor, with the Warriors’ David Lee going down to a hip injury.

For more details on Lee’s injury, head over here. Also on Sheridan Hoops, we’ve got a roundup of what we learned on the first day of the playoffs from Chris Sheridan, and a column from Jan Hubbard on the Thunder-Rockets matchup.

Now here’s all the latest NBA news and rumors as we wrap up the first weekend of the playoff season. There’s lots more to go, folks.

 

  • In what was anticipated to be perhaps the tightest of the first-round series, the Clippers knocked off the Grizzlies in Game 1. Arash Markazi of ESPNLosAngeles.com writes: “It wasn’t exactly the bruise-fest we expected it would be. The officials didn’t really allow for that, calling 57 fouls and four each on Blake Griffin and Zach Randolph well before the end of the third quarter. It seemed every time Griffin and Randolph were about to go at it, one was called for a foul that led them to the bench. Griffin eventually fouled out with 3:32 left after scoring only 10 points and grabbing five rebounds. Clippers center DeAndre Jordan had an equally subpar game, scoring three points, grabbing eight rebounds and sitting out nearly the entire fourth quarter. Despite those performances, the Clippers not only dominated the game but dominated the boards, outrebounding the Grizzlies 47-23. “It’s going to be physical every single game, that’s the way he likes to play and that’s the way you have to play him,” Griffin said. “As long as at the end of the game we’re winning that rebounding battle and we’re up, I’m cool with it.” “
  • Marc Gasol: "We got beat at our own game."
    April 21, 2013 2:13 am via webReplyRetweetFavorite
    @MadelynBurke
    Madelyn Burke

Some more interesting Clippers talk:

CP3 on Bledsoe: "There’s no way he can be here next year because we probably won’t have enough money to pay him."
April 21, 2013 4:49 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite
@ArashMarkazi
Arash Markazi

CP3 on Bledsoe: "He should be a starting point guard in this league next year.”
April 21, 2013 4:50 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite
@ArashMarkazi
Arash Markazi

CP3 won't talk about his future but the way he's talking about Bledsoe's would lead you to believe CP3 is here long-term.
April 21, 2013 4:50 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite
@ArashMarkazi
Arash Markazi

Bledsoe is under contract next season at $2.6 million but Clippers will certainly be in the market to deal him after CP3 re-signs.
April 21, 2013 4:52 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite
@ArashMarkazi
Arash Markazi

  • Another one of the more exciting matchups on the first day of the playoffs (on paper, going in) was the Nets and the Bulls, and in this one, the Nets came out on top. Here’s Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News: “(Deron) Williams ripped Chicago’s defense to shreds, finishing with 22 points and seven assists, highlighted by that jam in the third quarter that would have been unthinkable just one month ago while he battled ankle injuries. “It just happened,” Williams said. “I just was trying to show some guys in the NBA I might be able to compete in the dunk contest next year. My legs feel good, my ankles feel good right now. I’m excited to be back in the playoffs.” Brook Lopez, competing in his first playoff gamer, pounded the paint, adding 21 points and five rebounds. The Nets shot 56%. “Brooklyn hit us with a haymaker,” Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said.”
  • Noah's foot is absolutely killing him. He iced it twice in the locker room. He says he will play Monday but it looks hard for him to move.
    April 20, 2013 11:36 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite
    @NickFriedell
    Nick Friedell
  • Here’s Marc Berman of the New York Post with some Knicks news: “Knicks coach Mike Woodson said if yesterday had been a Game 7, starting guard Pablo Prigioni likely would have suited up on his balky right ankle in the first-round playoff opener against the Celtics. Woodson said he believes Prigioni will be ready for Game 2 on Tuesday and for the Knicks, that is a good thing. That’s because Woodson started Chris Copeland at the wing, and he appeared hampered by a recent shoulder surgery and seemed a bit overwhelmed in his playoff debut. Copeland, recently a scoring beast, was scoreless in 12:46, going 0 for 3 in the Knicks’ 85-78 win.”
  • Jennings on comments: "What am I supposed to say? Let's try our best and hope to win a game? Everybody's writing us off anyway."
    April 21, 2013 12:15 pm via EchofonReplyRetweetFavorite
    @EthanJSkolnick
    Ethan J. Skolnick

  • Bob Finnan at the News-Herald in northern Ohio looks at some candidates for the Cavs’ now-open coaching job, which he notes is widely rumored to be led by Mike Brown: “A source close to former Miami and Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy said Van Gundy has no interest in coaching any of the three current openings in the NBA: in Philadelphia, Detroit or Cleveland. Ex-Portland and Seattle coach Nate McMillan might have some interest in the Cavs’ job, but if the Sacramento Kings move to Seattle, he’d be earmarked for that position. Former Milwaukee coach Scott Skiles is available. He’s hard-nosed and a defensive coach, but he is known to wear down everyone around him with his relentless style. There are several up-and-coming assistant coaches who could draw interest from Cavs general manager Chris Grant. One of them could be Denver assistant coach Melvin Hunt, who spent several years on Brown’s staff in Cleveland. Hunt also worked under Phil Jackson with the Los Angeles Lakers. He is currently Nuggets coach George Karl’s lead assistant and is well-respected around the league. Hunt has a good background in coaching defense and in developing young talent. He works very closely with the Nuggets’ young stable of big men.”

  • Byron Scott will be candidate in Milwaukee if interim coach Jim Boylan not retained, Bucks sources say.
    April 21, 2013 12:58 pm via Twitter for iPhoneReplyRetweetFavorite
    @SamAmicoFSO
    Sam Amico
Filed Under: Blog, News Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

SH Blog: Jennings thinks Bucks will win in six; Sixers owner would make Bynum trade again

1 Comment

The playoffs start tomorrow. With the schedule for the first weekend released, we can now see which playoff teams the NBA thinks will draw the most viewers. And to nobody’s surprise, the Heat, with their Sunday evening time slot, are one of them. The other game that pulled a prime time slot is the Chicago Bulls visiting the Brooklyn Nets. Which also shouldn’t be surprising, considering they’re two of the biggest markets in the country.

As for who is driving viewers away? Well, the Hawks and the Pacers got stuck with 1 p.m. Sunday, and the Grizzlies and Clippers are playing at 10:30 ET on Saturday, which has to somewhat limit the potential audience.

As for who will actually win the games, check out Chris Sheridan’s pick for the NBA champion, and of course our big index of playoff previews. Plus, Rick Warner has a column up on some of the biggest upsets in NBA history, just in case you think we should declare the Heat champions now and skip the preamble.

  • Andrew BynumThe 76ers will look back on this season as a major disappointment, and a lot of people will look at the Andrew Bynum trade as a big reason why. But Sixers managing owner Josh Harris says he’d make the trade again. Here’s Tom Moore of PhillyBurbs.com: “While Harris, who made his money as a leveraged buyout specialist, admitted the ROI (Return On Investment) with Bynum and the Sixers wasn’t so good this year and they “don’t have a lot to show” for a payroll of $84 million, he said “if I had to make that decision again, I’d make it again” to trade for Bynum. The Sixers dealt Andre Iguodala, young players Nik Vucevic and Moe Harkless, and a protected first-round pick for Bynum and Jason Richardson on Aug. 10. Harris insisted four highly respected doctors approved the trade after seeing MRIs and other test results of Bynum’s knees. “We took a shot with Andrew Bynum and we made a couple of big moves,” Harris said. “Injuries happen. We did what we thought was intelligent risk. Things don’t always work out.”
Filed Under: Blog, News Tagged With: , , , , , , , ,