Fantasy Spin: September 10, 2012

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Welcome to the first full season of the Fantasy Spin. From now until the NBA tips off, we’ll help you prepare to draft. All year long, we’ll keep track of injuries, role changes, suspensions and more. Every morning, we’ll recap who’s hot, who’s not and who looks best on the waiver wire.  Follow us on Twitter @SheridanFantasy for updates.

Joining me on the beat are two terrific writers who excel at all fantasy sports, not just hoops. Over the years, we have been friendly rivals in some very tough leagues. Individually, we may disagree on a player’s value. Collectively, our goal is to help you win your league, or to make money in daily fantasy games.

Bruce Wrigley sees basketball like a point guard or coach, teaching me something new whenever we go to a game. His fantasy approach is also more analytical and statistical than my style. Jeff Nichols understands rules, loopholes and how to exploit them better than anyone. His strategy tips and roster-management advice will be useful whether you’re a novice or a veteran. In addition to their weekly columns, Jeff and Bruce will make guest appearances here in the Spin whenever I get a DNP-Old, like Tim Duncan. It’s great to be working with you, gentlemen.

Perspective

Always remember that fantasy is the “toy department” of Sheridan Hoops. We’re grown men who write about a game that’s based on a sport. Elsewhere on this site, you’ll find experienced journalists who know basketball — like our founder — and what they write about the real NBA is important background for those of us whose imaginary leagues matter just as much.

Let’s start with Sheridan’s September Power Rankings, which are reality-based. Some Raptors fans are incensed at “their” team being #29 on the list, but if you take an objective look at the other four teams in that division, Toronto will have a tough time escaping the basement.

Fantasy owners shouldn’t care. The important nugget of information is that Chris, who has been to Europe and seen Jonas Valanciunas play, believes the rookie will be plagued by foul trouble. That means quick hooks, fewer minutes and lower production. JV remains high on my list in keeper leagues because he’s a skilled 7-footer, but 2012-2013 may be frustrating at times for his owners. Landry Fields, who Sheridan calls the worst offseason signing in the NBA, may in fact be overpaid and even handcuff Toronto financially in its rebuilding efforts, but that’s irrelevant to fantasy GMs.

There’s more great background from the boss in his Offseason Report Cards, and Chris Bernucca has taken an in-depth look at each team’s roster moves during the summer. Again, the expert analysis is based on real teams, real budgets and real competition. It’s still important to anyone preparing for a fantasy draft, just subject to interpretation.

Preseason

It’s seven weeks, one day and a few hours until the Wizards visit Cleveland in the first game that counts.  Some fantasy leagues are drafting already. Unless those owners have a crystal ball, it must involve a lot of guesswork. Most leagues, including all but one of mine, draft much closer to the start of the season. That’s when we need to be fully prepared.

Until the exhibition games begin, our focus here will be primarily on player values, team rotations, position scarcity and other general topics. Then we’ll try not to overreact when an unheralded bench player has a big game, but we’ll be making adjustments to our cheat sheets. Especially with players returning from injury, it’s nice to see them in action before clicking Draft.

Sharing all these opinions with you doesn’t help in my own leagues. It’s like playing poker with my hole cards face up. Opponents will have a pretty good idea who my best sleepers are and where I’m likely to draft them. The temptation to pretend I don’t like Mirza Teletovic, in order to get him on my team, is overcome by annoying qualities like honesty and integrity.

In Depth

If you’re playing in a “default settings” league, that usually means 12-team leagues with 13-man rosters. A mere 156 players will be owned: roughly the starting five for all 30 teams, plus six other guys.

If you’re in a highly competitive 20-team league, or multiple leagues, with experienced owners who know each other well, so are we.  There are almost limitless types of leagues, given all the variables.  Rotisserie, Head-to-Head and Points are the three main branches of the fantasy tree. Number of teams, roster sizes and several other factors create a multitude of formats.

On Wednesday, we’ll publish version 1.0 of the 2012-2013 Depth Chart, listing 300 players. It’s our best guess, after internal debate, of who will start and back up at each position. 144 of those will be free agents in standard-sized leagues, and it’s that group we’ll be discussing quite a bit over the next few weeks.

Rankings and Context

It’s impossible to compile a one-size-fits-all list of “top 50 point guards” or “best rookies.” What any player is worth depends so much on your league settings, and the most important consideration is whether or not you have keepers.

Let’s consider the talented rookie Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, expected to start at SF for the Bobcats. It’s a bad team, he’ll have a steep learning curve and isn’t worth nearly as much as he will be next season, or the year after that. In a redraft league, feel free to let someone else “overpay” by taking MKG too soon. In a dynasty league, where he has a chance to be a strong contributor for the next decade, he looks like a top-five pick.

At the other end of the age spectrum, how about Steve Nash? For this year only, he is very draftable. Gunning for a championship, dishing to all those weapons, he should put up huge numbers one more time. Unfortunately, in one league I have to choose between Nash and Ty Lawson as my final keeper. It breaks my heart to throw a fellow Canadian geezer back into the FA pool, but considering Lawson’s total future value, it’s a no-brainer.

Don’t expect a list of players ranked 1-300. Those are available from many other sources. Instead, starting this Friday, I’ll post my Tiers for each position. Chris Paul is absolutely a Tier 1 PG, who deserves to be drafted early in any format. Lawson, running George Karl’s fast-paced attack, is a solid Tier 2. But where do we put Derrick Rose? I’m thinking Tier 3, but only in certain leagues.

Up Next

The Spin will be here by 9:00 a.m., every day from now through the regular season. Tomorrow, it’s New Names You Need To Know, including rookies you might remember from the NCAA, European imports and a few sleeper possibilities who didn’t play anywhere last year.  Anyone with zeroes across his stat line from last year is a potential bargain in the deepest leagues.

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SH Blog: Don Nelson to join Hall of Fame, wishes he could have coached Rubio and Love

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As we slowly prepare ourselves for an exciting upcoming season, it’s good to have an idea of who is still left on the market and what teams can go after them. Who still has enough cap room or trade exceptions to land a player of relevance? Moke Hamilton has all the details on the subject.

On to today’s news, soon-to-be Hall of Famer Don Nelson had plenty to say about a wide range of topics, including his former player Monta Ellis. You’ll also find out how the Knicks can open up their terrible offense this season, along with plenty of entertaining videos below (you may want to plug your ears when Charles Barkley tries to sing):

  • Don Nelson discussed his joy of joining the 2012 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame, among other things with Laurence Scott of Warriors TV in this video.
  • Nelson also spoke in detail about how Monta Ellis was not ready to handle the duties of a point guard when he was a younger player, from Matt Steinmetz of CSN Bay Area: “I really like what they’ve done. As much as I love Monta I thought he was – just because of his size and not his ability, a 6-3 two guard – it’s very hard to win with a small two guards in our league. When I first had him, I tried to get him to think more like a point guard – if he could ever be a point guard. “He did have the ability to pass. He does have that. He’s doing more of that now. But you know, a player has to be willing to see that and to do those things. His approach when he was younger was a like a lot of guys. He’s not ready to do that. So he was going to be what he was. But now he’s more of an all-around player than I’ve seen out of him. “He is passing more and seeing players. He’s a good teammate now. When he was young he was just … he thought he was so dominant that he could do all these things that we witnessed that he can do. He can get you 35 (points) in a game and that’s what he wanted to do. Now that he’s maturing, he’s a better basketball player.”
  • Don NelsonOne more thing of note about Nelson: he hates isolation plays and wishes he could have coached Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love, from Ailene Voisin of The Sacramento Bee: “He despises the isolation game he once so effectively exploited; considers the European system of cutting, movement and passing as more appealing that the modern NBA diet of dribble-heavy, one-on-one play; regards his close friend, Gregg Popovich, as the league’s premier coach; and admits that he desperately wanted the Minnesota Timberwolves job that went to Rick Adelman – “I would love to have coached Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love” – but insists his career victory total will stay at 1,335.”
  • Zach Lowe of SI (soon to be Grantland) explained how some newly acquired statistics on Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire could open up the Knicks’ offense. Here’s a bit of a scoop on Anthony: “Of all players who drove the ball at least 40 times in camera-recorded games last season, Anthony proved to be the most efficient of anyone in the league. The Knicks scored 1.66 points per possession on trips that included an Anthony drive (from 20 feet out to 10 feet in) at any point in the possession. Anthony shot the ball on 55 percent of those drives (53 total, in 17 recorded games), a pretty normal figure for a top player at any position. He drew fouls on 25 percent of his drives, one of the half-dozen highest numbers in the sample of 91 players that STATS sent along. (Among players who piled up more than a token number of drives, only James Harden drew fouls more often.) Anthony shot a hair better than 60 percent from the floor on driving attempts. But here’s the thing: Despite all those touches and more isolation plays than any player in the entire league (as a share of his total possessions, per Synergy Sports), Anthony only pulled off only 3.1 drives per game in the sample size. That mark was equivalent to the numbers for Chandler Parsons and Luol Deng, a bit below those for Kevin Durant (3.6) and Paul Pierce (3.7) and about half to one-third of the number that most point guards recorded.”
  • Gregg Popovich believes Kawhi Leonard is the future of the Spurs, from NBA.com: “GP: I think he’s going to be a star. And as time goes on, he’ll be the face of the Spurs I think. At both ends of the court, he is really a special player. And what makes me be so confident about him is that he wants it so badly. He wants to be a good player, I mean a great player. He comes early, he stays late, and he’s coachable, he’s just like a sponge. When you consider he’s only had one year of college and no training camp yet, you can see that he’s going to be something else.”
Free agent F Josh Howard, a Winston Salem native, has been working out with Charlotte this week, sources tell Y! CHI, NY amongst interested.
August 29, 2012 6:55 pm via TweetDeckReplyRetweetFavorite
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Marc J. Spears
Good Morning everyone. Just wanted to share some good news. I will be plays for Panathinaikos, a Great team in Greece!
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@H__Strong
Hilton Armstrong
  • Shaquille O’Neal wants to bring an NBA team to his hometown in Newark, New Jersey. Didn’t we just finish removing a team from there? Mike Vorkunov of The Star-Ledger has the story: “Shaquille O’Neal, never shy to re-brand himself in the moment, didn’t hesitate to think of a new nickname to dub himself if the former perennial NBA All-Star can accomplish the latest goal he has in mind. “The black Ray Chambers,” he said. Chambers, a billionaire philanthropist, co-owner of the Devils and a former Nets owner, helped move the Devils to Newark. O’Neal, a native of the city, wants to deliver a professional team as well. “Yes, still working on it, still having conversations and still doing certain things to help beautify this city,” O’Neal said. “When the time is right, we’ll have a party. I don’t want to say things that are out of pretext or context. There’s things going on, we’re working on it, trust me. We’re working on it every day.”
  • Charles Barkley’s ability to sing rivals his ability to swing a golf club, as you will see in this video. Lucky for him, Boyz II Men come to the rescue.
  • Stephon Marbury has been sued in Richmond (via Slam), according to Aaron Kremer of Richmond BizSense: “A former star Georgia Tech point guard and NBA All-Star was sued in Richmond Circuit Court last week for defaulting on a loan on investment properties that included a commercial building in Petersburg. U.S. Bank, which is servicing a bundle of loans originally owned by Wachovia, sued Stephon Marbury and several of his investment entities — one of which is called Starbury GSA — for $3 million. Marbury’s nickname as a high school phenomenon was “Starbury.” The suit contends that, through the entities, Marbury bought industrial and office properties across the county, including one on Poplar Drive in Petersburg that was leased to the US.”
  • If you’d like the breakdown of a short list of noteworthy free agents for 2013, Kurt Helin of NBC Sports has it. Here is what he said about Chris Paul and Dwight Howard: “Chris Paul: The Clippers are doing everything in their power to keep him, to the point that CAA seems to run this team at points. They brought back Chauncey Billups for him, they have taken the young core and turned it into Blake Griffin and Eric Bledsoe with veterans like Jamal Crawford and Grant Hill. The “grow with the youth” plan is out. The smart money is that Paul re-signs with the Clippers. But he could look around the West, see the Lakers and Thunder, and decide the Clippers are not where he can win. And remember, Donald Sterling still owns his team so the potential for him to screw it up exists. Dwight Howard: He has to be on the list as an unrestricted FA, but there is little or no chance the Lakers do not re-sign him. He will want that. After his public relations disaster the past year, he doesn’t want to start the free agency public process up again.”
  • Kelly Dwyer of Ball Don’t Lie believes Mike Miller still has a trick up his sleeve, and it has nothing to do with his stroke: “Forget the idea of Mike Miller, designated shooter. The guy can still stroke, but on a team that just added Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, that sort of spacing isn’t as paramount any more. Nah, forget the bombs. Please welcome, if his body is up to it, the idea of Mike Miller the point forward. The designated passer. The skip guy. The extra dish after that up fake and drive that drove us so batty when Mike was passing up good looks from long range in Minnesota. The things that Allen and Lewis can’t do. Returning from debilitating injuries to try and line up at pressurized 25-footer after sitting on the bench stiffening up for 30 minutes of real time is a tough gig for one of the greats — and Miller, that 40 percent career shooter from long range, is one of the greats. Doesn’t matter. The new guys have one trick, you have two. Use the second trick to set up the other guy’s one trick.”

Blake Griffin’s knee ready for action

Rajon Rondo wants to be the best Celtics PG of all time 


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SH Blog: Serge Ibaka’s contract could be worth over $51 million, Stephen Curry thinks Warriors should sign him now

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The Oklahoma City Thunder recently locked Serge Ibaka into a lucrative long-term contract and may or may not look to do the same with James Harden in the near future. Also, Stephen Curry believes the smart thing for the Warriors to do is to lock him up for a “reasonable amount” while they still can. See how the contract situations are playing out for some of the remaining key players that still have yet to sign a new deal, along with Wednesday’s updated news below:

  • Serge Ibaka’s new contract could be worth over $51 million, according to John Rohde of The Oklahoman: “Multiple sources have confirmed Serge Ibaka’s four-year extension with the Thunder could total $51.5 million with incentives. Ibaka’s base salary is $49 million for the deal that begins in the 2013-14 season, with an additional $2.5 million in potential bonuses for achievements believed to include NBA Defensive Player of the Year and remaining a member of the league’s All-Defensive first team.”
  • Zach Lowe of Sports Illustrated looked at a bunch of different scenarios for a possible James Harden trade: “As for Harden, Houston could get far enough under the cap to offer several types of packages — one built around Kevin Martin’s expiring deal and a couple of picks, including Toronto’s likely lottery pick; or another built around those same picks, plus some combination of young wing players (Jeremy Lamb, Chandler Parsons, etc). (Note: Any deal involving Martin would require the Thunder to send out about $2.5 million in salary on top of Harden). Milwaukee could offer picks, Mike Dunleavy Jr. and an intriguing young player like Tobias Harris or Doron Lamb. The Cavs, also set to be pretty far under the cap, could come in with offers centering around picks and either Tristan Thompson, Dion Waiters or Anderson Varejao. The Hawks could offer Lou Williams, on an affordable three-year deal, plus multiple first-round picks. The Bobcats and Wizards could build offers around future picks and recent lottery selections; Charlotte has one net extra first-rounder thanks to deals with Portland (Gerald Wallace) and Detroit (Corey Maggette/Ben Gordon).”
  • Kevin Durant discussed the situations of Serge Ibaka and James Harden, from Marc Stein of ESPN: “ Q: To know that Serge [Ibaka] just re-signed, how reassuring is that? A: It’s a really big deal. I’m happy for him, first of all, him and his family. He worked so hard to get that [extension] and I’m just excited that he’s signed on for four more years and really believes in us. He easily could have said no, waited for next summer, played well this year and got more [money]. But he sacrificed for us and we appreciate him for that. He’s the ultimate team player. Q: But you know us in the media. We’re always going to talk about what happens next and that means James Harden’s deal. How involved will you get in trying to make sure that James stays? A: I want James to be here with us, of course. He’s one of my closest friends. Hopefully it works out, that’s all I can say. I haven’t asked [Thunder GM] Sam [Presti] about anything and I haven’t asked James about anything. I’m just going to let that take care of itself, be the best teammate I can be and hopefully by the time camp starts we have him locked up.”
  • Stephen Curry thinks it would be in the Warriors best interest to lock him up now, from Scott Howard Cooper of NBA.com: “It’s a crossroads for the player as well. If Curry considers the October offer too low and has another problematic season, the money will shrink. If he takes the security and the deal by Halloween and then flourishes in an offense loaded with scorers capable of putting defenses in scramble mode, he will have sold himself short. ”You’re playing chess with it,” Curry said. “If they were to take that approach to wait and I’ve had a great season, hopefully it would spark some interest across the league for the future and the price would drive up. If I were the Warriors, I’d offer a reasonable amount and sign me up now.”
  • Matt Steinmetz of CSN Bay Area openly wondered what is a “reasonable amount” to keep Curry long term: “The reality is, as much as an extension for Curry doesn’t make sense … it does make sense in some ways, if you follow. Curry could ensure himself some financial stability and protection by taking a sure thing right now. And the Warriors could get Curry for much cheaper now than they could at the end of a healthy 2012-13. Question is: What is a “reasonable” amount For Curry? That’s the most important question. Assuming you’re looking at a four-year deal, what do you offer him? Is four years, $32 million a reasonable offer for Curry under the circumstances? How about four years, $28 million? Too low, you say … how about four years in the $36 million to $40 million range?”
  • Mike Brown discussed the possibility of incorporating the Princeton offense for the Lakers now that Eddie Jordan is on board, from Brian Kamenetzky of ESPN LA: “So if you take away the individual players and their strengths and all that and just look at the purity of different offenses and how to defend them on a night in, night out basis, I always felt that the stuff [Jordan] did in Washington was difficult to defend. It was difficult to come up with a game plan because of the spacing and ball movement and stuff like that. It’s a stress-free offense because of the counters that are built in and so on and so forth. So I started looking into that at the beginning of the summer a little bit and talked with a couple of guys that have done it on the collegiate level and on the professional level, and then I brought Eddie in for a while. “I spent about a week or so with him, talking about it. So there’s a good chance we’re going to go down that road to incorporate some of that, or a lot of that, into what we did last year.”
  • Chauncey Billups explained how he is not afraid of any team and that he aims to be ready for the regular season, from Vince Ellis of Detroit Free Press: “They are trying to stack the deck over there, but I tell you what – I’m very pleased with my team and what we’ve been able to do and I will just say this – don’t nobody scare me, man,” said the former Piston with a chuckle. Billups, who was Finals MVP when leading the Pistons to the 2004 NBA title, spoke briefly with the Free Press over the phone Saturday afternoon and said his rehab is “going well.”… “I think it’s going to be close, but I’m shooting to be ready for the regular season, to be honest with you,” Billups said. “But obviously you don’t just jump out there in the regular season with no practices, I would never do that. “But honestly, I’m not in a rush at all. If I’m ready, I’m ready, but I’m just grinding and whenever my body tells me it’s time to get back out there, that’s when you will see me.”
  • Vinny Del Negro believes Chris Paul will return from thumb surgery sometime during training camp, according to Broderick Turner of Los Angeles Times: “Any fears Clippers fans might have about All-Star point guard Chris Paul having surgery Tuesday to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb should be put to rest, according to Coach Vinny Del Negro. He wanted to reassure fans that Paul “will be all right” and will “resume all basketball activities” after being sidelined for about eight weeks. It’s possible that Paul could be back sometime during training camp, which starts Oct. 1. ”I don’t want to put an exact date on it,” Del Negro said. “When he’s ready to play, he’ll play. But I expect him back sometime during training camp. I don’t know when, but the most important thing is to get ready for the start of the season.”
  • Louis Williams talked about his preference on offense and how he learned things from Allen Iverson and Andre Miller, from Michael Cunningham of Atlanta Journal Constitution: “I was off the ball [in Philadelphia], I would prefer to be off the ball, and I think both of those guys [Teague and Harris] are on the ball,” Williams said. “So I don’t think it will be an issue as much as people think it is. Once we open up camp I’m sure Coach [Larry] Drew will do a good job in figuring out where everyone is going to go.”… “More attacking than catch-and-shoot,” Williams said. “Actually catch-and-shoot is one of the things I’ve been able to work on this whole summer. Coming down in transition and catching the ball and shooting, instead of catching and trying to create so much off the dribble.”… Williams said he patterned his game after former Sixers teammate Allen Iverson. “The whole time you are in the game be aggressive and don’t take plays off,” Williams said. “I think that’s one of the things I learned from A.I. Watching him, he didn’t take plays off. He always took contact, initiated it and he didn’t shy away from it being a small guard.” Williams also attributes his foul magnetism to a nifty ball fake: “I got that from Andre Miller. He’s got one of the best pump fakes in the world.”
One thing mentioned in Cavs notes: Watch out for Kelenna Azubuike. Chris Grant says he's moving well, knee improving. Could be contributor.
August 21, 2012 10:08 pm via Twitter for iPhoneReplyRetweetFavorite
@SamAmicoFSO
Sam Amico
  • Mark Cuban has been on fire with the media over the last couple of days. Today, we have the explanation on why his biggest regret is letting go of a psych doctor named Don Kalkstein, from Jeff Caplan of ESPN Dallas: ”Letting Don Kalkstein, our psych doctor go,” Cuban said Tuesday during an appearance on ESPN Dallas 103.3 FM’s Ben & Skin Show. Co-host Jeff “Skin” Wade, an admitted unabashed Mavs fan, instantly responded by saying, “C’mon, really?” ”Seriously,” Cuban said. “I think if I hadn’t done that we win a championship with Avery (Johnson).” It was Johnson, who holds a psychology degree from Southern University, who no longer wanted Kalkstein around. Cuban listened to the young head coach he promoted in 2005 and made it so. Kalkstein then joined the Boston Red Sox and wears a 2007 World Series ring. He rejoined the Mavs as director of sport psychology after Johnson was fired in 2008 and Rick Carlisle was hired.”


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Chris Paul undergoes thumb surgery, out 8 weeks

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Chris Paul underwent surgery this morning to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb, the Los Angeles Clippers announced today, saying the injury occurred last month during Team USA training camp in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The surgery was performed by Dr. Steven Shin, a hand specialist at the Kerlan-Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic in Los Angeles.

Paul is expected to be sidelined for approximately eight weeks, at which time he is projected to resume all basketball activities including full contact.

Paul helped lead Team USA to the gold medal in the 2012 Olympics. He started all eight games, averaging 8.3 points, 5.1 assists, an Olympic tournament-high 2.5 steals and 25.8 minutes per game.

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Heisler: L.A. Story: Meet the new boss, same as the old boss

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Having trumped up, er, written more intracity rivalry stories than I care to remember, there are three things I know.

1. They’re really no big deal.

So what if the Clippers don’t like the Lakers, who don’t deign to notice the Clippers? The Clips don’t dislike the Lakes any more than the Suns or Warriors do, to say nothing of the Celtics.

This isn’t high school. It’s not even USC-UCLA. This is the NBA, where only the Clips would remember if they swept the Lakers, who then went on to win the title. The same thing holds true for the Knicks and Nets.

2. If something was really riding on the “city series,” it was settled long ago.

With their majestic-if-often-madcap tradition, the Lakers own Southern California. If they played at the Coliseum with its 90,000 seats, there might be entire seasons where no one attended a Clippers game.

The Knicks own New York, even if their tradition is more Clippers than Lakers. Not only are the Knicks at Madison Square Garden, the nexus of the metropolitan area, there hasn’t even been a second team in town. (And no, Piscataway, East Rutherford, Newark and Uniondale didn’t count as “New York.”)

Whether Brooklyn, which is one of the five boroughs but still isn’t Manhattan, counts or not remains to be seen. But the chances didn’t improve when the Nets ran out of the money in the Dwight Howard Derby.

3. As to points Nos. 1-2, so what? With two teams and one fan base, these things are still a lot of fun.

Lakers fans see the Heat, Celtics, Spurs and Thunder six times in six months, so thank heaven for the Clippers.

Of course, the Lakers have dominated the rivalry, although there have been brief but interesting reversals - like this summer, when the Clippers acquired Lamar Odom, Jamal Crawford and Grant Hill and re-signed Blake Griffin.

Meanwhile, the Lakers, who finished one (1) game ahead of them in the Pacific Division, looked like a beached whale.

Owner Jim Buss said they were making plans to go with what they had – an even older, slower, and ever-clumsier-looking team. Ramon Sessions arrived at mid-season and played well until the playoffs, when coach Mike Brown turned to Steve Blake, his non-playmaking point guard – which was why they couldn’t run plays in crunch time and just handed Kobe Bryant the rock.

If the Clippers were approaching an inflection point this summer with Chris Paul about to start his contract season, the Lakers’ future seemed more predictable. They were on their way out.

Then, in a surprise to the Lakers, as well as everyone else, Steve Nash, ticketed for New York, wound up in LA.

In a bigger surprise, so did Howard, who didn’t deny reports that he had crossed the Lakers off his list last season after a telephone conversation with Bryant, which Dwight reportedly took as an invitation to get the ball off the boards if he wanted to touch it.

Howard joined the lineage of star centers from Wilt Chamberlain to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to Shaquille O’Neal. They made the Lakers the NBA’s destination of choice, changing the team’s destiny from Celtics patsies to a dynasty in their own right.

Surprising as the arrival of Nash and Howard were, the Lakers planned it all along, kind of.

With two 7-footers, one an All-Star and the other about to become one, the Lakers thought they could make a play for both Howard and Paul, then in contract seasons in Orlando and New Orleans last offseason.

Sure enough, the Lakers pulled off a deal for Paul, which Hornets GM Dell Demps accepted and the media reported. Unfortunately for the Lakers, the league owned and ran the Hornets. So it wasn’t Demps’ call but Commissioner David Stern’s, who famously said no.

Even more unfortunately for the Lakers, Stern found himself being barbecued over a roaring fire. Instead of holding onto Paul until the franchise was sold – as he had planned – Stern felt obliged to move him if a better offer came in.

Most unfortunately for the Lakers, one did, from the Clippers.

The outward-bound Gasol returned to the Lakes. The outward-bound Lamar Odom was in such a funk, they dealt him to Dallas for a trade exception, which they planned to offer New Orleans in a new bid for Paul, who was already headed to LA – just to the other dressing room.

As far as pursuing Howard, the Magic shopped him only briefly, preferring to try to win him back with a good season and an All-Star pageant around him in their new arena. Well, you can’t blame them for trying.

At that point, Andrew Bynum, who had yet to play a full season as a starter, barely figured into the equation. The Magic said they would take Bynum for Howard – along with Gasol – if the Lakers would also swallow Hedo Turkoglu’s contract.

So much for the Lakers’ best-laid plans last summer.

They barely maintained the local status quo last season, beating the Clippers by one game in the standings and lasting longer by one day in the playoffs.

Worse for the Lakers, they didn’t seem to have many moves available this summer.

They liked the idea of signing Nash. But the Suns star, a long-time rival, had places he preferred, like New York. Howard again had set his heart set on New Jersey – as he had before messing up his chance to sign as a free agent, opting in with the Magic to get everyone off his butt.

With the Knicks sure they had Nash, he changed his mind and became a Laker, changing everything

By then, the Magic and Howard were past Plans A, B and C, ready to do anything to get away from each other. In Dwight’s case, that meant becoming second fiddle (ugh) with the Lakers and following in Shaq’s footsteps (double ugh.)

With new CBA rules that allowed teams to offer 20 percent more to their own free agents, the Lakers took Howard with no assurance he would re-sign in the four-team trade with the Nuggets, Magic and 76ers, who took Bynum on the same basis.

Meet the new boss in L.A., same as the old boss, on paper.

The Lakers should be great, if not 70-win great. Having heard that before, like annually, I’ll believe it when I see it.

The Clippers could be great if they mesh.

If the Knicks and Nets will be more interesting – assuming either is any good – whatever the Lakes and Clips have going is heating up.

Mark Heisler is a regular contributor to SheridanHoops, LakersNation and the Old Gray Lady. His power rankings appear every Wednesday during the regular season, and his columns and video reports appear regularly here. Follow him on Twitter.

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