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LeBron James and the Miami Heat are now closing in on not their first, not their second, but their third consecutive NBA Finals appearance, where they will be looking for their second ring with “The Big Three.”
But before we can punch Miami’s ticket to the Finals, the Heat still have four games left to
win against an Indiana Pacers team they’ve lost 2 out of 3 against this season.
Good evening and welcome to the 6 O’Clock News …
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Lets get right to it:
NEW YORK — Years ago, back when Kevin Durant was making a name for himself as a prep player in the Washington, D.C. area, Carmelo Anthony probably never thought that one day, he would have a chance to make history against Durant’s team.
Even more so, Anthony probably never thought that a victory over Durant’s team could somehow make the difference between him being viewed as a legitimate player that an NBA team could build a winning culture around.
Yet, here we are.
The Knicks are surging and will ride the club’s 11-game win streak into Oklahoma City on Sunday. A win makes it a cool dozen and legitimizes the Knicks as a team that should be taken seriously come playoff time. It could also legitimize Anthony as being more than the non-winning gunslinger that many in the media hold him out to be.
A loss, though, and the national media will dismiss the streak as merely being born of battering vulnerable competition. The same exact thing will be done to Anthony’s historic scoring performance over the past three games, as well.
Such is the life of ‘Melo.
With March Madness officially behind us and a little over two weeks left in the NBA regular season, the majority of sports gamblers turn their focus back to the NBA.
Attacking the NBA futures market and NBA playoff odds before the regular season ends can be a very profitable way to walk into the playoffs. In this column, we are going to analyze some of the differences between what the futures market looked like a little over a month ago and what the odds are as of April 1st.
Some of the biggest differences you will see in the futures are fewer teams listed and a more balanced gap between the teams and odds across the board. The previous “Eight Pillars Of NBA” piece listed futures on 30 different teams, while the futures market now currently only lists odds for 18 teams. Out of the 18 teams that are currently listed in the chart below, 14 of them had their odds go up since February 28th. Three teams had their odds go down: Miami Heat, Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets; the Indiana Pacers have the exact same odds today as they did a month ago.
The dollar amounts I have listed on the chart give you an idea of how much money you would have lost or gained if you placed a $100 wager on that teams future now versus my last column a little over a month ago:
| Pillar 1 | Heat | 1st Odds are NEWEST | ||
| 1/1.2 & 1.5/1 | ||||
| ($67) | ||||
| Pillar 2 | Thunder | Spurs | ||
| 4.35/1 & 3.5/1 | 6.5/1 & 5.5/1 | |||
| $85 | $10 | |||
| Pillar 3 | Nuggets | Clippers | Pacers | |
| 16/1 & 35/1 | 17.5/1 & 10/1 | 18/1 & 18/1 | ||
| ($190) | $75 | $0 | ||
| Pillar 4 | Lakers | Knicks | Bulls | Grizzlies |
| 23/1 & 25/1 | 28/1 & 18/1 | 35/1 & 23/1 | 40/1 & 27/1 | |
| ($20) | $100 | $120 | $130 | |
| Pillar 5 | Celtics | Nets | ||
| 50/1 & 45/1 | 70/1 & 33/1 | |||
| $50 | $370 | |||
| Pillar 6 | Hawks | Warriors | Rockets | |
| 125/1 & 75/1 | 125/1 & 66/1 | 150/1 & 125/1 | ||
| $500 | $590 | $250 | ||
| Pillar 7 | Bucks | Mavericks | Jazz | |
| 300/1 & 275/1 | 400/1 & 300/1 | 450/1 & 150/1 | ||
| $250 | $1,000 | $3,000 | ||
If you simply take a look at the line changes and compare them to playoff position, you can see the “best bets” at the current moment.
When it comes to ensuring a profit in futures NBA bets, matchups become the biggest aspect during the playoffs. If you can avoid playing teams like the Miami Heat for just one extra round, it can mean one more round of lighter odds and possibly an easier opponent in route to the Finals.
The NBA regular season ends on April 17th, so at the current moment matchups are near impossible to guarantee for the road to the Finals. The two and three seeds in the Eastern Conference are tied, while the 4, 5 and 6 seeds are separated by a game and a half. The most likely matchup at the moment is the Miami Heat against the Milwaukee Bucks as the one versus eight seeds in the first round, that is certainly not a sure thing.
With 2, 3 , 6 and 7 avoiding Miami until the conference finals, it was very difficult for me to leave the Brooklyn Nets off my team of recommended wagers at this price. Originally at 33/1 a month ago and now at 70/1, Brooklyn is currently the number four seed in the east and lined up to play Chicago or Atlanta in the first round of the playoffs. The Nets are just 3-4 straight up and 2-5 against the spread versus the Hawks and Bulls this season.
If Brooklyn can get Joe Johnson healthy over the next two weeks I feel the 70/1 future could definitely be an investment come hopefully the second round of the playoffs against Miami.
When looking at the 8th playoff spot in the Western Conference here is a breakdown of the Utah Jazz, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers:
| Odds | Home/Road Left | Playoff Teams Remaining | Proj. Final | Team Rankings Playoff % | |
| Utah Jazz | 450/1 | 4/3 | DEN, @GDST, OKC, @MEM | 39-36/4-3 | 50.90% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 23/1 | 6/2 | DAL, MEM, @LAC, GDST, SA, HOU | 38-36/5-3 | 43.50% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 400/1 | 4/5 | @LAK, @DEN, DEN, MEM | 36-37/5-4 | 7.10% |
The issue with finding value in any of these three teams fighting for the eight seed is the fact they are 38-81 (.319) against teams .500 and better this season. In my honest opinion, I think the Spurs can be beat. A recent injury to Manu Ginobili, who is out the remainder of the regular season, has put San Antonio in a position where they are only one game up on Oklahoma City for the number one seed in the west.
As much as I want to recommend a small wager on the Mavericks at 400/1 to put a large scare in the Spurs, I am not sure Dallas will be that last team in the playoffs this year. The Jazz are 3 games ahead of the Mavericks in the win column right now with only around eight games left for each team. At 450/1, the Utah Jazz simply represents more value at the current moment than the Lakers and Mavericks. Are the Lakers better equipped to win four games in around a week against the Thunder or Spurs…possibly; but at 23/1 and an upward battle from the ninth spot in the west, it might not be worth the “gamble.”
In the Lakers eight games remaining on their schedule they face six “playoff” teams, with five of them being at the Staples Center.
This may be a good thing for Los Angeles, as they are 5-1 in their last six home games versus “playoff” teams coming in.
Here are a few influential statistics that I believe will come into play come playoff time:
1. Who are the top 6 teams in the NBA (winning percentage) in close-margined road games this season?
| Nets | .778 |
| Warriors | .700 |
| Heat | .636 |
| Spurs | .636 |
| Bucks | .636 |
| Knicks | .636 |
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2. These 5 teams are the best at defending the “runway” (the rim to 9 feet away from the basket; opponent field goal percentage) in the NBA.
| Pacers | 51.20% |
| Thunder | 54.70% |
| Spurs | 54.80% |
| Nuggets | 54.90% |
| Bucks | 55.20% |
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3. Which “playoff” teams are the worst against the spread across the NBA?
| Lakers | 30-43-1 |
| Bucks | 33-40 |
| Bulls | 33-39 |
| Celtics | 33-38-3 |
| Hawks | 35-38-2 |
| Nets | 35-36-3 |
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4. An NBA efficiency formula I put together, which calculates defensive statistics and simple offensive efficiency (((Assists Per Game) – (Turnovers Per Game)) + DEF (Steals, Blocks & Charges Drawn)).
| Bucks | 25.9 |
| Nuggets | 25.8 |
| Spurs | 25.6 |
| Clippers | 25.3 |
| Heat | 24.3 |
| Hawks | 23.6 |
| Jazz | 23.6 |
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Evan Abrams contributes gambling-related articles to SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter, where he goes by @Betropolitan.
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