StatBox Free Agency Breakdown: Hawks win, Bucks, Mavs and Jennings lose in point guard derby

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Brandon JenningsAs free agency and summer league wind down and the steamy, sultry dog days of summer commence, there is still at least one valuable free agent still on the board — Brandon Jennings.

While Chris Paul, Jeff Teague and most other point guards went off the market in this annual game of monetary musical chairs, there are two notable parties that lost out in a big way: Jennings, and the Dallas Mavericks.

StatBox Free Agency Breakdown: Winners & Losers July 11 Update

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Most of the star players in free agency are now off the board, but there are still plenty of impact players to discuss in this updated version of the Free Agency Breakdown with unique analytic angles. We here at Sheridan Hoops will break everything down for you into bite sized Winners & Losers style pieces.

HowardThe Houston Rockets, GM Daryl Morey and Dwight Howard were WINNERS after agreeing to a four-year deal worth $88 million to finally, mercifully, ending the Dwight Howard sweepstakes. Morey set out a year ago to acquire two stars to legitimately compete in this SuperTeam Era that currently rules the NBA and got them in Howard and Harden.

Houston also signed Francisco Garcia to a team-friendly contract worth $1.3 million over two years. Garcia could probably replace Carlos Delfino in a spacer-type role for Houston after shooting 37.4 percent from three last season. Houston then picked up another spacer in Reggie Williams, who needs to greatly improve from his 30.6 shooting percentage from three last season with Charlotte.

Of course, the Howard deal makes the Los Angeles Lakers the big losers of the offseason for getting nothing out of Howard and looking ridiculous in doing so. They will now try to delude themselves into thinking players like LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony will come next offseason. Good. Freaking. Luck.

But if there is any consolation for Laker fans, I do like their signing of Chris Kaman a lot. Despite a sharp decrease in minutes with the Mavericks last season, from 29.2 to 20.7 per game, Kaman shot 50.7 percent from the field (his best percentage in a season in which he played over 40 games since the 2005-2006 season) and averaged 10.5 points with 5.6 rebounds. His Win Shares per 48 minutes was his best mark since the 2007-2008 campaign. Expect better production in LA with a slightly increased workload. And Jordan Farmar won’t be a bad player either for the veteran’s minimum.

Josh SmithDwight Howard’s good friend, Josh Smith, ended up with Detroit for four-years and $56 million and Al Jefferson cashed in for three years and $41 million with Charlotte. This brings us a really interesting philosophical question: Can these players be the highest paid, and best, players for playoff teams? The answer is likely no. But does that mean the teams shouldn’t try?

Despite a subpar year by his standards Smith is still a really good player, so the jury is still out on this signing for the Pistons. Smith will make a really good frontcourt with Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond, but do the Pistons have the backcourt to compete? Not right now, even with the Chauncey Billups signing (two years, $5 million).

LAC_Billups_ChaunceyBillups will add veteran leadership and a fan favorite to the Detroit roster, but he’s only played 42 total games over the last two seasons. But when he’s played he’s been good, shooting 36.7 percent from three last season with a Win Share/48 number that’s well above average. It’s just hard to envision Billups being healthy all season. Billups will join Will Bynum, who Detroit re-signed to an affordable two-year deal worth $5.75 million. Bynum shot a career best 46.9 percent from the field and averaged nearly 10 points per game for the Pistons in 2012-2013.

It’ll also be interesting to see how the team uses reigning Italian League MVP Gigi Datome, who inked a two-year deal worth $3.5 million. Our resident Euro expert A.J. Mitnick told me that he’ll need to adjust to the NBA game, but the potential is there for Datome to become a nice NBA player. I’ll take his word for it…

On the Charlotte side of things, there’s no doubt that Jefferson is a really, really good player. Anyone who shoots nearly 50 percent from the field and averages nearly 18 points and over nine boards per game is really good. His defense will certainly help an inept Bobcats team in that department, but his offensive rating of 109 last season leaves something to be desired.

Can Jefferson, Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo coexist in the frontcourt? Can Jefferson be the best player on a playoff team? Jefferson has made the playoffs just twice in his nine-season career, losing in the first round on both occasions. Golden State signed David Lee to an enormous contract, and Golden State ended up okay by hitting it big by drafting Stephen Curry, Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson. Charlotte will have to do that in order to not look foolish with this Jefferson signing, so, again, the jury is still out.

StatBox Free Agency Breakdown: Houston and Golden State among the weekend’s big winners, Lakers, Mavs and Bucks lose out

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While you were barbecuing, partying, working, relaxing or otherwise enjoying your extended July 4 weekend, a total of 14 teams made notable moves ranging from The Dwecision down to the smart or foolish signings of role players. And since we live in a country where instant gratification rules the day and short attention spans allows games like Candy Crush to reap $633,000 a day in revenue, we here at Sheridan Hoops will break everything down for you into bite sized Winners & Losers style pieces.

HowardThe Houston Rockets, GM Daryl Morey and Dwight Howard were WINNERS after agreeing to a four-year deal worth $88 million to finally, mercifully, ending the Dwight Howard sweepstakes. It will be interesting to see how Howard’s addition impacts the Rockets’ NBA-best pace numbers from last season. Will they try to slow things down with Howard in the half-court and change things up from their James Harden-led playoff run from last season? How will Howard perform along with Jeremy Lin in the pick-and-roll? How will Howard coexist with Omer Asik, who now reportedly wants out?

At this point, all these questions don’t really matter. Morey set out a year ago to acquire two stars to legitimately compete in this SuperTeam Era that currently rules the NBA and got them in Howard and Harden. Howard can settle down and finally concentrate on, we hope, playing basketball. And as an added bonus, Houston signed Francisco Garcia to a team-friendly contract worth $1.3 million over two years. Garcia could probably replace Carlos Delfino in a spacer-type role for Houston after shooting 37.4 percent from three last season.

Of course, this makes the Los Angeles Lakers the big losers of the weekend for getting nothing out of Howard and looking ridiculous in doing so. They will now try to delude themselves into thinking players like LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony will come next offseason. Good. Freaking. Luck.

Mighty Moke’s Top 50 Free Agents — July 6 Update

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Smoove Takes the Motor City

Traditionally, after the biggest of fish find themselves off of the market, the second and third tier quickly follow.

On Friday, when it became common knowledge that Dwight Howard was headed to Houston, the Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors rebounded quite nicely, agreeing to terms with Paul Millsap, Jose Calderon and Andre Iguodala, respectively.

Now, just one day later, Andrew Bynum appears to be close to signing with the Mavericks, as well, while Josh Smith has reportedly agreed to terms with the Detroit Pistons on a four-year deal worth $56 million.

Carl Landry was swooped up by the Sacramento Kings, as well. He will sign a four-year deal worth $27 million with the club.

Jarrett Jack? He will be heading to Cleveland to (presumably) back up Kyrie Irving. He rebounded rather nicely, securing a four-year deal worth $25 million.

And the latest of the more renowned names that is off of the market is Devin Harris. On Saturday, Harris agreed to return to where it all began—Dallas. Harris will sign with the Mavericks, who selected him with the fifth overall pick of the 2004 draft. According to ESPN’s Marc Stein, the deal is for three years, $9 million.

With Smith now off of the market, SheridanHoops’ top five free agents are all off of the board. Chris Paul and David West re-upped with their incumbent teams, while Howard, Smith and Al Jefferson bolted their teams and left their precious employers (and their respective Bird rights).

All eyes are now squarely on Monta Ellis and Nikola Pekovic.

Just to keep you up to date, with Smith being taken off of the market, the SH Top 5 Free Agents have all found homes, 10 of our top 15 and 18 of our top 25 are all gone.

The details are below.

It has been a turbulent and rocky six days, and anyone who has watched it closely certainly knows that the Howard saga did not end without its fair share of drama. As for where we stand right now, the Lakers have released a statement regarding Howard’s decision to defect, Rockets general manager Daryl Morey granted an exclusive interview to Comcast SportsNet Houston, and Howard himself released a brief statement via his Twitter feed. In other words, it is as official as it will get until July 10, when Howard can officially ink his deal.

In the early hours on Saturday, we saw a few of the “other” free agents agree to new deals, as well. The San Antonio Spurs, after agreeing to sign Marco Belinelli, have agreed to terms with Jeff Pendergraph on a two-year deal. The Rockets, the day after learning that Howard would join them, have agreed to bring Francisco Garcia and Omri Casspi to Houston. The terms? Two-years, $2.6 million and two-years, $2 million, respectively.

And finally, the very productive Dorrell Wright has agreed to head to Portland after shaking hands with the Trail Blazers on a two-year, $6 million deal.

The top five available remaining free agents, per SheridanHoops’ rankings: (1) Nikola Pekovic, (2) Monta Ellis, (3) Jeff Teague, (4) Brandon Jennings and (5) Andrew Bynum.

J.J. Hickson, Corey Brewer and Mo Williams are still out there, as well, and any of those three players can have a profound impact on a playoff team looking to take a step forward in next season’s playoffs, though, obviously, the road to the NBA Finals will probably travel through Miami out East and San Antonio Oklahoma City Houston Oakland Memphis Los Angeles some city west of New Orleans.

Here’s your mid-evening update.

LAL_Howard_Dwight1. Dwight Howard (Center, LA Lakers)

Still just 27, everyone is willing to overlook the disappointing 2012-13 campaign since D12 was playing hobbled for most of it. Fair questions persist as to whether he can lead a team to the promised land, but we know that any team would be willing to roll the dice to find out. If you called any GM and offered Howard in exchange for his starting center, all (except Orlando) would say yes. That’s why he’s still numero uno.  JULY 4 UPDATE —  The Lakers removed a Howard banner and Hakeem Olajuwon and Daryl Morey both believe that “H-Town” will become “Howard” town. JULY 5 UPDATE — Word now expected to come via Dwight’s Twitter account. If you spend your weekend checking Twitter 2,491 times, you, too, are living the life of a sportswriter. We are expecting Houston, but still awaiting an official announcement. JULY 6 UPDATE — Howard has chosen to sign with the Houston Rockets. The terms? Four years, $88 million. He left a fifth guaranteed year and $30 million in guaranteed salary on the table to defect from the Los Angeles Lakers. Howard has an opt-out after 2015-16, Yahoo reports.

Paul70X1002. Chris Paul (Point Guard, LA Clippers) 

After leading the Clippers to their best season in franchise history and first division title, Paul has gotten over the fact that Donald Sterling outed him as the reason for Vinny Del Negro’s departure. Sterling needed to bring in Doc Rivers to make peace with CP3, and acquiring the coach from Boston was a move that assured Paul is staying. JULY 2 UPDATE — Paul has agreed to re-sign with the Clippers on a five-year, $107 million max. deal. 

UTA_Jefferson_Al (1)3.  Al Jefferson (Center, Utah Jazz)

One thing we know: A big man who has proven that he can score with his back to the basket is a very valuable commodity. Jefferson is arguably a better all-around offensive weapon than Howard. He is still relatively young at 28 and has been a consistent force in the paint for the Jazz. The bum knee that limited him to 50 games in 2008-09 is now a distant memory. A max player, for sure. JULY 2 UPDATE — Jazz offering 80 percent discount on his jersey (and Paul Millsap’s). Will meet with Bobcats Wednesday. JULY 4 UPDATE — He surprised the entire NBA by agreeing to terms with the Charlotte Bobcats on a three-year deal worth $41 million. The final year has an opt-out.

IND_West_David4. David West (Power Forward, Indiana Pacers)

A run to the conference finals could not have come at a better time for West, who had made it known (as had the Pacers) that his preference is to remain in Indianapolis, where he is perfectly cast as a third scorer and is depended on mostly for his sweet mid-range touch and tenacity in the paint.  Paul George hits the market next summer, and returning president Larry Bird says West is No. 1 priority but Pacers will not pay luxury tax under any circumstances. JULY 3 UPDATE — David West has agreed to re-sign with the Indiana Pacers on a three-year, $36 million deal. 

ATL_Smith_Josh5. Josh Smith (Power Forward, Atlanta Hawks)

J-Smoove made headlines this past season when he made it known he would be seeking a four-year max deal worth upwards of $15 million per year. It is difficult to justify paying that kind of money to a player who has not made a single All-Star team in nine years. Still, Smith is one of the most effective defensive players in the league and an explosive finisher in the paint. But which GM will risk his reputation on Smith? That’s a big question. JULY 1 UPDATE — Met with Pistons president Joe Dumars, who is unwilling to make a max offer. Then met with Rockets, who would try to add him in a sign-and-trade with Atlanta if Howard picks Houston. JULY 4 UPDATE — Smith has not been offered the max deal he was looking for, but the Houston Rockets would like to pair him with Howard if D12 signs on. Smith would like for that to happen, yet another waiting on D12. JULY 5 UPDATE — Omer Asik is being dangled to the Atlanta Hawks in exchange for a sign-and-trade deal that sends Smith to the Hawks to form the worst free-throw shooting frontcourt in recent memory… IF Dwight signs with the Rockets. JULY 6 UPDATE — Now that Howard has agreed to join the Rockets, general manager Daryl Morey is expected to intensify his pursuit of Smith. JULY 6 UPDATE (2) — After hearing that Smith was potentially headed to the Houston Rockets to be paired up with childhood friend, Dwight Howard, it was first reported by Yahoo! Sports that Smith had agreed to terms with the Detroit Pistons on a four-year deal worth $56 million. That less than the max. he was looking for, but it was probably the best offer out there for him. Smith is the final member of the SH Top 5 to be signed.

MIN_Pekovic_Nikola6. Nikola Pekovic [R] (Center, Minnesota Timberwolves)

Guaranteed to be this year’s recipient of a fat, risky contract. Although significantly older than Omer Asik, Big Pek has a higher upside and more polished offensive game. When it comes to big men, general managers roll the dice quite often. We will see it with Andrew Bynum and we will see it with Pekovic. But the thinking here is that Pekovic will get more money — unless he gets hurt bowling. JULY 2 UPDATE — Quiet on this front, although the Cavs are reportedly interested. Have cap flexibility to offer backloaded contract. He is waiting on Dwight to make his Dwecision. JULY 4 UPDATE — The Timberwolves, according to the Pioneer Press, want to bring Pekovic back. There will be a bidding war over Pek, though. We guarantee it. JULY 6 UPDATE — With Howard off the market, Pekovic becomes the top center on the market, and arguably the top free agent, depending on how you rank him, head-to-head with Josh Smith. Pek’s time to get paid is coming, whether it be with the Timberwolves or another team. 

Iguodala-Denver7. Andre Iguodala (Small Forward, Denver Nuggets)

Interesting question: Who is worth more to you? Iggy? Or Monta Ellis? If you answer Ellis, it probably means you overvalue a volume scorer who cannot elevate his teammates. If you answer Iggy, though, it means that you properly recognize and appreciate his ability to affect every single facet of any game he plays, even if he is not shooting or scoring particularly well. A great defender — and GMs value that nowadays more than they used to. JULY 3 UPDATE — Kings offered a four-year, $52 million deal, but pulled it after not being given an immediate “Yes.” JULY 5 UPDATE – Nuggets offered more money, but Iggy chose to sign with the Warriors, who were positively Dolanesque in their willingness to pay a very steep price.

ELLIS_MONTA-bucks8. Monta Ellis (Shooting Guard, Milwaukee Bucks)

The secret is out: Ellis is a volume scorer who is probably best served as a sixth man who’s only responsibility is to light it up off the bench. Only problem? He turned down a two-year, $24 million extension from the Bucks that we think was more than fair. If Ellis is looking for more on the open market, it shows that he has a false sense of his value. A very talented player, he should draw interest from a team that has cap space and a dearth of options as to whom to spend it on. JULY 1 UPDATE — Knicks are interested, but can only offer $3.2 million. Nobody takes a $9 million haircut. JULY 4 UPDATE — With J.R. Smith, Tony Allen, Tyreke Evans and Kyle Korver all off the market, Ellis and O.J. Mayo are the top shooting guards out there. We peg Ellis’ fair market value at four years, $36-$40 million. JULY 6 UPDATE — Ellis is all but guaranteed to find a new home, as the Milwaukee Bucks have agreed to terms with O.J. Mayo. That’s the bad news for Ellis. The good news? He is arguably the best scorer still available on the market, and there are teams with cap space that still need a scorer. The Nuggets are said to have some interest after being spurned by Andre Iguodala.

SAC_Evans_Tyreke9. Tyreke Evans [R] (Point Guard/Small Forward, Sacramento Kings)

One of this generation’s enigmas, Evans is still searching for the touch that enabled him to become one of the few rookies in history to average 20 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists. Still just 23, NBA GMs will think a new coach and system can re-tap that potential, and potential gets you paid. The Kings will have a new coach and a new system, so they should have a “should we match?” question on their hands come July 10. JULY 2 UPDATE — Pelicans have made a four year offer for between $40-$48 million. See how Reggie Miller reacted. JULY 3 UPDATE — Though it does not hold much weight, Evans has reportedly let it be known that he wants a change of scenery and hopes to end up with the PelicansJULY 4 UPDATE — Evans will get his wish and be dealt to the New Orleans Pelicans. He will sign a four-year deal worth $44 million once the moratorium is over on July 10.

ATL_Teague_Jeff10. Jeff Teague [R] (Point Guard, Atlanta Hawks)

Perhaps the most intriguing young point guard on the market, his value has been established at about $8-$9 million thanks to the extensions doled out to Jrue Holiday and Ty Lawson. He probably stays in Atlanta, though in-demand restricted free agents sometimes get overpaid. (Ask Landry Fields.) Much depends on what GM Danny Ferry pulls off with all his cap space. For a team with only five players under contract (not counting draftees), he is somewhat expendable given that Lou Williams is one of those five. JULY 1 UPDATE — Where does Teague rank among point guards? Read this. JULY 3 UPDATE – Bucks coach Larry Drew likes him and would like Milwaukee to pursue. 

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Mighty Moke’s Top 50 Free Agents – July 4 Update

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JR Smith

J.R. Smith Will Remain in New York

Finally, a thing (or two) for fans of the New York Knicks to smile about.

The Knicks have agreed to terms with both J.R. Smith and Pablo Prigioni.

Smith is set to return to Gotham City on a four-year deal that is expected to be worth right around $25 million, while Prigioni has agreed to a three-year deal worth a reported $5 million. The Knicks used a portion of their taxpayer exception to re-sign Prigioni, and now have about $1.75 million of it remaining. They still hope to retain Chris Copeland, but he is receiving tons of interest on the open market.

Even still, on July 4, as scores of Americans settle down in front of their grills and watch some fireworks, Jim Dolan’s annual BBQ extravaganza will probably be a bit more festive than usual.

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