StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Melo hurting Knicks, Pacers defense perseveres and Thunder in trouble

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Can a team win with its star player only scoring one point per shot? It’s not going so well over the past few games for Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks. Which players drive the Pacers in its incredibly volatile series against Atlanta? Can Oklahoma City win with Reggie Jackson as its second option on offense. We’re going behind the numbers from Wednesday night’s trio of Game Fives in today’s StatBox playoff breakdown.

Knicks won’t win with VoluMelo
Carmelo_Anthony
The Knicks let a veteran team like the Celtics hang around on Wednesday in Boston’s 92-86 win and gain some confidence going into Friday night’s Game 6. The Knicks shot under 40 percent, and a lot of that has to do with the inefficient play of its best player.

The New York Knicks have a superstar player in Carmelo Anthony when he’s an efficient shooter and passer out of double teams. There seems to only a slight difference in Anthony’s performance in wins and losses during the regular season, but it’s enough of a difference to point out some tendencies.

Carmelo Anthony Shots FG % 3 FG % Points Rebounds FTA FT %
Wins 21.8 46.5 39.6 29 6.7 7.5 83.5
Losses 23.2 41.4 34.1 28 7.2 8 81.9

In losses, Anthony takes more shots at a pedestrian percentage across the board. The higher rebounding and free throw attempt numbers are due to his increased minutes in losses (39.2) rather than wins (36.1). What the Knicks have seen from its best player over the last three games is something/someone I call VoluMelo. He’s become a volume shooter who’s basketball-monopolizing approach hurts the team.

It doesn’t take a mathematical savant to realize that a player isn’t being efficient when he’s taking as many shots as the points he scores. In the last three games, Anthony scored 84 points on 84 shots. That’s really, really bad, considering shots are worth two or three points and there are free throws, as well. Anthony scored 70 points on 53 shots in the first two games, and even that’s not amazing.

“I told you from Game 1 that this wasn’t going to be a breeze. It wasn’t going to be a walk in the park. Them guys were going to fight and they’re showing some fight right now,” Anthony said. “They threw a couple punches at us now and it’s time for us to do the same.”

The way Anthony is shooting, he seems to be throwing a punch or two at his own team. Until New York gets Melo instead of VoluMelo, the Knicks are going to be in deep trouble against the Celtics.

Panicked Pacers persevere
Roy Hibbert, Al Horford
After squandering a 2-0 series lead, the Indiana Pacers were panicking. But in Wednesday’s Game 5, Indiana went back to what got them the Eastern Conference’s third seed: elite level defense and other-worldly efficiency from the frontcourt.

It was a defensive tour-de-force in the Pacers’ 106-83 win, limiting the Hawks to 33.3 percent shooting. Josh Smith, Al Horford and Jeff Teague combined to shoot 13- for-46 from the field. On the other hand, the Indiana frontcourt trio of Roy Hibbert, David West and Paul George shot 21-for-31 as part of a Pacer offense that shot 50.7 percent from the floor.

“This is the first time that I felt like we’ve played true defense in this series,” West said. “I thought everyone came in and stayed with the game plan in terms of being aggressive, and our hands were active and we just made plays on the defensive end.”

As you’ll see in this nice info-graphic, the Pacers go as far as Hibbert, West and George take them:

Pacer Frontcourt FG % Points Rebounds FTA Plus/Minus
Game 1 39 52 28 21 43
Game 2 48.6 49 18 19 45
Game 3 42.4 42 24 16 -20
Game 4 41.5 50 25 15 -8
Game 5 67.7 63 24 23 64

When the trio got aggressive and went to the free throw line at least 19 times, they won. Whenever the players had a positive plus/minus, Indiana won. If the Pacers want to close out the Hawks in Game 6 and win the first road game of the series, you’ll know where to look for Indiana’s production.

Are the thin Thunder in trouble?
Reggie_Jackson
Russell Westbrook is injured. James Harden is on the other team. So who’s the second option for the Oklahoma City Thunder besides Kevin Durant? Reggie Jackson took the second most shots on the team in Wednesday’s 107-100 loss to Houston that was troublesome for the West’s second seed top seed to say the very least.

Kevin Martin shot 1-for-10 and the OKC bench scored a total of 19 points on 23 shots. Even without Jeremy Lin on Wednesday, Houston went eight deep and got a combined 32 points from afterthoughts Francisco Garcia and Patrick Beverley. During the regular season, Jackson took 4.6 shots per game. During the postseason, that average is up to 10 attempts per contest and rising. Jackson is not a second scoring option for a playoff team. It’s that simple.

Serge Ibaka shot 6-for-14 in the Game 5 defeat, and he and Martin need to many more touches if the Thunder plan on advancing to the second round against either the Clippers or Grizzlies. If not, the team’s management may be kicking itself for sacrificing its short-term depth with Harden.

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

Road Warriors Win Again; Tony Parker Triple-Double Leads Spurs

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As Chris Bernucca said in his must-read column yesterday, the best team flying under the radar is the Golden State Warriors.  What Mark Jackson’s team is doing in the real NBA is amazing; our job is to interpret their value in fantasy hoops.

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Bernucca: Money for nothing, checks for free

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Now that we are about a month into the NBA season, are you disappointed in the performance of a player or two on your favorite team?

Take a number and get in line.

There are dozens of players who are not coming close to meeting expectations this season. And when you factor in their salaries and how much they limit their team’s financial flexibility, it can be downright infuriating.

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Lithuania-Dominican and Russia-Nigeria today for 2 Olympic spots

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The Greeks are out, Bo McCalebb is out, J.J. Barea and Carlos Arroyo are out, and there won’t be any Angolans to elbow around at the 2012 Olympic men’s basketball tournament.

On a day of wild swings and finishes at the quarterfinals of the Olympic qualifying tournament in Caracas, Venezuela,  the field of Olympic contenders was reduced to four — Russia, the Dominican Republic, Nigeria and Lithuania.

Two spots will be determined in today’s semifinals, with both of those teams going into Team USA’s group. The losers will play Sunday for the final berth.

The upset of the day belonged to Nigeria, which defeated Greece 80-79.

From FIBA.com: “An unlikely cameo from Ade Dagunduro has delivered Nigeria one of the most memorable victories in international basketball history and put one Nigerian foot into the London Olympics. After scoring just 19 points in the tournament to that point, the 1.95m guard nailed his country’s last seven points to secure a thrilling 80-79 Quarter-Final win over Greece. First Dagunduro hit a mid-range jumper with 70 seconds remaining from an Ike Diogu offensive rebound, and then a pull-up three-pointer with the shot clock winding down to reclaim a two-point lead with 30 seconds to play. After Kostas Papanikolaou nailed a triple of his own with 14 seconds left, Dagunduro then drove to the basket and drew a foul on Nikolas Zisis. To the delight of the deafening Nigerian fans, he slotted both free throws and then blocked Vassilis Spanoulis’ game-winning three-point attempt to spark wild mid-court celebrations. While Dagunduro’s 14 points were the icing on the cake, Ike Diogu (17 points, 12 rebounds) was the rock of Gibraltar. Al-Farouq Aminu (13 points, 5 rebounds) was also important, making repeated big plays throughout the game. For Greece, Spanoulis (25 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists) was the star but only Ioannis Bourousis (18 points, 5 rebounds) and Georgios Printezis (10 points) made it to double figures in support. Video highlights:

The comeback of the quarterfinals belonged to the Dominicans, who erased a 20-point second-quarter deficit to defeat Macedonia 86-76 despite 35 points from former University of New Orleans guard Bo McCalebb.

From FIBA.com: “The game appeared out of reach when the trailed by 20 points with four minutes to play in the second quarter, but a crucial 11-4 run to end the half opened the door for a revival. The hot shooting of Francisco Garcia then made the second half one to remember for their large band of travelling fans. Garcia finished with 28 points, 21 coming after halftime. Al Horford (14 points, 15 rebounds) overcame a horror first half through his hustle on the boards, while Jack-Michael Martinez (14 points, 13 rebounds), Ronald Ramon (13 points) and Elpidio Fortuna (9 points, 7 rebounds) all made valuable contributions at both ends. … The Dominican Republic opened the second half with a 12-2 run that brought the score to 43-40 and crowd to fever pitch, only to watch MKD extend the margin back to nine points. A Ramon three-pointer closed the gap to three but McCalebb immediately answered in kind. It wasn’t until Horford – who was 1-of-10 at three-quarter time – finally connected on a jump shot with 8:46 left in the fourth term that his team claimed the lead. From there Garcia made the game his own, scoring 10 points for the quarter as the Dominicans showed great poise.

After spraining his ankle in the previous game, Timofey Mozgov was sidelined for Russia. But David Blatt’s team held Angola to five second-quarter points to move on with an 80-65 victory over Angola.

From FIBA.com: “Perennial go-to man Andrei Kirilenko (14 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists) was once again irresistible, pouring in nine first quarter points to help build a lead from which the Angolans never looked likely to come back.
With Kirilenko involved in almost every play, Vitaliy Fridzon (18 points) and Alexander Kaun (17) provided much of what remained of the scoring with Mozgov absence barely noticeable. In spite of a powerful showing by Eduardo Mingas (20) and solid displays by guards Armando Costa (10) and Carlos Morais (14) the Angolans struggled to cope with the strong Russian low post play. In game that will be remembered for some great inside play and some very mediocre three point shooting, the Russians once again lived up to their reputation of one of the best defensive units and most tactically solid teams in international basketball.”

Finally, the perennial European powerhouse from Lithuania got a crucial play from veteran Sarunas Jasikevicius in the final minute to defeat Puerto Rico 76-72.

From FIBA.com: “Puerto Rico had several opportunities to draw clear in the first half, leading by eight and six in the first and second quarters respectively thanks to the inside-out combination of JJ Barea and Peter John Ramos. But they could not string together baskets at the crucial time, whereas Martynas Pocius and Maciulis hit important buckets to keep Lithuania close. With the Europeans being awarded 15 free three throws in the final 6:11 of the second quarter they took a 40-38 halftime lead. In contrast, it was Lithuania who couldn’t break away in the third quarter despite controlling play. A spectacular Arroyo fade-away and a Galindo triple allowed Puerto Rico to reduce a seven-point  deficit to just two at the final break. The story was the same in the final term, Lithuania out by seven before Arroyo and Galindo struck again to reduce the gap to one with 4:50 to play. When Arroyo hit his second triple the crowd erupted and the Americans (sic) had their first lead since the second quarter. In a gripping finale, Jasikevicius made his strong move to put his team up by one before a wild pass from Barea (5/15 field goals, 3 turnovers) robbed his team of a potentially game-winning shot.