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There have been exactly a dozen NBA trades made this season, from small to significant. Some teams wanted to clear up money, some teams wanted to continue rebuilding, while others took bold steps in ensuring present and future success on the court.
But in our society of instant gratification and unceasing competition, we almost have an unquenchable thirst for deciding winners and losers.
One year ago, the Hornets bought power forward Gustavo Ayon out of his Fuenlabrada (ACB) contract and brought him to New Orleans several days before their unlocked season tipped off.
Ayon started 24 games as a 26-year-old rookie and was shipped to Orlando in a sign-and-trade for Ryan Anderson this summer. That’s fairly incredible value for someone New Orleans plucked from a small Spanish club only 12 games into its ACB season.
So will Ayon’s leap become the archetype for signing post-draft eligible prospects abroad? Almost certainly not. Or at least not exactly.
In today’s column I am going to take a look at how some of the most interesting camp battles are turning out. It is very early but it’s worth looking at the impressions of people who are watching teams closely, in order to get a sense of who is gaining and who might be losing ground. If you have an early draft (and I’ve already had one and have another coming up on Friday) then it’s well worth passing on some players who don’t have a safe job and who aren’t impressing early.
There are always lots of good reasons for not picking a guy. This is one of the lessons of many years of drafting that you should take on; a wart can turn into an infection pretty quickly. While it’s true that a lot of fantasy work is old-fashioned prospecting (a lot of spadework and sluicing, hoping to turn up one nugget) you need to make sure you’re looking in the right areas. There’s no shame in passing on one opportunity in the hope of finding a better one somewhere else.
Marcus Thompson II of the Contra Costa Times is reporting that Harrison Barnes will be part of the regular rotation and remains in the hunt for a starting spot. Thompson reports that Barnes will start tonight, and it’s all part of a desire by Marc Jackson to see how he works with the starters.
This is something you’ll see a lot of during preseason, and something you should be aware of if you’re not used to following preseason games. Players will be shifted up and down the lineup a lot, and it’s not because they are in the doghouse or necessarily even being rewarded; coaches want to see how various players perform together as units.
Barnes, obviously, is a talent. He is up against Brandon Rush at the moment; while Rush improved by miles last season and may have the inside track early as a more experienced player more likely to provide presence on an iffy defensive club, it’s clear that the Warriors view Barnes as an immediate competitor for his minutes.
Not surprisingly, Jacque Vaughn is trying to keep order amidst roster chaos in Orlando. The Associated Press is reporting that amidst injuries, though, E’Twaun Moore made a strong and impressive showing in the preseason contest against the Hornets. Moore, not surprisingly, didn’t get much of a run last year with the Celts and he didn’t play well when he did, struggling to run the offense although that can be hard to do in garbage time. Learning to play the point at the NBA level is tough; Moore was a two-guard at Purdue. If he sticks, though, and if he can learn as fast as a 16/7 game indicates he might, there isn’t any reason he can’t take more time from Jameer Nelson. Nelson is 30 (hard to believe) and there’s mileage on him, as a little man in a big man’s game.
Similarly to the Golden State situation mentioned above, according to the AP Vaughn is assessing all the combinations of starters and so expects his big-man rotation to appear in flux through the preseason. I think Gustavo Ayon is worth keeping an eye on there, by the way. Ayon was very effective for the Hornets last season, passes very well for a guy his size, hits his shots and knows his game.
If you’re thinking of drafting John Wall (or might already have him) you will no doubt be looking for an early-season replacement while Wall rests and rehabs the stress injury to his knee. One potential solution, especially in a deep-league situation, is to grab his replacement in D.C.
Michael Lee of the Washington Post reports that the early indications are that the replacement may be Shelvin Mack, the former Butler Bulldog who backed Wall up for the most part last season, but it may also be A.J. Price or veteran free agent Jannero Pargo.
I like Mack, who shot poorly but not embarrassingly last year but was otherwise competent, and have always been a skeptic of Pargo, who in my view won’t be as good a defender as Mack is (he lacks the size and strength). But a team like the Wizards may decide they want the veteran presence while Wall recuperates, and so both might get forced into some sort of jobshare. If that’s the case, then Mack doesn’t seem like a useful add, and it’s enough reason to be skeptical of the better player for now.
In my view, the most exciting early-season roster battle is shaping up in Boston, where as Scott Souza of the Metrowest Daily News reports, Jared Sullinger has been impressing everyone in training camp and has likely carved himself a roster spot already. The thing with Sullinger is not only that he seems likely to impact the rotation, he may be working himself into major minutes, having hit the ground running and impressing Rajon Rondo as “the smartest rookie we’ve had”.
Sullinger’s competition for minutes seems most likely to be Brandon Bass, who I didn’t think settled too well in Boston last season. Sullinger offers a bit of extra size at the power forward spot, something that might well be coveted as the Celtics try to ease the 82-game pounding that Kevin Garnett will take, and also has considerably more offensive rebounding ability.
Why is that key? Boston finished last in the NBA in offensive rebounds by a country mile last season. It’s an area of extreme weakness that they will be looking to shore up. Not only does Sullinger have the talent and skill as well as the body to be a good offensive rebounder, he obviously relishes it as a look at the last two years’ Ohio State games will tell you.
Whisper it softly… but I think this guy should (might not, but should) become a starter from day one.
Sheridan Hoops readers can face off against me, Kent, and hundreds of other readers and fantasy players, at our partner site FanDuel on Hallowe’en, October 31st. I have registered and selected a lineup (featuring Kobe, Nash, Andrew Bynum, and the majestic power of Landry Fields) although I likely will be changing it obsessively 400 times between now and then. Sometimes, you just can’t wait for the season to begin.
FanDuel is worth a spin even if you don’t like to play for money. I am going to be trying some weekly leagues once the season begins, and I will update you on how those go.
Thanks to the United States Navy for the photo of Harrison Barnes, and for much else besides.
GSW @ LAL: Way past my bedtime, the Warriors poured it on in the second half to trounce the Lakers. Festus Ezeli got the starting C assignment for Andrew Bogut, who is being brought along slowly. The Nigerian, by way of Vanderbilt, played 22:25 and while he didn’t fill the stat sheet, appears to be ahead of Jeremy Tyler (13:17) and Andris Biedrins (11:24) in the pecking order.
Round 1 in the SF “battle” went as expected. Brandon Rush started, but Harrison Barnes played more minutes off the bench and scored more points. Apparent third-stringer Richard Jefferson had 9 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST and a BLK in less than 16 minutes.
The Lakers side of the box score should be completely ignored. They shared minutes among 19 players, none of them Dwight Howard, and they will be ready when the regular-season bell rings, not before.
ORL @ NOH: In Mexico City, over 18,000 watched a lackluster contest. The Hornets won, but it wasn’t pretty. We’ll be reminding you all month not to overreact to “trends,” but Ryan Anderson came off the bench and shot 1-8 on 3PT attempts. Starting C Robin Lopez was brutal — turnovers, fouls and a -22 are all you can see beside his name. Big Solomon Alabi may get preseason minutes but Jason Smith could prove the best of the three to own.
With Eric Gordon sidelined, Austin Rivers got plenty of run at SG. Anthony Davis played well enough in his pro debut, and drew raves from our Jeff Nichols in a comment on yesterdays Spin, but the line that pops out came from Brian Roberts. The undrafted free agent, who impressed in the summer league, had 17 points in 27 minutes and could be the backup PG until Gordon returns. A new name for very deep leaguers to know.
Gustavo Ayon was an obvious start at C for the Magic in his home country and played very well. Without injured Arron Afflalo (hamstring) and Al Harrington (knee), E’Twaun Moore looked good off the bench, leading his team in minutes and points.
MIA @ ATL: Like the Lakers, Miami is confident and unhurried. Dwyane Wade, Mario Chalmers and Udonis Haslem didn’t play for the Heat, who went with a starting backcourt of Norris Cole and Mike Miller. Not surprisingly, they lost, but super-sixth-man Ray Allen looked good. The Hawks went small — Zaza Pachulia (groin) didn’t play — and Kyle Korver started at SF. Atlanta also brought Louis Williams off the bench behind nominal starter DeShawn Stevenson, an interesting development if that persists. My esteemed Spin colleagues disagree, but I actually like Sweet Lou better in fantasy when he doesn’t start.
WAS @ CHA: Interesting how a stress fracture in the leg of John Wall benefits a SG, not a PG. A.J. Price started at the point, with Shelvin Mack running the second unit. Jannero Pargo (DNP, abdominal injury) may further cloud that picture. But it was rookie SG Bradley Beal (18 PTS in 26:50) and new Wizard Martell Webster (18 in 25:04) who did the most. Kevin Seraphin started at C because Nene and Emeka Okafor didn’t play.
Against that depleted lineup, at full “strength” and at home, the Bobcats looked pretty good. In particular, Byron Mullens drained three triples, an interesting addition to the game of anyone with PF-C eligibility, and the second unit backcourt of Ramon Sessions (14) and Ben Gordon (16) could have some fantasy value. In his pro debut, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (12 PTS, 6 REB, 3 STL in 26:42) looked like he belongs.
UTA @ GSW: Back-to-back games at this stage seems unfair. The Warriors played well in L.A. but may not have the legs or wind yet to do it again 24 hours later. The Jazz have a new PG in Mo Williams and a plethora of PF. Offseason rumors had Derrick Favors taking over from Paul Millsap; they could play Millsap at the 3 and go huge, but can he guard SF?
Stephen Curry didn’t see the floor last night, but Mark Jackson had already said he wouldn’t play both nights, so he’s likely to appear for the home fans this evening.
Marcus Camby has a left calf injury that may keep him out ten days. His role is clear when healthy — brief stints behind Tyson Chandler — but the Knicks have other veteran bigs. It might be an “avoid them all” fantasy scenario.
Royce White, the promising Rockets rookie, hates to fly and was late reporting to camp. His representatives, the team and the league are working on a deal to let him travel by bus to as many road games as possible.
“What the Rockets are doing is astronomically appreciated by me and should be by the mental health community,” says the former Iowa State star. This story touches me on a personal level and makes me a huge fan of the young man; just not sure I’d draft him.
Jonas Valanciunas will not make an immediate preseason splash. The 7-foot Lithuanian is recovering from a calf strain and limited to non-contact drills. There was also a note that Aaron Gray may start at C for the Raptors with the rookie coming off the bench. Fear not, fellow JV owners; that’s the best possible news. He won’t foul as often against other backups, and will put up better offensive numbers.
His countryman Donatas Motiejunas has been slowed with an infection and is slightly behind the other Rockets in conditioning. The rookie has a better offensive game than Omer Asik and I’m predicting a timeshare. He is a very sneaky late-round flier.
Baseball is harder than hoops. There, I’ve said it. My free team in yesterday’s MLB Salary Cap league finished fourth of 10. Got a solid performance from my SP Wainwright, though his bullpen blew the W. In basketball, your man’s replacement can’t possibly affect his stats and there’s no one position that is nearly as important.
Also, in hoops a guy who is an established “double-double” player (either PTS-REB or PTS-AST) tends to be around those numbers every night. He might go 16-6, or 24-12, but he won’t put up a zero, barring injury or ejection. In hardball, even the greatest hitter routinely goes 0-4 at the plate. I had Curtis Granderson in my lineup against a relatively easy RH pitcher, dreaming of a two-homer game. No such luck; a walk and three outs earned me 0.25 points.
Meanwhile, the winner of that league used Ryan Hanigan of the Reds as his catcher, on the road in a pitcher’s park. His two hits and 3 RBI produced 5.5 valuable fantasy points. I’m not saying “it’s all luck,” the cry of losers everywhere. I’m saying that in a daily fantasy league, you need to make informed decisions and it helps if the ball (whatever size and shape) bounces your way.
We will try again today. It’s a 2-day MLB league, spanning Monday and Tuesday games. I’m going with Andy Pettitte ($7,600) as my SP, but that was a tossup with Jordan Zimmermann ($7,800). Either leaves a little over $27,000 from the salary cap to fill eight hitting slots. The best hitters cost $4,000 or more, and it’s difficult to find bargains under $3,000 — especially with only four games to choose from. I’m banking on Prince Fielder ($3,800) to break out against a pitcher returning from injury. That means “compromises” at other positions.
It’s simple and totally free to join FanDuel and you can start with a free baseball or football league. Basketball begins October 30; we’ll be playing every day on a $100 weekly bankroll.
Sunday is a good time to catch up on items of interest in the world of fantasy hoops. As a nod to Mike D’Antoni, one of fantasy’s greatest coaches, we’re calling this Seven Topics or Less.
There’s even homework. Be sure to study yesterday’s excellent advice on strategy by Jeff Nichols. Over the next few weeks, readers will learn exactly how to take advantage of loopholes in common formats, categories and rules. There will be a test — in your draft room.
Magical FrontcourtAccording to John Denton, who covers the team for NBA.com, Glen Davis “figures to be” the starting PF, which clears up one thing. Big Baby and Gustavo Ayon are in the wrong positions on my tiers lists. It’s OK, because they are both PF-C for our purposes.
Ayon is presumably battling Nikola Vucevic for a starting role at C and both can be owned. Because Al Harrington (knee) will not be available in training camp, rookie Andrew Nicholson will have an opportunity to make an impression. A 4-year starter at St. Bonaventure, the 6’9″ Canadian is a few years older than many others making their NBA debuts. There’s a decent possibility that Orlando will be looking to trade veterans and go with a full youth movement, making Nicholson a deep sleeper.
I’d been called out by a reader for ranking Channing Frye at least one tier too low. Even before we learned about his enlarged heart, I wasn’t sure he would play as much this season, with Luis Scola starting and Markieff Morris developing. Perhaps I’m now rating Jermaine O’Neal too high. The doctors in Dusseldorf treated his knees and J.O. feels great. He’s gone from third string center, left off our original Depth Chart, to regular minutes and deserves consideration in deep leagues.
Nobody knows exactly when Ricky Rubio will return to the court. Reportedly healing well after knee surgery, he’s been mentioned as a possible Christmas present to Wolves fans. That leaves Luke Ridnour as the temporary starter at PG, and in H2H leagues he can provide eight or nine good weeks for a minimal draft-day investment. Even after Rubio returns, Ridnour isn’t the worst backup to own.
It’s more confusing at SG, where Brandon Roy is pain-free (so far) in his comeback attempt. One of the ultimate risk-reward picks, he could be a tremendous bargain or completely disappoint. An overlooked newcomer in Minnesota is Alexey Shved, who was very impressive in the Olympic tournament. The young Russian is my pick to back up at both guard spots, and if Roy’s minutes are limited (which seems logical) Shved could play 25 minutes a game.
What does this mean for J.J. Barea? Last April, he became the starting PG by default, averaging 16 PTS and 9.3 AST as a hot FA pickup. However, Barea is six inches shorter than Shved and not as creative. Especially if Roy is able to play well, J.J. might see backup minutes until Rubio returns, then become irrelevant.
Think of this note as comic relief, illustrating why you shouldn’t believe everything you read in preseason. An upbeat announcement — promoting a free event to Cavs fans — says Tyler Zeller “will compete for the starting center spot.” That’s news to Anderson Varejao. Don’t bump Zeller up your cheat sheets based on this type of non-information.
O.J. Mayo is getting the full star treatment from coach Rick Carlisle and owner Mark Cuban. He’s been “guaranteed” a starting job, worked out with new backcourt partner Darren Collison in L.A. over the summer and has been in Dallas for weeks, getting to know Dirk Nowitzki better on the practice court.
Cuban is also excited about Rodrigue Beaubois, who might see more consistent minutes this year as Mayo’s backup. “He’s been working out; he’s bigger, he’s stronger. He’s going to have a chance to compete, just like everybody.”
Such pronouncements are commonplace at this time of year, and fantasy owners must read between the lines before drawing conclusions. I’m targeting Mayo this year and will consider Roddy Buckets in deep leagues. If he gets enough of the minutes that used to go to Jason Terry, Beaubois will be exciting.
Tomorrow, the Atlantic leads off a six-day series that examines one division at a time, to identify the NBA teams that are most fantasy-friendly. It’s not an attempt to pick division winners; fantasy owners don’t care about the standings. We’re looking at each team’s coach, style of play, pace, scoring and rotation. You’ll see why Nuggets players are so great to own, and how the Spurs, a tremendous organization on the court, can be very frustrating in your fantasy league.
In my Fantasy Resources piece on Friday, one glaring omission was Real GM, an excellent source of information. The site is easy to navigate, legible and accurate. Take a look if you haven’t already.
Be sure to follow @SheridanFantasy on Twitter to be alerted of new content that will help you prepare to draft.
