SH Blog: Did the Grizzlies win Gasol-for-Gasol trade? Cavs like Noel; J.R. Smith a goner from NY?

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NikolozTskitishvili2010It seems like every couple years or so, there’s a dilemma about who to select first overall in the NBA draft, and one of the options is almost always a defense-first center with an “unrefined” offensive game. This year’s model is Nerlens Noel, and right now it’s looking like he’ll go No. 1 unless a team with no need for a center lands the No. 1 pick. Our own Joe Kotoch, whose next Mock Draft goes up Tuesday, has already told you that Orlando and New Orleans will look to trade the pick if they win Tuesday night’s draft lottery.

It’s not hard to see why. Franchise centers are perhaps the hardest thing to find in the NBA, and the truly great ones can absolutely transform a franchise (see: Dwight Howard with the Magic). But past lotteries are absolutely littered with “project” centers that never turned into what so many people thought they could. Darko Milicic, Hasheem Thabeet, Kwame Brown… the list goes on. Does anyone remember Patrick O’Bryant? Nikoloz Tskitishvili? All these guys were drafted in the lottery since 2000. None of them have made an All-Star team, and most are out of the league.

So when the draft order is revealed Tuesday, the team who the ping pong balls favor might end up with a franchise player or a total bust. Or maybe Ben McLemore, whatever he turns out to be. Nothing is for sure. It’s what makes the draft so fun.

Now to the latest NBA news and rumors:

  • With the Grizzlies playing in their first conference finals, it’s time to take a look back at some of the moves that got them where they are today. Peter May of this site has already spoken to Chris Wallace about the Gasol-Gasol trade that was mocked around the league when it was made. More on the subject from Jeff Caplan of NBA.com: “The next move came on Feb. 1, 2008 and will go down as the franchise’s moment of truth. At that moment, however, it was perceived more like the moment of ultimate doom. Wallace agreed to a trade that unleashed shockwaves of ridicule from, yes, the media, but also shockingly from within the league. The backlash, Wallace said, was so fierce that it damaged the team’s ability to conduct business in its own city as it set out to sell critical sponsorships and arena suites for the following season. “People [potential clients] would list off all the big-name people [in the NBA] that had ridiculed us,” Wallace said. “It was like running the 100-meter dash with a 20-pound leg weight.” Everyone knows the deal: Pau Gasol to the Lakers for his chubby, unheralded younger brother Marc Gasol, bust Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton and a couple first-round draft picks. Stunning criticism crushed Wallace for getting fleeced while being backhandedly credited for handing the post-Shaquille O’Neal Lakers the keys to certain championships. “I expect the media to shoot from the hip and not study the deal. That’s to be expected,” Wallace said. “I just shook my head. I had never seen that kind of response from inside the league. I don’t deny that was the assist for two Lakers championships, but we had to shake things up. We had never won a playoff game. We had been in the 20s [wins] and there was complete apathy in our market. Calipari and the Tigers were roaring at the time. When we went around the league, we weren’t going to get a tit-for-tat deal. We wanted to bring our salary structure down, get assets and draft picks. And no one else had a Marc Gasol.” “

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SH Blog: Melo says Knicks are better than Pacers, Nick Young sued for alleged rape

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Tyson ChandlerThe New York Knicks are on the brink of elimination.

That, of course, has caused much  chatter from the team, with plenty of talk about who deserves blame for the team’s demise.

[San Antonio Spurs Tickets]

Tyson Chandler somewhat started it all when he said the team wasn’t playing team basketball. Confronted by Carmelo Anthony about the statement, the center had to clarify his statement, from Al Iannazzone of Newsday:

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StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Miami’s adjustments and how Golden State has the pieces to shock the Spurs

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Moving past the obvious in Miami’s Game 2 triumph

Carlos BoozerHow do you push past the obvious insight about Miami’s all-around 115-78 beatdown of Chicago in Wednesday night’s Game 2? What can you say besides the Heat shooting 60 percent to 35.5 percent for the Bulls? Let’s break down the major things that changed on both sides that helped lead to such a different result in Miami’s favor:

Miami’s Big Three was way more efficient in Game 2, perhaps with more determination and urgency in their games. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh scored five more points in Game 2 than they did in Game 1 (28-23) despite taking five fewer shots. LeBron James is going to be the best player in the world every time he plays, but his two All-Star sidekicks will be key against a normally good Chicago defense.

StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Should too much rest be blamed for Miami’s Game One loss?

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LeBron JamesMany will attribute Miami’s 93-86 Game 1 loss to Chicago on Monday to the seven days of rest the Heat had between its first and second round series. Can we blame the loss on Miami being “rusty,” “over-rested,” or given too much time between series, being punished for quickly finishing off the Milwaukee Bucks a week ago?

“There’s no excuses,” said Miami Head Coach Erik Spoelstra, whose team had not played in more than a week. “We’re not making any excuses for time off or anything else.”

To test a lazy analysis I’ll refer to as The Rust Theory, I looked at the average stats put up by LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh when they’ve had at least three days of rest and compare them with not only their Game 1 numbers, but their career stats and splits as well. How was the Big Three impacted by a few extra days off in a Game 1 against a battered and short-handed Bulls team that has had minimal rest between series.

LeBron James Min FG % 3 FG % Points Rebounds Assists FTA
Career Overall 39.7 49 33.7 27.6 7.3 6.9 8.6
Career 3+ 39.2 48.6 28.6 26.9 7.1 7.4 8.3
This Season 39.2 56.5 35 26.6 7.8 8.4 6.2
Game 1 43 47.1 33.3 24 8 7 9

Dwyane WadeThe problem with James is that he’s had one of the best single statistical regular seasons of all time, so any slight dip in that production is magnified. Against a strong Chicago defense, James only had a 24-8-7 line with numbers a shade worse than his overall career numbers and splits when he has three or more days of rest. On a night where the Heat shot under 40 percent from the field and under 30 percent from deep, it’s kind of hard to put the blame on James, even though that’s easy to do. James certainly wasn’t surprised by the loss.

“I’m not stunned,” James said. “This is what the playoffs is all about. We’re going against a really good team.”

It would have also helped if James got some support from some of his teammates. In addition to poor shooting games from Shane Battier, Ray Allen and Mike Miller, who combined to go 6-for-19 from the floor, Wade and Bosh didn’t help as much as they should have in order for Miami to beat a determined Chicago squad.

Dwyane Wade Min FG % 3 FG % Points Rebounds Assists FTA
Career Overall 36.9 48.9 28.9 24.7 5.1 6.1 8.6
Career 3+ 36.2 49.3 21.4 24.8 5.1 5.5 9.2
This Season 35.7 46.1 0 19.9 5.4 4.1 7.3
Game 1 33 43.8 0 14 2 4 0

Wade was severely limited on both side of the ball on Monday compared to his stats and splits across the board, including his numbers this season on long rest. Chicago is going to be in this series to win it if they out-rebound Miami by 14, as it did on Monday. Wade needs to contribute more in all facets, especially if and when the Bulls get Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich. Bosh is undoubtedly also to blame for the Game 1 defeat:

Chris Bosh Min FG % Points Rebounds Blocks FTA
Career Overall 36.4 49.6 19.5 8.9 1.1 6.7
Career 3+ 37.3 50.9 21.1 9.4 1.2 7.4
This Season 33.9 50.6 15 10.3 0.6 4.6
Game 1 28 30 9 6 2 2

Chris_Bosh_cropBosh is going to need to do a lot more inside against Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer. Down low is where Chicago’s only clear advantage lies in this series. If Bosh plays even with the Bulls’ bigs, Miami should have no trouble winning this series. Maybe Bosh was over-rested? More likely, he was just outmuscled by a team more determined to win. Jimmy Butler had 14 rebounds for Chicago on Monday. Joakim Noah had 11 rebounds, Carlos Boozer had seven and Marco Belinelli had seven. Bosh ended up with a sorry six, the sixth highest total among the 11 players who logged at least 25 minutes in Game One. Ray Allen and Mario Chalmers had more free throw attempts. If Bosh plays this way, Miami isn’t going to win. It’s as simple as that.

So to sum up the story pretty quickly, long rest isn’t to blame for the Heat’s loss. The team needs production out of its players not named LeBron James. Wade and Bosh can’t afford to coast against a confident team that has proven both physically and mentally tough. Bosh needs to limit Chicago on the glass, or Miami’s certain championship season will end in a shocking upset loss.

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

Abrams: Who Has What It Takes To Beat LeBron?

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If I had to rank the top four players in the NBA at the current moment, my system for ranking those players would look a little something like this:

1. LeBron James

2A. Kevin Durant

2B. Chris Paul

2C. Carmelo Anthony

If any other team than the Miami Heat or San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Finals at this point it will seem like a big surprise across the league. They are the two teams with the most experience not only in the playoffs, but winning championships and in the finals. The only other collective team to make the NBA Finals still in contention is the Oklahoma City Thunder and they are now attempting to do it without their 2nd and 3rd top scorers from last year in Russell Westbrook and James Harden.

The Bulls and Nets are brutally battling their way back and forth in their first-round series, and no matter who wins, they will be at a complete disadvantage against James and the Heat. If the Nets win, they would have had to come back from a 3-1 deficit and right after winning Game 7, would have to fly to Miami for a quick turnaround Game 1. If the Bulls win the series in 6 or 7 games, the pain would have already been assessed by not finishing off Brooklyn in five while Miami waited in South Beach.

Same goes for the other side of the bracket, the Spurs, who swept the Lakers, are sitting back awaiting the winner of the Nuggets and Warriors series. Right now the Warriors are leading the series 3-1 and are going back to Denver for a pivotal Game 5. The cases are very similar for Miami and San Antonio when it comes to their paths to the Finals. The Warriors and Nuggets are banged up teams who are missing key players and All-Stars and no matter who survives this series, the Spurs will be healthier and have a distinct advantage.

When it comes to the futures market and how some of the odds have changed since we did our first “Eight Pillars” piece on 2/28 and our second on 4/2, the Heat have lead the race the entire way and have now crossed over to the other side:

 


Miami Heat OKC Thunder SA Spurs NY Knicks LA Clippers
1.5/1 3.5/1 5.5/1 18/1 10/1
1.2/1 4.35/1 6.5/1 28/1 17.5/1
-195 8/1 5.90/1 17.5/1 23/1
MEM Grizzlies IND Pacers CHI Bulls GS Warriors
27/1 18/1 23/1 66/1
40/1 18/1 35/1 125/1
45/1 45/1 95/1 70/1
DEN Nuggets ATL Hawks BKN Nets BOS Celtics HOU Rockets
35/1 75/1 33/1 45/1 125/1
16/1 125/1 70/1 50/1 150/1
100/1 150/1 135/1 250/1 300/1

 

If you look strictly at the odds, the biggest threat to the Miami Heat is obviously the San Antonio Spurs when it comes to the NBA Finals (5.9/1) and it is the New York Knicks (17.5/1) when it comes to the Eastern Conference. If there was one key to playing the NBA futures market through the Regular Season and the Playoffs, it has to be timing. There are very few dominant teams like the Heat, whose odds may never go much higher based on losing a game or two in the playoffs.

Let’s take the Denver Nuggets as an example. A run and gun offensive team whose odds never exceeded 35/1 and basically decreased all the way up to the beginning of the playoffs is now down 3-1 and a 100/1 underdog to win the NBA Championship. Even when Denver was down 2-1, their odds to win the title virtually mirrored their futures ceiling for the entire season. Certain freak occurrences like trades and injuries can move odds on the futures market, some of the time on thin air, but a lot of the movement has to do with time elapsed in the full season of the sport. Depending on how you have decided to “attack” the futures market will depend on how you particularly see the odds. Every team who does not win the NBA Championship will at one point or another have better odds to win it all than they did earlier in the season (a large percentage that is).

When you begin to talk about attempting to beat the Heat four times in seven games you have to understand they have only lost back to back games 13 times in the past two full seasons. Since LeBron lost Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Celtics last year, the Heat are 76-17 (81.7%) overall and 38-3 since the first day of February, 2013. Miami’s only three losses in that span came against the Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks. When looking at the odds of potential NBA Finals matchups, eight of the top nine include either the Miami Heat or San Antonio Spurs, with the one exception being a Knicks/Thunder potential showdown at number five.

One of the glaring statistics when talking in favor of the San Antonio Spurs advancing deep into the playoffs has to do with pace. According to Team Pace (which is a statistic that uses field goal attempts among other statistics to create a pace for every NBA team), the Spurs have the 6th quickest pace in the league, which is 1.9 points above league average. Among the teams in the top 15 in Team Pace, only the Spurs and Thunder also have a Defensive Efficiency under 100, with the Spurs still .03 points better than the Thunder when they still had Russell Westbrook.

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