StatBox NBA Finals Breakdown: Spurs up the ante in huge road win over Heat

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Tony Parker, FranceIndiana took Miami to seven games in the Eastern Conference finals but the Heat were able to knock out the Pacers in Game 7. The San Antonio Spurs may have as much talent as the Pacers, but they’re a much better team. 

With sturdy defense, unusual discipline and unbelievable performances from its two brightest stars, San Antonio edged Miami, 92-88, to take Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.

First of all, and most importantly, Miami has to contend with an efficient, all-around point guard for the first time this postseason. With all due respect to Brandon Jennings (at times a volume shooter), Nate Robinson (a good bench sparkplug but not much more) and George Hill (a really good defender with a relatively limited offensive game), no backcourt player in these playoffs has done more for his team than Tony Parker.

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StatBox Breakdown: How it all went so wrong for the Indiana Pacers in Game 7

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Paul GeorgeThe dam seemed secure after Indiana’s pretty convincing Game 6 win over Miami. Then in the first half of Game 7, the dam broke, the floodgates came rushing open, and Indiana’s worst nightmare was realized.

The Pacers committed 14 first half turnovers and were never really in the game, falling quietly to the Heat 99-76 in the finale of a fantastic Eastern Conference Finals series.

“We just focused on every possession, trying to get stops, play Miami Heat defense, create havoc,” LeBron James said after his 32-point effort in Game 7. “I thought we did that tonight.”

Consider what changed from Game 6 to Game 7 and tell me this wasn’t the worst-case scenario for Indiana.

  • Indiana couldn’t shoot: The Game 7 loss must really sting, because Indiana’s field goal defense was really, really good over the last two games. Miami shot 36.1 percent in Game 6 and 39.5 percent in Game 7, but the Pacers went from 50 percent shooting in Game 6, to 40.6 percent on Monday. A huge reason for Indiana’s decline is not only Miami’s impressive defensive intensity, which should obviously be lauded, but Indiana’s drop-off from three. The Pacers were 10-for-18 from three in Game 6, and an abysmal 6-for-20 in Game 7.
  • Miami had the urgency: Miami started being super aggressive, driving the ball into the lane and playing with the urgency that a Game 7 warranted. The Heat literally doubled its free throw attempts, improving from 19 in Game 6 to 38 on Monday night. The Las Vegas over/under on James free throws was 6 1/2, which he bested in the first half. The Heat only committed six fewer fouls than the Pacers did, but Miami made sure that the team was going strong to the hoop and getting to the foul line.”By any means necessary … we took care of business,” James said. Even Ray Allen got into the act, knocking down three huge treys in the first half to create separation in the second quarter.
  • Dwyane WadeWade finally showed up: Various members of the media suggested that Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra actually bench Dwyane Wade for Game 7 after a pretty dismal few games leading up to the elimination match. Looking at Wade’s stats, a case could have been easily made for that:

    Wade FG % Points Rebs FTA
    Games 4-6 32.4 12 3.67 5.67
    Game 7 43.8 21 9 9

    “Everything that happened in the first six games didn’t mean anything to us,” Wade said. “It was about tonight. It was about Game 7. It was about finding a way to win here at home.”
    Wade took it upon himself to make an impact in Game 7, and flourished by getting to the rim and the free throw line and grabbing rebounds over smaller Pacers. Wade had nine rebounds, more than anyone on the Pacers. Which leads us to the next reason why Game 7 was the worst-case scenario for Indiana.

  • The Pacers were outmuscled: Indiana, the best rebounding team in the NBA, lost the battle of the boards by seven, 43-36. After doubling up Miami in points in the paint in Game 6, 44-22, both teams scored 30 in the interior on Monday. That’s an enormous shift and a credit to Miami for adjusting and beating the Pacers at their own game. Chris Bosh finally woke up for Miami, getting all eight of his rebounds in the fateful first half. Paul George was basically neutralized completely in Game 7, and David West and Roy Hibbert couldn’t make the impact necessary to offset George’s off night.
  • The backcourt failed: It was really simple. Indiana won in this series when the starting backcourt of George Hill and Lance Stephenson combined to shoot over 40 percent, and lost when they failed to do so. They were a combined 8-for-22 shooting in Game 7 (36 percent) and lost. Clearly this was not the only determining factor in the game, but those 14 shots the duo missed could have been taken by other high percentage shooters. And those potential makes would have taken away rebounds and potential offensive opportunities for Miami. So it does add up.

There is no doubt that the Pacers had a tremendous season, coming within one game (really, one James overtime layup in Game 1) of reaching the NBA Finals without Danny Granger. If they can bring back David West and incorporate Granger into the fold, Indiana’s depth issue will be alleviated and the team will be even better defensively going into next season. That’s a scary thought for every other team in the Eastern Conference.

It was just not Indiana’s night on Monday. Miami raised its intensity level, won the battle inside, got to the line, took George out of the game, got a vintage effort from Wade and turned Indiana’s biggest game in several years into an unmitigated nightmare.

(RELATED: Hubbard: To Keep Building his Own Dynasty, LeBron Must Defeat Another)

(RELATED: Sheridan Picks Spurs to Win in 7)

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

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Bernucca: LeBron has another decision to make

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LeBron James Chris Bosh Dwyane WadeTonight in Miami, LeBron James has another “Decision.”

This one is not about where James is going to play, however. Tonight is about how he is going to play.

And this decision is tougher, because he doesn’t have days to think about it. He has about an hour, tops.

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StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Pacers reverse key trends to top Heat

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The refs gave this game to the Pacers? Why, because LeBron James fouled out for the second time in 128 career playoff games? That’s a convenient excuse. Miami was called for just five more fouls than Indiana and only attempted six fewer free throws in the game. If you look a little deeper, Indiana reversed three key trends in this series and helped the team get an enormous 99-92 win in Tuesday night’s Game 4 to help even the Eastern Conference Finals.

1) Indiana protected the paint

If there was any area the Pacers had an advantage going into this series, it was in the frontcourt, in the interior. Roy Hibbert, David West and Paul George had to be forces inside and Indiana had to dominate rebounding and points in the paint. In Game 4, Indiana outscored Miami 50-32 in the paint and out-rebounded the Heat by a 49-30 count. Here’s how these two stats made a difference through the series’ first quartet of contests:

Indiana Paint Point Dif Reb Dif Outcome
Game 1 -12 5 L
Game 2 0 7 W
Game 3 -16 9 L
Game 4 18 19 W

IND_Hibbert_RoyAs long as Indiana kept even with Miami in the painted area, they won. Hibbert has certainly been a strong part of this defensive effort. ESPN Stats & Info points out that James has driven into the paint with Hibbert on the court 18 times, and only has five points on 1-for-3 shooting to show for it. So Hibbert has certainly become a rim protector and a deterrent to Miami’s drives into the lane. The Heat shot just 39 percent on Tuesday, and Indiana’s dominance down low was an important factor.

“That’s what the series is about, who can get to who and do it for longer periods of time. They kept us out of the paint,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “We’ll just have to do it better.”

Indiana wants Miami to shoot jumpers. Mario Chalmers took 14 shots on Tuesday, more than Chris Bosh, Udonis Haslem, Chris Andersen and Shane Battier took combined, which the Pacers must have loved. Ray Allen became a volume shooter, taking 13 shots in part because of Indiana’s tighter defense inside.

2) Miami’s bigs were limited

It was really cramped this past weekend on the Birdman Andersen bandwagon, and for good reason. He hasn’t missed a shot all series and was a huge force off the bench. He was silent on Tuesday, not attempting a shot in 19 minutes after his nine-point, nine-rebound effort on Sunday. The clock also struck midnight for Haslem, who had just six points and two boards on Tuesday after his aberration in Game 3.

More importantly, Bosh was really limited on Tuesday. After averaging just over 16 points per game on 51.4 percent shooting over the first three games, Bosh scored just seven points on 1-for-6 shooting in 30 minutes and lamented Miami’s limits after the game.

“We had them right where we wanted them, but every time we would get a stop, especially in the fourth quarter, we didn’t come up with the rebound,” he said. “It was there for us, but we didn’t capitalize.”

3) Indiana’s guards showed up

Indiana’s starting frontcourt is getting most of the attention in this series, and for good reason, but don’t discount the impact George Hill and Lance Stephenson have on this series at both ends. The duo scored a combined 39 points in Game 4, one more than the pair’s total in both Pacer losses, as you’ll observe below:

Pacers Backcourt FG % Points Reb Assists Outcome
Game 1 21.1 12 16 10 L
Game 2 50 28 13 8 W
Game 3 35 26 2 4 L
Game 4 46.4 39 10 8 W

IND_STEPHENSON_LANCEIn Indiana’s one-point overtime loss in Game 1, Hill and Stephenson shot terribly but made up for it with series-leading rebound and assist totals. When the guards shoot over 35 percent combined from the field, a seemingly pedestrian benchmark, the Pacers win. They came back strong after the veritable goose egg in Game 3 with a well-rounded night and a well-earned win.

“All those guys in there, they believe we can win,” Hibbert said. “No matter what all the analysts or whoever says anything, they count us out, those guys in the locker room were ready to play and we went out and played our hearts out.”

Rather than the refs “giving” the game away to Indiana, the Pacers actually earned the win with strong interior play and a yeoman’s effort from its starting guards. If these trends remain in the Pacers’ favor, Miami will have a lot to worry about during Thursday night’s all-important Game 5.

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

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StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Spoelstra and James adjust in enormous Game 3 win

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Sometimes, it’s difficult to assess where blame ends and where giving credit begins. This is especially true when breaking down a lopsided sports contest, in this case the Miami Heat’s 114-96 blowout of the Indiana Pacers in Sunday’s Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

MIA_Spoelstra_ErikShould blame be placed on Indiana for allowing 70 first half points, or for shooting under 40 percent from the floor at home? Or should Miami be lauded and praised for committing just five turnovers and making the necessary adjustments to avenge Friday night’s loss in Game 2? This column will focus on the latter, because not enough credit was given to Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra after Sunday’s big win.

This is oversimplifying this series, but Miami has won both games when it’s won the battle of points in the paint and when it committed fewer turnovers. Spoelstra’s big adjustment between the second and third games was to put LeBron James in the post to free up other players. Boy, did it work.

James had a relatively quiet night for his standards, scoring just 22 points to go with only four rebounds, three assists and six free throw attempts. But look at what his teammates did!

220px-Udonis_HaslemUdonis Haslem had only scored 13 points in a game twice all season, against Milwaukee in the first round and on Dec. 12 against Washington, but reached that number in the first half  before he ended up with a season-high 17. Birdman Andersen continued his incredible postseason by scoring nine points on 4-for-4 shooting while corralling nine rebounds.

Haslem and Andersen scored as many points, 26, as Indiana’s starting backcourt of George Hill and Lance Stephenson. Blame assigned? A little bit. Credit given to Spoelstra and his players? Absolutely.

“I made a conscious effort to get down in the post tonight, to put pressure on their defense,” James said after the game. “The coaching staff wanted me to be down there tonight, and my teammates allowed me to do that.”

LeBron James and Dwyane WadePutting James down low allowed him to be the fulcrum for the Heat offense, and it fine-tuned a Miami attack that is nearly impossible to stop when really rolling. Miami’s number of 3-point attempts shrunk from 22 in Game 2 to 14 in Game 3, and its point in the paint increased from 40 (even with Indiana) in Game 2 to 52 in Game 3 (to Indiana’s 36).

“It was something we wanted to get to just to help settle us and get into a more aggressive attack,” Spoelstra said. “We wanted to be a little more aggressive, a little more committed to getting into the paint and seeing what would happen. LeBron was very committed and focused not to settle.”

Dwyane Wade didn’t settle either, with 18 points on 8-for-14 shooting to go with eight assists. Chris Bosh was 6-for-10 from the floor. After a fairly quiet run of several games, Mario Chalmers scored 14 points despite attempting just six field goals. Knicks fans used to watching Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith could appreciate that kind of efficiency.

Blame could certainly be assigned to Indiana. For its poor shooting effort at home, especially Stephenson and Paul George. George had a really bad night, shooting 3-for-10 from the field, turning it over five times and registering a game-low -17. The bench continues to be a dried up well in the scoring department after only netting 16 points to Miami’s 28.

Indiana still did a few things well. The team turned it over only 10 times, which is really good for them, took 44 free throws and was plus nine in rebounding.

Ultimately, however, credit needs to be given to Spoelstra, James and the Heat. For turning it over only five times on the road, in the conference finals. For shooting 54.5 percent from the floor and 24-for-28 from the line. For making the exact right adjustments at a crucial juncture in the series.

Vogel playoffs knicks_opt“If you’re not perfect guarding them, they’ll do what they did to us tonight,” Pacers coach Frank Vogel said. “Sometimes when you are perfect with your coverages, they still find a way to make baskets.”

In the back-and-forth nature of a best-of-seven series, now it’s Indiana’s turn to make the adjustments before Tuesday’s Game 4. And the players know it.

“LeBron can’t get five or six dribbles to get a post move,” Pacers Center Roy Hibbert said. “We have to make adjustments. He’s obviously a low-post threat but we have to make adjustments.”

Spoelstra and the Heat made the adjustments going into Game 3, and it paid huge dividends with a resounding 18-point road win and a tectonic shift in momentum in this series towards Miami. Your move, Indiana.

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

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