Abrams: Who Has What It Takes To Beat LeBron?

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If I had to rank the top four players in the NBA at the current moment, my system for ranking those players would look a little something like this:

1. LeBron James

2A. Kevin Durant

2B. Chris Paul

2C. Carmelo Anthony

If any other team than the Miami Heat or San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Finals at this point it will seem like a big surprise across the league. They are the two teams with the most experience not only in the playoffs, but winning championships and in the finals. The only other collective team to make the NBA Finals still in contention is the Oklahoma City Thunder and they are now attempting to do it without their 2nd and 3rd top scorers from last year in Russell Westbrook and James Harden.

The Bulls and Nets are brutally battling their way back and forth in their first-round series, and no matter who wins, they will be at a complete disadvantage against James and the Heat. If the Nets win, they would have had to come back from a 3-1 deficit and right after winning Game 7, would have to fly to Miami for a quick turnaround Game 1. If the Bulls win the series in 6 or 7 games, the pain would have already been assessed by not finishing off Brooklyn in five while Miami waited in South Beach.

Same goes for the other side of the bracket, the Spurs, who swept the Lakers, are sitting back awaiting the winner of the Nuggets and Warriors series. Right now the Warriors are leading the series 3-1 and are going back to Denver for a pivotal Game 5. The cases are very similar for Miami and San Antonio when it comes to their paths to the Finals. The Warriors and Nuggets are banged up teams who are missing key players and All-Stars and no matter who survives this series, the Spurs will be healthier and have a distinct advantage.

When it comes to the futures market and how some of the odds have changed since we did our first “Eight Pillars” piece on 2/28 and our second on 4/2, the Heat have lead the race the entire way and have now crossed over to the other side:

 


Miami Heat OKC Thunder SA Spurs NY Knicks LA Clippers
1.5/1 3.5/1 5.5/1 18/1 10/1
1.2/1 4.35/1 6.5/1 28/1 17.5/1
-195 8/1 5.90/1 17.5/1 23/1
MEM Grizzlies IND Pacers CHI Bulls GS Warriors
27/1 18/1 23/1 66/1
40/1 18/1 35/1 125/1
45/1 45/1 95/1 70/1
DEN Nuggets ATL Hawks BKN Nets BOS Celtics HOU Rockets
35/1 75/1 33/1 45/1 125/1
16/1 125/1 70/1 50/1 150/1
100/1 150/1 135/1 250/1 300/1

 

If you look strictly at the odds, the biggest threat to the Miami Heat is obviously the San Antonio Spurs when it comes to the NBA Finals (5.9/1) and it is the New York Knicks (17.5/1) when it comes to the Eastern Conference. If there was one key to playing the NBA futures market through the Regular Season and the Playoffs, it has to be timing. There are very few dominant teams like the Heat, whose odds may never go much higher based on losing a game or two in the playoffs.

Let’s take the Denver Nuggets as an example. A run and gun offensive team whose odds never exceeded 35/1 and basically decreased all the way up to the beginning of the playoffs is now down 3-1 and a 100/1 underdog to win the NBA Championship. Even when Denver was down 2-1, their odds to win the title virtually mirrored their futures ceiling for the entire season. Certain freak occurrences like trades and injuries can move odds on the futures market, some of the time on thin air, but a lot of the movement has to do with time elapsed in the full season of the sport. Depending on how you have decided to “attack” the futures market will depend on how you particularly see the odds. Every team who does not win the NBA Championship will at one point or another have better odds to win it all than they did earlier in the season (a large percentage that is).

When you begin to talk about attempting to beat the Heat four times in seven games you have to understand they have only lost back to back games 13 times in the past two full seasons. Since LeBron lost Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Celtics last year, the Heat are 76-17 (81.7%) overall and 38-3 since the first day of February, 2013. Miami’s only three losses in that span came against the Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks. When looking at the odds of potential NBA Finals matchups, eight of the top nine include either the Miami Heat or San Antonio Spurs, with the one exception being a Knicks/Thunder potential showdown at number five.

One of the glaring statistics when talking in favor of the San Antonio Spurs advancing deep into the playoffs has to do with pace. According to Team Pace (which is a statistic that uses field goal attempts among other statistics to create a pace for every NBA team), the Spurs have the 6th quickest pace in the league, which is 1.9 points above league average. Among the teams in the top 15 in Team Pace, only the Spurs and Thunder also have a Defensive Efficiency under 100, with the Spurs still .03 points better than the Thunder when they still had Russell Westbrook.

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The 6 O’Clock News: Clippers reportedly interested in Van Gundy; Lin cites race as former barrier; Bernard King will join Hall of Fame.

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Good evening and welcome to the 6 O’Clock News …

This is a new daily feature on SheridanHoops.com, and if you want it in your inbox every evening (or afternoon, if you are on MDT or PDT) you can click here to sign up for our RSS feed.

Lets get right to it:

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Abrams: NBA Futures Market Transitions Into April

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With March Madness officially behind us and a little over two weeks left in the NBA regular season, the majority of sports gamblers turn their focus back to the NBA.

Attacking the NBA futures market and NBA playoff odds before the regular season ends can be a very profitable way to walk into the playoffs. In this column, we are going to analyze some of the differences between what the futures market looked like a little over a month ago and what the odds are as of April 1st.

Some of the biggest differences you will see in the futures are fewer teams listed and a more balanced gap between the teams and odds across the board. The previous “Eight Pillars Of NBA” piece listed futures on 30 different teams, while the futures market now currently only lists odds for 18 teams. Out of the 18 teams that are currently listed in the chart below, 14 of them had their odds go up since February 28th. Three teams had their odds go down: Miami Heat, Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets; the Indiana Pacers have the exact same odds today as they did a month ago.

The dollar amounts I have listed on the chart give you an idea of how much money you would have lost or gained if you placed a $100 wager on that teams future now versus my last column a little over a month ago:

 


Pillar 1 Heat 1st Odds are NEWEST
1/1.2 & 1.5/1
($67)
Pillar 2 Thunder    Spurs
4.35/1 & 3.5/1   6.5/1 & 5.5/1
$85 $10
Pillar 3 Nuggets    Clippers   Pacers
16/1 & 35/1   17.5/1 & 10/1   18/1 & 18/1
($190) $75 $0
Pillar 4 Lakers    Knicks   Bulls   Grizzlies
23/1 & 25/1   28/1 & 18/1   35/1 & 23/1   40/1 & 27/1
($20) $100 $120 $130
Pillar 5 Celtics    Nets
50/1 & 45/1   70/1 & 33/1
$50 $370
Pillar 6 Hawks    Warriors   Rockets
125/1 & 75/1   125/1 & 66/1   150/1 & 125/1
$500 $590 $250
Pillar 7 Bucks    Mavericks   Jazz
300/1 & 275/1   400/1 & 300/1  450/1 & 150/1
$250 $1,000 $3,000

 

If you simply take a look at the line changes and compare them to playoff position, you can see the “best bets” at the current moment.

When it comes to ensuring a profit in futures NBA bets, matchups become the biggest aspect during the playoffs. If you can avoid playing teams like the Miami Heat for just one extra round, it can mean one more round of lighter odds and possibly an easier opponent in route to the Finals.

The NBA regular season ends on April 17th, so at the current moment matchups are near impossible to guarantee for the road to the Finals. The two and three seeds in the Eastern Conference are tied, while the 4, 5 and  6 seeds are separated by a game and a half.  The most likely matchup at the moment is the Miami Heat against the Milwaukee Bucks as the one versus eight seeds in the first round, that is certainly not a sure thing.

With 2, 3 , 6 and 7 avoiding Miami until the conference finals, it was very difficult for me to leave the Brooklyn Nets off my team of recommended wagers at this price. Originally at 33/1 a month ago and now at 70/1, Brooklyn is currently the number four seed in the east and lined up to play Chicago or Atlanta in the first round of the playoffs. The Nets are just 3-4 straight up and 2-5 against the spread versus the Hawks and Bulls this season.

If Brooklyn can get Joe Johnson healthy over the next two weeks I feel the 70/1 future could definitely be an investment come hopefully the second round of the playoffs against Miami.

When looking at the 8th playoff spot in the Western Conference here is a breakdown of the Utah Jazz, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers:


Odds Home/Road Left Playoff Teams Remaining Proj. Final Team Rankings Playoff %
Utah Jazz 450/1   4/3 DEN, @GDST, OKC, @MEM 39-36/4-3 50.90%
Los Angeles Lakers 23/1   6/2 DAL, MEM, @LAC, GDST, SA, HOU 38-36/5-3 43.50%
Dallas Mavericks 400/1   4/5  @LAK, @DEN, DEN, MEM 36-37/5-4 7.10%

The issue with finding value in any of these three teams fighting for the eight seed is the fact they are 38-81 (.319) against teams .500 and better this season. In my honest opinion, I think the Spurs can be beat. A recent injury to Manu Ginobili, who is out the remainder of the regular season, has put San Antonio in a position where they are only one game up on Oklahoma City for the number one seed in the west.

As much as I want to recommend a small wager on the Mavericks at 400/1 to put a large scare in the Spurs, I am not sure Dallas will be that last team in the playoffs this year. The Jazz are 3 games ahead of the Mavericks in the win column right now with only around eight games left for each team. At 450/1, the Utah Jazz simply represents more value at the current moment than the Lakers and Mavericks. Are the Lakers better equipped to win four games in around a week against the Thunder or Spurs…possibly; but at 23/1 and an upward battle from the ninth spot in the west, it might not be worth the “gamble.”

In the Lakers eight games remaining on their schedule they face six “playoff” teams, with five of them being at the Staples Center.

This may be a good thing for Los Angeles, as they are 5-1 in their last six home games versus “playoff” teams coming in.

 

 

 

 

 

Here are a few influential statistics that I believe will come into play come playoff time:

1. Who are the top 6 teams in the NBA (winning percentage) in close-margined road games this season?


Nets .778
Warriors .700
Heat .636
Spurs .636
Bucks .636
Knicks .636

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2. These 5 teams are the best at defending the “runway” (the rim to 9 feet away from the basket; opponent field goal percentage) in the NBA.


Pacers 51.20%
Thunder 54.70%
Spurs 54.80%
Nuggets 54.90%
Bucks 55.20%

———————————-

3. Which “playoff” teams are the worst against the spread across the NBA?


Lakers 30-43-1
Bucks 33-40
Bulls 33-39
Celtics 33-38-3
Hawks 35-38-2
Nets 35-36-3

———————————-

4. An NBA efficiency formula I put together, which calculates defensive statistics and simple offensive efficiency (((Assists Per Game) – (Turnovers Per Game)) + DEF (Steals, Blocks & Charges Drawn)).


Bucks 25.9
Nuggets 25.8
Spurs 25.6
Clippers 25.3
Heat 24.3
Hawks 23.6
Jazz 23.6

———————————-

Evan Abrams contributes gambling-related articles to SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter, where he goes by @Betropolitan.

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Nuggets Give Clippers Last Minute Noogie To Stun Vegas Viewers

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On a warm evening, shown on my calendar to be October 6th, I welcomed live basketball back to my life. The venue was Mandalay Bay (Vegas, Baby, Vegas) and the opponents were the Los Angeles Clippers & the Denver Nuggets. There were the old heads that I’ve come to get to know and there were a few new faces for both squads. Some of them may or may not be there in a few weeks at the opener but they certainly did put on a show.

The first play to kick things off was a slam dunk by DeAndre Jordan. He went on to have another slam dunk THAT quarter and one more for good luck in the 3rd along with 3 blocks that quarter. Often they switched out him and Blake-A-Saurus Griffin, which I thought wasn’t such a hot idea considering their ability to terrify the competition when they are both on the court together….but then again, this is only pre-season. I consider it to be a glorified version of summer league, where they test out new plays, new players, new rotations and new rotator cuffs after injuries have taken the summer to heal.

Some injured have not yet danced their way onto the floor though. Chauncey Billups is still riding the bench along with Trey Thompkins who, after a seemingly MINOR incident that occurred during Vegas league last September, is still on the injured reserves. Although Chauncey and his pal Chris Paul have been cleared to practice, they didn’t participate in the game. The higher ups have declared them “ready for the opener” but we will soon see if that is true or not.

The first quarter saw some action from Blake Griffin and his fabulous alley-oops that we’ve grown to love. Unfortunately, they also came with side order of 2 turnovers, and I don‘t mean the pastry kind. He redeemed himself with a monster block but was fairly quietly the rest of the game doing his usual routine of “rebound, pass, rebound, get fouled, miss a free throw, make a free throw” until the 3rd quarter where he had a monster dunk showcased in pictures below. He ended the night with 40% FG shooting & 2-6 on FT’s. Nothing to write home about considering past performances.


 

For the Clippers, the night seemed to belong to Matt Barnes & Eric Bledsoe, but for different reasons. In the 2nd quarter, Barnes had FOUR TURNOVERS (and a steal, so there was so SOME redemption). However, looking at his box score for the night, he landed the 3rd highest in pts with 15, but FIVE turnovers total; the highest of anyone on the team. He was 4-9 with FG’s, shot 50% in 3 point land, made 100% of his FT’s, and had 7 rebounds and 4 steals. All is not lost, I suppose.

Little Eric Bledsoe on the other hand, just silently tore it up. I didn’t really realize how much damage he was doing until the 4th quarter when I started reading the play-by-plays that were being handed out. In the 1st quarter he had 2 steals (but 2 turnovers). In the 2nd he had 3 steals, 1 turnover and a slam dunk. In the 3rd he went 10-14 in FG’s w/21 pts, got 100% on his FT’s, polished off 7 rebounds and had 5 assists and 5 steals. In the 4th he went COMPLETELY COLD and I believe that was one of the main reasons for their loss. He is only in his 3rd year in the league and although he has been a gem for the red, white and blue Clippers, he can sometimes be inconsistent. I’m anxious to see how he develops this season with a few more seasoned veterans around to possibly bring him along a little more.

The game was mostly neck and neck the whole way. The 1st quarter, everyone got their sea legs, as usual. The 2nd quarter saw a push from the Nuggets as they pulled away in FG % and 3 pointers yet nobody on the Denver squad did anything that lit the place on fire. Kenneth Faried, who is usually a stand-out, was relatively mute other than a fantastic assist he gave JaVale McGee for a slam dunk in the 1st and then later one of his own. At halftime, I was crying “WTF” at the Clippers dismal 14.3% (to DEN’s 45.5%) in the 3 point shoot-out but we all know that was never their strong suit so I wasn’t TERRIBLY surprised once I got some perspective.

Free throws sucked in both directions, as the game ended with 70% being made on the LAC side and 61.5% on the DEN side yet Denver managed to pull out the win.

The win, however, is still a mystery to many. Even being there front and center, many of us media folks looked at each other with a “Did that just happen? Seriously? Why did they just let him run thru the lane like that unopposed?” look on our faces. No words needed to be spoken because we all knew the answer but I raced home to see the replay.

As you will see below, with the clock at 1.9 after a time out to advance the ball, the Nuggets land the rock into the hands of Ty Lawson, the tiny tot little 5’11 Speedy Gonzales guard from University of North Carolina. He cuts into the lane at about the free throw line and goes full strength thru the lane with almost no opposition. One person sorta goes “Boo” but still lets him go through. I don’t know if they thought time was going to run out or if they didn’t have any faith that he would/could make it. Possibly a combination of both! As my fiance said on replay, “They left the door wide open and nobody was home so Denver just STOLE THEIR PORRIDGE!“. Yeah, that about covers it.

Whatever the case, the ball left his hands ON TIME. Swish went the net, “EHHHH” went the buzzer and there went the game (for the Clippers). Game. Blouses. Final Score: 106-104. Final look on everyone’s face?

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Fantasy Spin: September 26, 2012 – Part I

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Pacific Division Fantasy Preview (Part I)

So far this week we’ve brought you Jeff’s view on the Northwest (which I think is the division to own players in this season) and Kent’s take on the Atlantic.

Today it’s the Pacific Division. This is a pretty good division fantasy-wise: there are three teams that play at a pretty good pace–Sacramento especially, who led the NBA in field goal attempts last season–plus the two Los Angeles teams who are very interesting in fantasy terms with some high quality players and some high quality play to boot. The Pacific teams shoot and make threes, and there are plenty of steals and blocks here. It’s also my preferred division to watch; I’m a night owl and last season found myself watching a lot of West Coast games despite being in the Eastern time zone (it’s after the kids are in bed, after all).

Obviously the Lakers are the class of the division in on-court terms, although there isn’t a Laker who doesn’t have some significant risk in view of his likely draft position. The Clippers were close to the Lakers last year (and probably a better team all said) but I don’t think they have done enough to stay close to them, and I don’t think they have a team that will jell together, either in fantasy terms or in the win column. They remain a lock to be a top-4 team in the West though.

The Warriors will be much improved, though not enough to be a playoff team. I probably think this because as a huge booster of Stephen Curry, I live more in hope than in reality. The Suns will be worse, not only for losing Steve Nash but also because I don’t like how their parts fit together. The Kings? Well, if you’re streaming, pick up guys facing the Kings.

Like Jeff with the Northwest, I am making “sleeper” picks of guys who look a good bet to outperform their average draft positions at Yahoo! and where I think a player is a particular must-draft I will identify him as such. Position eligibility is the Yahoo! default as well. This Part I of the preview looks at the Lakers and Clippers. For my thoughts on the Warriors, Suns and Kings, see Part II.

Los Angeles Lakers

It is a bizarre result of their offseason that the Lakers have made themselves a better team while arguably making every single one of their players a worse fantasy option than they were last season. If there is only one thing I can say in this preview that I hope you take with you into your draft, it is this: beware the Lakers.

I think that in basketball terms this is a fabulous team. In fantasy terms, I think it has three second-round picks, only one of them particularly enticing, plus Steve Nash who is almost certain to be overdrafted. It’s a strange situation but there are some potential sleepers here that you should take some interest in. As always, teams that make a big splash end up with overvalued players at the draft. With the Lakers, though, there is a lot of close critical attention being paid to them in fantasy terms, and so their best players are slipping down in drafts, towards where their real value is. Which means that if people are avoiding Kobe Bryant in your auction, take advantage.

A big part of my lowered expectations for the Lakers is that their pace, never quick, will probably diminish even with the arrival of Mr. Seven Seconds Or Less. A big frontcourt with good offensive rebounders means that it will be in the Lakers’ interest to slow the pace; their good size and the ability of Kobe and Steve to create gives them a halfcourt advantage.

Best to Own

Kobe Bryant. Kobe is the king of the shooting guards. Among guys rated only at SG, Kobe is head, shoulders, and most of the chest above everyone else (the next-best SG-only in ADP is Marcus Thornton, who I take a very close look at in Part II). Kobe is also the Laker who will benefit most from Steve Nash’s wizardry. His efficiency will go up, and he will lead all SG-rated guys in points. But the biggest attraction is the potential upside. Kobe could end up getting more open shots than ever. If you’re drafting last in a 12-team league, get him with one of those two picks on the turn. Kobe’s potentially a very strong play because of the weakness of the elite at the SG position. At 34 with new star teammates, he is a huge risk, but the very best kind.

Dwight Howard. Always a difficult play because he forces you to pay more attention to FT% and A/T at other positions. He’s also hurting. The rebounding still makes him a must play, but he’ll have fewer boards to grab.

Pau Gasol. A lovely player, but a definite fantasy wild card. If you want to bet against Howard’s health, Gasol makes sense lower in the second round (his ADP is 22.6; this seems like a good spot). Look for his efficiency to increase with Nash in LA, though not as much as Kobe’s.

Steve Nash. He’s a terrific athlete, but I do not see Nash playing as much in volume terms with the Lakers as he has done recently with the Suns. The 82-game schedule, another year of age, and he’ll need to play less thanks to some big leads. Might be worth a fourth-round pick if you’re big-heavy; his turnovers could be way down.

Solid Contributors

When you have four guys that good, you won’t have any other solid contributors.

Sleepers

Jordan Hill. An interesting, high-efficiency player who is probably the fifth-best Laker. He’ll be deferring to better players, This might come back to bite me, but I’m avoiding him. But I don’t necessarily think you should; he is flying under the radar and if he gets a chance to play he should explode, even in this setup.

Players to Avoid

Antawn Jamison. May play a lot if Howard is hurt, rested or babied and should get quite a few minutes regardless despite not starting. He’s still pretty good, too. But he’s 36, his skills have eroded considerably, and he’s not a guy who will do much for you.

Metta World Peace. In real life as in fantasy, he’s a fascinating player but despite a nominal starting role and potentially some serious minutes (his defensive skills are more in demand when you’re ahead) he’s the only Laker likely to be a worse shooter.

Devin Ebanks. Might become a cheap source of blocks but doesn’t have the skills to be trusted on such a deep team. I think he’s well behind Hill.

High Risk/High Reward

Jodie Meeks. He probably won’t play enough but he’s a good player and if the Lakers do run, they may be doing it out of a three-guard set a lot.

Steve Blake. I think Blake is a pretty terrible player. Really terrible, even. But Steve Nash is not made of steel and boot leather, and being the point guard for this team is a heavenly opportunity. A very, very long shot.

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are a powerhouse and Chris Sheridan thinks they had an A+ offseason to boot, based on dumping Mo Williams and adding Lamar Odom, Jamal Crawford and Grant Hill. As I say those names, you can sort of see why a great group of additions in real terms is not necessarily a great group of additions in fantasy terms. However this does mean you have a good shot at some of the Clips’ complementary pieces in lower rounds.

Best to Own

Chris Paul. The best point guard thanks to FG%, FT%, assists, and especially steals and A/T. I love him and he’s a far safer bet than the other good point guards. The third-best player in roto; don’t let him slip past the third pick.

Blake Griffin. An ADP of 27.4 in Yahoo! makes Griffin a serious target. I think his already great rebounding will improve, and Griffin is getting better in the halfcourt. Free throws are a serious issue. The key with Griffin remains how his mental game catches up with his physical game. As players get used to him, they’ve become less afraid of his immense physical skills. That means that Griffin has to adjust. Watch him play, watch him rebound, watch him in the post, and trade him away or trade for him accordingly.

Solid Contributors

DeAndre Jordan. Jordan should get the ball more as his offensive game diversifies. His excellent FG% makes him your best friend if you have iffy shooters on the wings, but if he scores more he might hurt your free throw numbers. That said, his ADP of 89 at Yahoo! is probably too high. He’s a 9th-rounder, not a 7th.

Jamal Crawford. I found Crawford a profitable player to own in Atlanta and he could return to that status in LA, especially as Billups is a question mark. Should get lots of minutes anyway and lots of chances to bomb away from deep. I think his poor 3FG% in Portland was an aberration.

Sleepers

Chauncey Billups. Should be back soon. Age and health are question marks, otherwise his ADP of 134 means that you’ll get value when he plays. Should still score despite sharing a backcourt with Chris Paul.

Players to Avoid

Caron Butler. Butler hurt a lot of fantasy teams last year with poor shooting and his minutes should slide with Crawford and Grant Hill in LA.

Grant Hill. Takes remarkable care of himself, but competition for minutes and declining skills make me shy away.

Eric Bledsoe, Ronny Turiaf. The backups to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin might not play a lot.

High Risk/High Reward

Lamar Odom. This isn’t even one for the draft; Odom was beyond terrible last year. Keep an eye on his camp if you have a late draft though, and if he’s on the waiver wire in your league watch his early performances.

Matt Barnes. Barnes is a surprisingly good rebounder but he won’t play enough. Still, he helps in a lot of ways and could win the competition for minutes.

Thanks to Kimberly N for the Blake Griffin photo.

CONTINUE READING Part II…

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