Anthony Davis Can’t Carry Hornets; Love Update

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Our 24/7 coverage of Kevin Love’s broken hand began with a Wednesday tweet by Jeff Nichols, continued through my update Thursday morning, led off Bruce Wrigley’s column on auction drafting yesterday and has since returned to Twitter.

My feeling is, Love will be fine, and if everyone else in your league overreacts to this unfortunate news, you should take advantage. Bruce cautions that an injury to the shooting hand can have lasting effects, so even if he returns sooner than the six-week estimate, don’t expect a 30-20 game right away. Asked exactly where he would now draft Love, Jeff says 10-12 in a keeper Roto league, 12-15 in a keeper H2H format, and slightly lower in redraft leagues: Roto 15-20, H2H 20-25. We now return you to our regular programming.

October 18 Games

NOH @ ATL: OK, it’s officially a trend. Devin Harris started again at SG and that may continue. The Hawks went very small, with DeShawn Stevenson at SF. Al Horford had his double-double early in the third quarter as the Hawks began the second half on a 21-1 run, and Josh Smith was outstanding. The only negative was Jeff Teague leaving early with an ankle injury; we don’t know yet how severe. Anthony Morrow (15 points) got plenty of run as Kyle Korver had the night off.

The Hornets would have lost by more than 30 if not for Anthony Davis. Take away the rookie’s 8-11 for 19 points, and they shot a sizzling 25.4% as a team. Ryan Anderson was 1-8 and in foul trouble; Greivis Vasquez is not playing as well as he did last spring and if Eric Gordon (knee) doesn’t return, rookie Austin Rivers may be overmatched as a starting SG in this league.

DET @ MIA: Here I was expecting the Heat to take it easy, or be out of sync, after that very long road trip to China, and with two more weeks to crank it up. Instead, Dwyane Wade was unstoppable — 21 PTS and 5 AST in 22:33 — and they were up 27 by halftime. Mario Chalmers (hamstring) is coming along slowly, so Norris Cole got another start at PG, but he won’t be a fantasy factor.

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SH Blog: Lakers may look to acquire LeBron in 2014, Love broke hand doing knuckle pushups

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News has been floating around on Thursday about the possibility of the Lakers looking to acquire the talents of LeBron James when the best basketball player on the planet becomes eligible to hit the market again in 2014. As ridiculous as that sounds right now, it apparently is in the realm of possibility if James chose to test free agency again. Having won a championship with the Heat in just two seasons, though, the chances of him leaving Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh appears to be unlikely. Still, anything can happen in the span of two seasons, and it’s interesting to know that such plans are already taking shape behind closed doors for the Lakers.

See why going after James makes sense for the Lakers, how Kevin Love broke his hand and much more from Thursday below:

  • Are the Lakers aiming to acquire LeBron James in 2014 when he can become a free agent? That’s what many executives appear to believe, according to Brian Windhorst of ESPN: “In the wake of the Howard trade, much as been made of the massive luxury-tax bill the Lakers are facing next season if they’re able to re-sign the big man. ESPN.com salary cap expert Larry Coon has estimated the Lakers could be on the hook for as much as $85 million just in taxes in 2013-14. But look a little further, to that 2014-15 season, and you’ll see something else: The Lakers’ projected payroll is almost completely clear. Only Nash is signed for that season, at $9.7 million, though the Lakers will also be paying about $20 million to Howard if they can re-sign him this coming summer… Opposing teams that are making their own long-range free agency plans think they see the Lakers’ plan coming into focus. As it stands, L.A. will have enough cap space to add a superstar like James. ”It’s not a mistake that all those deals end the same year Kobe’s does. They have probably been planning for their next phase for a while,” said one general manager. “The Busses and [Lakers GM] Mitch [Kupchak] are always thinking about the next big deal.”
Spoelstra says LeBron continues to expand his post game and "it’ll be nice to go after that Defensive Player of the Year too."
October 18, 2012 4:13 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite
@tomhaberstroh
Tom Haberstroh
  • Learn about the impact of mission court grip from OptoSource here. Brandon Jennings explained his personal experience with court grip here: “After 3 months of testing over 24 subjects, the OptoSource™ study showed an average of 24% increase in quickness when going in and out of cuts for players at all levels when using Court Grip™ – and in some cases higher. It also showed quantifiable improvements in balance and stability on change of direction movements on players who used the traction enhancing technology. Side-by-side analysis of Brandon Jennings’s signature move, the step back jump shot, with and without Court Grip™, also revealed a significant decrease in average court contact time when using the product. “I used Court Grip all of last year, and I could feel the difference in my game, but actually seeing the data from the study, the visible improvements that Court Grip made to my form, stability and performance was really amazing,” said Milwaukee Bucks star, Brandon Jennings.”

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Fantasy: Auction Drafting Lessons

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I’ll do a quick hit on the latest fantasy blockbuster before talking about auction drafts today, as promised.

Love the One You’re With

The big news in fantasy in the last 24 hours is Kevin Love‘s injury. Kent broke down exactly what it means in this morning’s Fantasy Spin but I wanted to add a few words more of caution. A broken hand or a wrist injury can cause players mechanical problems that linger far longer than the expected time for healing. The shooting motion in particular is delicate; while this is less of a problem for Love (who scores so much around the basket) than it would be for a jumpshooter, it’s still a concern, and he still needs to make his free throws. It’s doubtful that Love will suffer a permanent impairment to his play, he may have more trouble scoring than you’d expect when he does return. Longterm problems are still possible: these injuries can result in deformity, strength or other issues, and someone who rebounds as lustily as Love does works his hands very hard.

Nikola Pekovic, TimberwolvesI heartily endorse Kent’s advocacy of Nikola Pekovic as gaining value from Love’s misfortune. Not only will Pekovic grab more minutes as a result of Love not playing, he’ll also grab more rebounds when he does play. Love is a maniac on the defensive boards and reduces rebounding opportunities for his teammates when he’s out there. Pekovic, though, has the ability to board with the best: he led the NBA last season in percentage of rebounds snagged at the offensive end, but he deferred extensively to Love on the defensive end when both were on the floor. I think he can translate those skills (which aren’t identical, but are obviously quite similar) from the glory end of the floor to the business end of it.

Finally, remember… if you’re in any sort of league that has set pre-ranks and is drafting soon, take Love off the list or demote him far enough. You never do know what’s going to happen that you can’t be there. I’m sure there were a lot of fantasy players last night who were autodrafted Kevin Love because they were called away from the computer!

Do I Hear…

Mostly what I wanted to do today is talk about auction drafting, since I had an auction draft late last week where I dealt with some of the issues that Jeff talked about on Saturday in Part 5 of his Fantasy Basketball Primer. If you’re interested in auction drafting, try reading Jeff’s piece before coming back here.

A couple of background notes. I was underprepared but felt I was doing OK, then had an interesting problem that I had to put behind me the rest of the way. Let’s look at what I ended up with, in a 12-team league with ten starters per team:

11 Russell Westbrook $64
26 Andrew Bogut $14
35 Ty Lawson $42
45 Al Horford $29
54 Monta Ellis $19
62 Ray Allen $5
78 Harrison Barnes $1
108 Luis Scola $2
110 Mo Williams $4
114 Kawhi Leonard $5
115 Lou Williams $12
125 George Hill $2
135 Zaza Pachulia $1

The first number is the nomination order, to give you some idea of how active I was. Budget was $200 for the 13 players, of which 10 can play each day.

I started with two mistakes, but I think I finished well, although there is work left to be done. I don’t think $64 for Westbrook is necessarily a huge misstep. He was rated to exactly that figure on my board; there is a lot of risk there (this is a redraft league) in my mind at that figure. Kevin Love, taken two auctions after Westbrook, was the last of the big-money picks at $67 and from there an inflated market collapsed, with the rest of the top 10 players going in the low fifties. Clearly, a wait to find a frontline star might have netted a profit for me, although I did have the cheapest (although the least attractive) of top 5 players. I suppose the lesson to take home is that the price point between Westbrook and the rest is potentially large.

Following that, I had my first run-in with the auction software. Bidding on Bogut was creeping up and I was trying to move the auction along, so I reached for the “Bid” button. Unfortunately, another owner had taken the bid from about $5 to $13. So instead of a $6 bid or so, I was suddenly committed at $14. (Bogut wasn’t worth that, I thought he was $8 at discount, were I would have stopped bidding, or $10 in value).

Two players in, and I felt I was 0-for-2. In the end, because Love will be hurt, Westbrook might not have been a terrible buy… prices for stars tend, as Jeff indicates, to run in tiers.

From there, I felt better. Jeff talked about not getting caught up with “inflation” concepts in his piece. I think that’s generally good advice. I do, however, watch the pricing early on and try to wait things out where prices are too high. I did think that prices were trending high and tried to force myself to wait, but with all the attractive players being nominated heavily from the beginning, I was making more than just “enforcing” bids during much of this time. Like Jeff suggests, I always try to enforce prices to keep my fellow owners honest.

A particularly important part of enforcing prices is that it prevents any of your competitors from running away with a monster draft. I was pleased with this; I think a couple of the owners will probably have had better drafts than I did, but no one ran away with it on draft day.

I ended up with two good midlevel guys at prices I projected as good bargains, including Al Horford but particularly Monta Ellis. I left money over for Lou Williams as well, which turned out to be a good idea because he was the dreaded last guy of a tier. The $12 was a slight overspend but it did left others with worse options. I did employ the $2 endgame as well, a move I am very fond of and am happy to see Jeff approve of, and managed to get George Hill.

Finally, you’ll note how PG-heavy this draft is. I am happy with that; there are plenty of utility slots in this league where I can employ these players (it is a head-to-head format) until trade opportunities come around. Point guard is a deep fantasy spot and I would rather have the better players late on in a draft, rather than the less good players where positions are scarce. At any rate daily lineups with a utility spot or two allow you to play almost any combination of players together while you let your roster shake out. I think being point guard-rich will help me deal for a better quality of forwards than I could have bid on.

All in all, this draft was a reminder to sharpen my game somewhat. I did averagely overall, but will be better in my next auction draft. Good luck with your drafts. Finally, don’t neglect the opportunity to take part in the $1,000 Sheridan Hoops Fantasy Contest at FanDuel on October 31st. My team is in (subject to a whole lot of change) and I hope to see you there.

Thanks to Keith Allison for the photo of Nikola Pekovic

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Diminished expectations for Love and Lin; Not so for Knicks

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At the top of our 2012-13 NBA wish list is the cessation of the overuse of the word “Linsanity.”

We had enough of that last year, IMHO, and Lin should drop off the national radar once the fallout from his GQ cover article begins to subside. He had a nice game last night against the Grizzlies with 12 assists and five steals, but he also missed three of four free throw attempts.

He is playing on a team that has one proven NBA go-to guy, Kevin Martin, who is on an expiring contract and has been in Houston so long that he was supposed to be a part of the renaissance when Yao Ming returned from his foot injury — which never happened.

So we won’t be hearing much more about the Harvard alum once he season starts, because his team is going to stink. Nothing personal, but good riddance to Linsanity.

Wednesday brought the news that Kevin Love is going to miss 6-8 weeks with a fractured hand, and that is obviously not a good thing for the Timberwolves. When they had Ricky Rubio healthy last year they were in the playoff hunt and were one of the most exciting teams in the NBA to watch. After Rubio got hurt, they plummeted.

So the question now is what kind of a team can the Timberwolves be until they get their two best players back? And I think it is entirely possible they can be a .500 team through Christmas, when they should have Rubio back.

Why?

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Love Hurts: T-Wolves’ Star Injured

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If you already own Kevin Love, his fractured right hand is a bad break indeed. If someone else owns him, you might send a friendly note of sympathy and a trade suggestion. If your league hasn’t drafted yet, this is a possible opportunity.

He’s certain to fall, from third or fourth overall to much later in the first round, if not lower. In keeper leagues, Love’s value hasn’t changed. Target him.

In redraft leagues, you know he’s going to miss a fifth of the season, a sixth if he’s a fast healer. That’s not so bad in Roto, but in H2H the regular season is just 20 weeks long. Having your first pick on the bench for the first quarter of the season makes it more difficult to make the playoffs. As usual, much depends on your settings. With plenty of bench spots in a 12-team league, you can weather the storm better than in a short-bench 20-team league.

Any debate about Love vs. Chris Paul as third overall pick is over. Fourth is suddenly an uncomfortable draft spot. Given the large gap between CP3 and Russell Westbrook in AST, STL and TO, and the other great PG options, a case can be made for Al Jefferson, who is certainly no Love. Picking late in the first round might be better than the middle this year.

Timberwolves whose value increases for the first few weeks of the season include Derrick Williams, Andrei Kirilenko and Nikola Pekovic. Don’t overdraft Williams just because he goes from backup to probable starter; as @JerryZgoda of the Star-Tribune told us in a Twitter conversation yesterday, that’s not even guaranteed. Bumping the versatile AK-47 and Pek up a notch makes more sense.

October 17 Games

WAS @ TOR: It was the first time Kyle Lowry (14 PTS, 6 AST, 3 STL) ran his new team. Rookie SG Terrence Ross (knee) didn’t play; DeMar DeRozan is safe as the starter for a while. One reason not to abandon Jose Calderon (12 PTS, 8 AST) in fantasy leagues is his ability to play off the ball. Jonas Valanciunas (8 PTS, 8 REB, 3 BLK) is bigger than Amir Johnson, stronger than Ed Davis, faster than Aaron Gray and almost as skilled as Andrea Bargnani. Last night Johnson and Davis played together on the second unit and Amir (13 PTS) knocked down some open looks, while Gray didn’t appear.

Trevor Booker returned to add some much-needed frontcourt depth to the injury-riddled Wizards. It’s possible that A.J. Price edged ahead in the battle to replace John Wall at PG for the first month, with 8 points and 8 assists in 22 minutes. Jannero Pargo had 10 points in 21 minutes,  with no assists and two turnovers, while Shelvin Mack got less than 5:00 and missed both his shots. Once again, Martell Webster started at SF and Trevor Ariza came off the bench. That could continue into the regular season.

CLE @ PHI: It’s clear that Kyrie Irving (23 PTS) is ready and my man Tristan Thompson (10 PTS, 10 REB) is fitting in well alongside Anderson Varejao (10 PTS, 6 REB) but the Cavaliers still have a decision to make with Dion Waiters. The rookie SG was 2-9 from the floor, missing all five 3-point attempts. Daniel Gibson got hot off the bench (18 PTS in 21 minutes) to keep himself in the mix, and though Alonzo Gee was quiet in just 14:37 last night, he can also start at a wing spot.

The 76ers shook up the starting five because Jason Richardson had the night off. Evan Turner slid over to SG and Dorell Wright (17 PTS) played 28:00 at SF. Nick Young (19) stayed red hot and rookie PG Maalik Wayns — who was born in Philly and attended Villanova — looked very good off the bench. It’s about time we mentioned Arnett Moultrie. The 6’11” rookie won’t play much early in the season, but is doing enough to suggest he might be a factor in the second half, or sooner if anything happens to Thaddeus Young.

MEM @ HOU: Though the Grizzlies went deep into their bench late, and Wayne Ellington started at SG for a resting Tony Allen, there were no surprises. Unless you count a poor shooting night for Marc Gasol (1-7) and Rudy Gay (4-16) that can be written off to training camp apathy. We’re all waiting for games that matter.

The Rockets have only two “household names” in Jeremy Lin and Kevin Martin. Lin scored just 7 points in 31 minutes, but his line is filled with other goodies: 12 AST (only 2 TO), 5 REB and 4 STL. Kev-Mart is back, after a season he (and his fantasy owners) would like to forget. He shot 8-11 (4-5 from downtown) to lead all scorers with 22. PF Patrick Patterson (17) looks good, but on this night both centers had some foul trouble. Omer Asik (9 PTS, 11 REB in 22:19) and backup Donatas Motiejunas (4 PTS, 4 REB in 11:12) will produce if they can stay on the floor. Carlos Delfino hit three triples off the bench and rookie Terrence Jones (who should add PF to his SF eligibility before long) continues to impress.

PHO @ DAL: Nobody expects Dirk Nowitzki to play one minute in the remaining exhibition games. There are hints that he might not have his knee scoped and could be ready (if not 100%) for the regular season. In his absence, rookie Jae Crowder played great (10 PTS, 6 REB, 5 STL, 3 BLK) and while not the tallest forward, the former Marquette star might contribute more than I thought, sooner than expected.

Three Suns starters were +20 in less than 20 minutes. I know, plus-minus is a “junk stat” and there are many other ways to measure effectiveness more accurately. But it tells you at a glance that Goran Dragic, Luis Scola and Jared Dudley are ready for the season. Rookie Kendall Marshall sat out, allowing Sebastian Telfair 26 minutes as the backup PG.

GSW @ SAC: The Stephen Curry watch continues to go well for his nervous owners; another 19 points in 23 minutes and no health issues. David Lee shot a poor 5-18 but 16 PTS and 14 REB is always a decent fantasy line. Klay Thompson was also sharp. However, the two rookies who started were very quiet. Harrison Barnes is locked in a timeshare with Brandon Rush at SF and neither has stepped up to claim the job. Center Festus Ezeli picked up five fouls in 10 minutes, so veteran Carl Landry played 37 minutes off the bench. That pattern may continue until Andrew Bogut (fractured ankle) is healthy enough to play.

The Kings laid an egg in front of their home fans, shooting 33.3% as a team. DeMarcus Cousins (2-10) and Tyreke Evans (3-13) were the worst offenders and nobody stood out in a positive way. OK, if you’re in a crazy-deep league, Chuck Hayes looked a little more like his old self, with a couple of BLK and AST as the undersized backup C.

DEN @ POR: A dull effort by the high-flying Nuggets is easy to explain. Ty Lawson got the night off, and Andre Miller was rusty. As a team, Denver went 2-20 from 3-point range. Wilson Chandler saw his first action of the preseason, a scoreless 12 minutes. On a positive note, Kosta Koufos started at C and outplayed Timofey Mozgov. Again.

Even without Damian Lillard (foot) the Blazers romped. Nolan Smith (9 PTS, 8 AST, 5 REB) filled in capably at PG and Coby Karl scored 11 points in 21 minutes as the backup. Rookie SF Victor Claver, hampered so far by a sore back, lit it up with 13 points in as many minutes. He could be a better late-round flyer than Luke Babbitt.

UTA @ LAC: Mo Williams is giving a mild groin strain some time, and his replacement Jamaal Tinsley failed to score in 22 minutes. Still, the Jazz lost by only two points. Randy Foye hit four 3-pointers off the bench and Enes Kanter (14 PTS, 9 REB) continues to play the best ball of his young career.

Chris Paul is just getting in shape; he’ll play a lot more minutes when the games count, and backup Eric Bledsoe (11 points in 25 minutes) will play less. As expected, DeAndre Jordan had a tougher time scoring than he did against Miami’s center-less lineup, but 11 PTS and 16 REB is still a great night. Blake Griffin was even better: 5 REB, 5 AST and 5 STL to go with a game-high 23 points. As the Clips wait for Chauncey Billups (Achilles) to be ready, Willie Green starts on a short leash at SG, and Jamal Crawford always comes off the bench firing.

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