StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Miami’s adjustments and how Golden State has the pieces to shock the Spurs

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Moving past the obvious in Miami’s Game 2 triumph

Carlos BoozerHow do you push past the obvious insight about Miami’s all-around 115-78 beatdown of Chicago in Wednesday night’s Game 2? What can you say besides the Heat shooting 60 percent to 35.5 percent for the Bulls? Let’s break down the major things that changed on both sides that helped lead to such a different result in Miami’s favor:

Miami’s Big Three was way more efficient in Game 2, perhaps with more determination and urgency in their games. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh scored five more points in Game 2 than they did in Game 1 (28-23) despite taking five fewer shots. LeBron James is going to be the best player in the world every time he plays, but his two All-Star sidekicks will be key against a normally good Chicago defense.

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SH Blog: Amar’e Eyes Game 3 Return; So Does Derrick Rose? Paul George Earns His Stripes

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Nate RobinsonThe second round of the NBA playoffs have kicked off with a bang. And after what was a rather drama-less first round has become  quite the opposite as we watch the final eight contend for the title.

Most notably, the Chicago Bulls shocked the Miami Heat in Game 1 Monday night — on the road no less — and the Indiana Pacers came into Madison Square Garden and punked the Knicks Sunday afternoon. Did you know the Bulls are 9-8 against the Heat in the “Big 3″ era?

They won’t back down, and if Miami doesn’t assert themselves in Game 2, a third trip in as many years to the NBA Finals might not be a sure thing. 

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Perkins: Day After Stunning Loss to Bulls, Heat Unconcerned

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happyhatMIAMI – There’s no worry among the Miami Heat over their 93-86 Game 1 loss to Chicago on Monday.

But on the Day After, there did seem to be some steely resolve from the defending champions to do better in the “effort” areas. Blend that with a healthy mix of “we’ve been here before,” and you have the tone of the chatter that followed the Heat’s practice Tuesday at AmericanAirlines Arena.

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StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Should too much rest be blamed for Miami’s Game One loss?

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LeBron JamesMany will attribute Miami’s 93-86 Game 1 loss to Chicago on Monday to the seven days of rest the Heat had between its first and second round series. Can we blame the loss on Miami being “rusty,” “over-rested,” or given too much time between series, being punished for quickly finishing off the Milwaukee Bucks a week ago?

“There’s no excuses,” said Miami Head Coach Erik Spoelstra, whose team had not played in more than a week. “We’re not making any excuses for time off or anything else.”

To test a lazy analysis I’ll refer to as The Rust Theory, I looked at the average stats put up by LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh when they’ve had at least three days of rest and compare them with not only their Game 1 numbers, but their career stats and splits as well. How was the Big Three impacted by a few extra days off in a Game 1 against a battered and short-handed Bulls team that has had minimal rest between series.

LeBron James Min FG % 3 FG % Points Rebounds Assists FTA
Career Overall 39.7 49 33.7 27.6 7.3 6.9 8.6
Career 3+ 39.2 48.6 28.6 26.9 7.1 7.4 8.3
This Season 39.2 56.5 35 26.6 7.8 8.4 6.2
Game 1 43 47.1 33.3 24 8 7 9

Dwyane WadeThe problem with James is that he’s had one of the best single statistical regular seasons of all time, so any slight dip in that production is magnified. Against a strong Chicago defense, James only had a 24-8-7 line with numbers a shade worse than his overall career numbers and splits when he has three or more days of rest. On a night where the Heat shot under 40 percent from the field and under 30 percent from deep, it’s kind of hard to put the blame on James, even though that’s easy to do. James certainly wasn’t surprised by the loss.

“I’m not stunned,” James said. “This is what the playoffs is all about. We’re going against a really good team.”

It would have also helped if James got some support from some of his teammates. In addition to poor shooting games from Shane Battier, Ray Allen and Mike Miller, who combined to go 6-for-19 from the floor, Wade and Bosh didn’t help as much as they should have in order for Miami to beat a determined Chicago squad.

Dwyane Wade Min FG % 3 FG % Points Rebounds Assists FTA
Career Overall 36.9 48.9 28.9 24.7 5.1 6.1 8.6
Career 3+ 36.2 49.3 21.4 24.8 5.1 5.5 9.2
This Season 35.7 46.1 0 19.9 5.4 4.1 7.3
Game 1 33 43.8 0 14 2 4 0

Wade was severely limited on both side of the ball on Monday compared to his stats and splits across the board, including his numbers this season on long rest. Chicago is going to be in this series to win it if they out-rebound Miami by 14, as it did on Monday. Wade needs to contribute more in all facets, especially if and when the Bulls get Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich. Bosh is undoubtedly also to blame for the Game 1 defeat:

Chris Bosh Min FG % Points Rebounds Blocks FTA
Career Overall 36.4 49.6 19.5 8.9 1.1 6.7
Career 3+ 37.3 50.9 21.1 9.4 1.2 7.4
This Season 33.9 50.6 15 10.3 0.6 4.6
Game 1 28 30 9 6 2 2

Chris_Bosh_cropBosh is going to need to do a lot more inside against Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer. Down low is where Chicago’s only clear advantage lies in this series. If Bosh plays even with the Bulls’ bigs, Miami should have no trouble winning this series. Maybe Bosh was over-rested? More likely, he was just outmuscled by a team more determined to win. Jimmy Butler had 14 rebounds for Chicago on Monday. Joakim Noah had 11 rebounds, Carlos Boozer had seven and Marco Belinelli had seven. Bosh ended up with a sorry six, the sixth highest total among the 11 players who logged at least 25 minutes in Game One. Ray Allen and Mario Chalmers had more free throw attempts. If Bosh plays this way, Miami isn’t going to win. It’s as simple as that.

So to sum up the story pretty quickly, long rest isn’t to blame for the Heat’s loss. The team needs production out of its players not named LeBron James. Wade and Bosh can’t afford to coast against a confident team that has proven both physically and mentally tough. Bosh needs to limit Chicago on the glass, or Miami’s certain championship season will end in a shocking upset loss.

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

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SH Blog: Rose addresses Steve Kerr’s commentary on playing status, Nets contact Phil Jackson for coaching job

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Derrick RoseCan Derrick Rose still come back this season to help the Chicago Bulls against the Miami Heat in the Conference semifinals?

Much has been made of why he – despite being cleared to play by doctors some time ago – has still been unavailable to play for the team. Perhaps there wouldn’t have been so much scrutiny on the point guard, who is still in the process of recovering from the torn ACL he suffered in last season’s playoffs, had he and the team simply announced that he’d miss the remainder of the season. That would have ended all the curiosity and criticism. If he did comeback? Great. Now he would be a hero for doing so. Case in point: David Lee of the Golden State Warriors was expected to miss the remainder of the season after tearing his hip flexor, but made a sudden appearance in Game 6 of the first round and was recognized as an inspiration. Either way, Rose is not ready to say he is done just yet, from Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today:

Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose has his reason why he won’t just say he’s not playing this season.

It’s because Rose, deep down, still thinks he could return sometime during the playoffs even though he hasn’t played since he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee against the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 1 of last season’s first-round playoff series.

He doesn’t want to rule anything in or out, even though the Bulls plan on not having Rose available this season.

“Still in the air. I might have a chance,” Rose said Monday morning the Bulls shootaround, about nine hours before Game 1 of Chicago’s Eastern Conference semifinals series against the Miami Heat.

None of us really understand what exactly Rose is going through with the knee and why he still doesn’t feel confident enough to try to play on it. With key players on his team ailing with an assortment of injuries, they certainly could use anything they can get from Rose. However, no one on his team is necessarily pressuring him to do so. He addressed this particular topic, along with Steve Kerr’s call-out of the situation on national TV:

“There’s no pressure at all. I haven’t had any pressure from anyone – not in the organization, not from my teammates,” he said. “They know I’m put everything I have into trying to come back as fast as possible. But just trying to be smart with the whole situation and just take my time.

“It’s definitely hard. I know this will be over with pretty soon. Who knows when it’s going to stop? I can’t get down on myself.”

TNT analyst and former Bulls guard Steve Kerr recently said, “If Derrick is OK and there’s no threat to further injury, I think he’s got to play. … Maybe he owes it to his teammates.”

Rose answered Kerr’s statement.

“Everybody has their own opinion,” he said. “The key words that he said were, ‘If I’m ready.’ (Right now) I’m not ready. I’m just trying to take my time and really, really be smart.”

Rose will not put a percentage on his physical or mental health.

“I don’t want to say no percentage,” Rose said. “I wish I knew, but I know I’m feeling pretty good.”

With the Bulls shocking the world with a victory in Game 1 over the Heat on the road, they certainly could use Rose to help complete what would be an incredible upset. Unless Rose makes the decision to give it a go, however, this may be a pointless situation to continue to wonder about. Oh, and make sure you never mention it to Joakim Noah, because he just might get upset with you. Check out what he said, from KSBW:

“Derrick’s a brother,” Noah said. “And to see him go through this is tough, but at the end of the day it’s really funny how quick people are to judge. But people don’t know what it’s like to lead a team, especially after you tore your ACL. “If you tore your ACL and you have to be the starting point guard and have the expectations that Derrick has, then maybe you can judge, but everybody who hasn’t been in that situation before should really shut up because I feel like it’s just so unfair to him and to this team. We’re fighting, and everybody’s going to just s— on somebody who’s been giving so much to this organization. It’s crazy to me.”

Onto other news from around the league: 

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