SH Blog: Pacers Expect Granger Back This Week; Rondo Talks Injury; Chemistry Caused Rudy Gay Trade

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georgelebronThe Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers will square off for the first time tonight in Indianapolis since the Heat defeated the Pacers in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last spring.  

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NBA Gambling: Notes from the Quarter Pole – Bet The Lakers!

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The gambling life ain’t easy, folks — which is where today’s tale begins. But by the time you get to the end of today’s column, hopefully you’ll be amused by my personal adventures and enlightened by my leaguewide analysis.

We are at the quarter-pole of the NBA season, and trends have emerged.

First, to truly appreciate what it means to gamble on the NBA on a daily basis, you had to experience what it was like to bet on the Philadelphia 76ers and the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday, December 3rd. Before we begin, it is also important to note, I personally had a few dollars on the Magic and Raptors in these two contests, so you can follow the pain and agony along with me. Let me paint you a picture of what occurred in both of those games:

Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers

At the Las Vegas Hilton (LVH), the line opened at -3.5 in favor of the 76ers, quickly dropped to -3, and ended up closing at -4 just before tip-off. In terms of the over/under, the line opened at 208 and ended up closing at around 206.

oladipoAt the end of the 1st half, the Sixers led the Magic 58-57 and was on pace to go over the total early on.

The game went into the 4th quarter with the Sixers up 85-80 and with a little over six minutes left in regulation, Philadelphia had their largest lead of the quarter at 91-83.

The game came to a head with a minute left in regulation, the Sixers up 4 and the Magic coming out of a timeout. Aaron Afflalo hit a 3-pointer to reduce the Sixers’ lead to one, 102-101 and 15 seconds later, Thaddeus Young came right down the floor and drained six-foot jump shot of his own to extend the lead to three.

Then, the bizarro began …

Glen Davis, who has six career 3-pointers in 40 attempts over six-plus seasons, mailed a 3 to tie it, and Evan Turner missed a layup at the end of regulation to force overtime. The score of the game previous to Davis’ 3 was 104-101 (205 total points), which meant his “miraculous” three not only put the game into overtime, but took the point total from under to over.

The Sixers led by five with a minute and a half to go in overtime and ended up fouling Aaron Afflalo attempting a 3-pointer, down three, with 12 seconds left Afflalo made all three free throws and the game went to double-overtime. The Sixers again had a five-point lead, but this time with 20 seconds left in double-overtime, Andrew Nicholson hit a two-point field goal to bring the lead to three before the Magic fouled James Anderson, who missed both free throws for the Sixers.

Afflalo then missed a 3-point field goal attempt, the Sixers rebounded the ball and were fouled, Anderson then hit one of two free throws and “magic” happened for Orlando bettors. After a 20-second timeout with around one second left on the clock, Afflalo hit a 25-foot 3-pointer to make the final score 126-125 Sixers, instead of 126-122, which shifted the cover from Philadelphia to Orlando in under a second.

Welcome to the ups and downs of NBA gambling.

Later Tuesday, the Toronto Raptors traveled to Golden State to face the Warriors.

The line at LVH opened at -7.5 in favor of Golden State and closed at -8 before tip-off.

The game started out pretty normal, with about four minutes left in the first quarter, the Raptors were beating the Warriors 16-14 and by the time the whistle had blown focurryur minutes later, Toronto led Golden State 36-19 and the Warriors were 25 points away from covering through just 12 minutes of play.

By the time halftime hit, Toronto was up on Golden State by a score of 65-48 (again, 25 points away from covering for the Warriors). The Raptors kept up the pace and their superior play and took an 88-70 lead into the 4th.

The lead dwindled from 17 to 10 in less than four minutes, from 10 to tied in another four minutes, and with 47 seconds left, Harrison Barnes hit a 3-pointer to put Golden State up 109-103. After two misses from DeMar DeRozan, a miss from Steve Novak and three free throws from Stephen Curry, the Warriors won the game 112-103…and covered the game by one point after a 42-15 4th quarter.

After all of that, what is the point?

Gamblers had to roll through the ups and downs of those games and not drop dead from the crazy swings. It is not a life for the feeble.

Anyway, it’s time to take a look at which teams have been the best bets …  and which teams haven’t.

Against The Spread Standings


Team Record
Pacers 14-5
Blazers 14-5
Suns 13-5-1
Lakers 11-6-1
Bobcats 11-7-1
Hawks 12-8
Rockets 11-8-1
Nuggets 10-8
Wizards 10-8
Celtics 11-9
Clippers 11-9
Warriors 9-8-2
Pistons 10-9
Timberwolves 10-9
Spurs 9-9
Mavericks 10-10
Magic 9-9
Heat 9-10
Jazz 9-10-1
Sixers 9-10
Thunder 8-9
Pelicans 7-10-1
Raptors 7-10
Bulls 7-10
Grizzlies 6-11-1
Kings 5-10-1
Nets 6-13
Knicks 5-12
Cavaliers 5-13
Bucks 5-13

If you are familiar with the regular NBA standings, the top of the ATS (Against The Spread) standings should come as no shock to you with the Indiana Pacers and Portland Trail Blazers leading the way with 14 ATS wins so far this season.

The two teams collided earlier this week in Portland for one of the best games of the year. Portland come out on top and showed that they should be taken very seriously across the league this season. (Check out where LeMarcus Aldridge is ranked in Chris Sheridan’s latest MVP rankings.)

Some of the more surprising teams on this list have to be the top Eastern Conference teams; here are the top 5 in the ATS East: Indiana Pacers, Charlotte Bobcats, Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards and Boston Celtics. With the Knicks, Nets and Bulls near the bottom of the list, the entire conference has been turned upside down just a quarter into the season. My particular surprise team on this list has to be the Los Angeles Lakers. L.A. is 11-6-1 ATS for 4th place in the NBA, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.

Looking Forward: Against The Spread

I have said it since the beginning of the season and I will reiterate it now. I personally believe the Orlando Magic will have a bit of a successful season if you are using their preseason win total (24.5) line as the barometer. The Magic are currently 9-9 ATS through 18 games and 6-12 overall. As long as the books do not look at Orlando as a threa, I believe they will do a good job at covering numbers as underdogs against some of the better teams in the league.

Over the summer, I pinpointed four teams (three of which had 100/1 odds or greater) I personally liked to place future wagers on: Detroit Pistons, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans and my favorite, the Indiana Pacers. Based on what we have seen so far, I am not upset with any of those picks for a few different reasons. The Pacers own the best record in the NBA both straight up and ATS, and the Pelicans, Timberwolves and Pistons all have nine wins and are basically playing .500 basketball through a 1/4 of the season.

Update on Individual Awards

I am referencing the column I wrote on Sheridan Hoops about a week before the season started on the odds on such awards as the MVP, Rookie of the Year, Scoring leader as well as a few proposition bets. When accessing the rookie class so far, lets start with Chris Bernucca‘s Week 5 Rookie Rankings, which puts Michael Carter-Williams 1st (8/1), Victor Oladipo 2nd (4/1), Trey Burke 3rd (5/1), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 4th (20/1) and Ben McLemore 5th (7/1). I personally believe it will be a two-horse race between Oladipo and Carter-Williams, but given the lack of scoring around Burke and the fact he didn’t have as much of a head start as the other two players may not make a difference if he stays healthy.

georgelebronNext, we will dive into the current MVP race in the NBA. We will start by referencing Chris Sheridan‘s column earlier this week on the MVP award and its current participants a 1/4 of the way through the season. Here are Sheridan’s top five current candidates for the award: Paul George (35/1), LaMarcus Aldridge (125/1), Kevin Durant (3.5/1), LeBron James (1.4/1) and Tony Parker (30/1). The prices on the first two players on this list are very, very intriguing if you were able to grab tickets on them before the season started, but it is still very hard for me to believe that anyone else but LeBron James will ultimately win this award.

In my opinion, Paul George may have an actual shot to win this award if the Pacers can keep up their win pace to a degree for the remainder of the season. That would mean having to win 60+ games and keeping the remainder of the Eastern Conference a bunch of games behind them to make it look good compared to the absurd numbers James will put up by seasons end.

Nothing is too shocking when you are looking at the early numbers for scoring, rebounding and assist leaders in the clubhouse. Here are the top 5 players in each category, their preseason odds to lead the league in those statistical categories, and then I will throw in a dark-horse or two to watch as the season moves along.

Scoring

Kevin Durant  was the favorite at 6/5, and he is atop the league at 28.5 ppg. LeBron James is third at 25.7, and if he avoids any more of the energy voids like the one that plagued him in last night’s 20-point loss to Chicago, he can make a run for this distinction. (Check out this Chris Bernucca column on how James is doing things that even Michael Jordan didn’t do.) Carmelo Anthony went off at 3.15/1, and he is currently second at 25.9.

Rebounding

Only one rebound separates the top four players, led by the 13.6 of Kevin Love (1.5/1) followed by DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond and Dwight Howard, who was the preseason favorite at even money. Jordan and Drummond were 6-1 “field” bets.

Assists

paulwall

Chris Paul went off at 1.5 to 1 in the preseason, and John Wall, who is trailing him 11.8 to 9.2, should hang onto the league lead for the remainder of the season barring an injury. If that should happen, those who wagered on Wall at 9-1 or Ricky Rubio at 15/2 will have some nice action.

The Futures Market


Team Las Veags Offshore
Heat 3/2 +205
Thunder 9/2 +735
Pacers 5/1 +525
Spurs 15/2 +825
Rockets 10/1 15/1
Warriors 12/1 19/1
Clippers 12/1 14/1
Blazers 20/1 33/1
Timberwolves 40/1 60/1
Bulls 40/1 35/1
Grizzlies 50/1 45/1
Mavericks 50/1 80/1
Nets 60/1 30/1
Raptors 60/1 275/1
Nuggets 75/1 70/1
Pelicans 100/1 185/1
Pistons 100/1 150/1
Knicks 100/1 66/1
Celtics 100/1 350/1
Lakers 100/1 85/1
Wizards 100/1 150/1
Hawks 100/1 100/1
Cavaliers 200/1 150/1
Sixers 500/1 250/1
Kings 500/1 500/1
Suns 500/1 225/1
Bobcats 500/1 500/1
Magic 1000/1 750/1
Bucks 2000/1 500/1
Jazz 9999/1 1000/1

When comparing the current futures market rankings to the market we analyzed over the summer and right before the season started, a few different notes and observations come to mind.

The play of the two New York teams really sent a shock wave through the east coast. The Knicks and Nets were a combined 39/1 to win the NBA Championship if you added up both teams average odds before the season started. Now, they are a combined 128/1 and both in the melochandlerbottom half of the Eastern Conference, currently outside of the playoffs looking in. Injuries have been a big factor for both teams early in the season with Paul Pierce, Tyson Chandler and Deron Williams missing extended periods of time through the first quarter of the season.

The Blazers and Timberwolves look to have made the biggest jump to the list of contenders based on their future odds before the season started. Portland was between 100/1 and 200/1 depending on if you shopped in Las Vegas or offshore, and Minnesota was between 100/1 and 175/1, which makes both a pretty good investment at the current moment if you own their preseason tickets.

If I were to wager at the current moment, it would be very hard for me to resist taking the New York Knicks at 100/1 at the LVH knowing they are getting Tyson Chandler back, and I just do not believe it will get much worse for them.

They will make the playoffs and having a team like the Knicks, with what the remainder of the Eastern Conference looks like, I think a wager on 100/1 is hard to avoid.

I am not too sure what to do with this news, but either way, the Raptors are 60/1 in Las Vegas, but 275/1 offshore.

With the Atlantic Division looking so poor early on and the Celtics, 76ers and Raptors at the top of the division by a few games, the odds of the teams near the top just need to come down a bit. I do not think the Raptors are a threat to do anything of note, but the difference is noteworthy.

The current issue with betting futures on teams like the Hawks, Wizards and Pistons purely based on the standings is the fact that teams like the Magic, Raptors and Cavaliers are only two to three games back with only around 20 games having been played already.

Don’t judge a team based on the standings, but what you have seen from them on the floor and what you think the potential of that team is going forward.

Evan Abrams writes about basketball gambling for SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter @Betropolitan.

MORE FROM EVAN ABRAMS:

NBA ODDS ON PLAYERS BEING TRADED
PROP BET LINES ON SCORING LEADER, REBOUNDING, MVP, MORE
NBA FUTURES ODDS: LAS VEGAS VS. OFFSHORE
TEAM BY TEAM OVER/UNDER ODDS FOR WIN TOTALS

Sheridan’s MVP Rankings: Dec. 4 Edition — Paul George Back at No. 1

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couch

This caption doesn’t exactly fit what the author is writing, but it adequately shows your typical Knicks fan. Pacers fans act oppositely.

There are moments in life when we become one with our sofa.

We get comfortable, we sink deeper and deeper into the plush fabric, we cover ourself with a blanket or two and we try to set the record for popcorn consumption. (I worked in a cinema when I was 16, and my popcorn skills are second to none. Secret: Lots of oil, and add salt before and after the kernels pop. For those in need, flush with Lipitor.)

Monday night was one such night as the Pelicans and Bulls went to three overtimes, after which I watched one of the NBA’s great rarities of the 2013-14 season — the Indiana Pacers losing a game.

This happened in Portland, where great things are happening, and it will continue throughout this week as the barnstorming Pacers (who had the league’s easiest schedule in November) have their success put to the test against four of the West’s toughest teams.

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Stotts and Vogel named Coaches of the Month for November; LeBron and KD Players of the Week

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The Indiana Pacers’ Frank Vogel and the Portland Trail Blazers’ Terry Stotts today were named the NBA Eastern and Western Conference Coaches of the Month, respectively, for games played in October and November.

Vogel led Indiana to a 15-1 (.938) mark as the Pacers started the season 9-0 — the best start in franchise history and tied for the team’s longest NBA winning streak. The Pacers also went undefeated at home with a 9-0 record — the best home mark to start the season in franchise history. Indiana ranked first in the NBA in points allowed (85.6 ppg) and opponent field goal percentage (38.7). The Pacers also led the league in blocked shots (121) and outscored their opponents by an NBA-best 11.4 ppg.

Stotts guided the Trail Blazers to a 13-3 (.813) record that included an 11-game winning streak, tying for the fourth longest in team history. The Trail Blazers also won seven straight road games, including sweeping a four-game road trip for the first time since January of 2003. On Nov. 1, the Trail Blazers posted their first win at Denver since December 2007 defeating the Nuggets 113-98; and on Nov. 15, Portland recorded its first win at Boston since March 2004, beating the Celtics 109-96.

Other nominees for Coach of the Month were Houston’s Kevin McHale, the Los Angeles Clippers’ Doc Rivers, Miami’s Erik Spoelstra, Oklahoma City’s Scott Brooks and San Antonio’s Gregg Popovich.

 

The Miami Heat’s LeBron James and the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Kevin Durant today were named NBA Eastern and Western Conference Players of the Week, respectively, for games played Monday, Nov. 25, through Sunday, Dec. 1.

James helped the Heat to a 4-0 week on the strength of a league-best 29.0 ppg, as he shot over 60 percent from the field and 46.7 percent from distance. He scored at least 25 points in all four contests, tying his longest streak of consecutive 25-point games this season. James also contributed averages of 6.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.5 steals.

Durant guided the Thunder to three victories in as many games. He ranked second in the conference in scoring (27.0 ppg), fifth in rebounding (12.0 rpg) and 11th in assists (7.0 apg). Durant’s week included two double-doubles and a 32-point, 12-assist, 10-rebound triple-double in the Thunder’s 113-103 win over Minnesota Sunday.

Here is a recap of the week for James and Durant:

LeBron James, Miami Heat

Nov. 25 vs. Phoenix: Tallied 35 points, five rebounds and four assists in a 107-92 win over the Suns.

Nov. 27 @ Cleveland: Posted 28 points, eight rebounds, eight assists and three steals during a 95-84 win over the Cavs.

Nov. 29 @ Toronto: Recorded 27 points and six rebounds in a 90-83 win over the Raptors.

Dec. 1 vs. Charlotte: Contributed 26 points and five boards in a 99-98 win over the Bobcats.

Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder 

Nov. 27 vs. San Antonio: Posted a 24-point, 13-rebound, four-assist effort in a 94-88 victory over the Spurs.

Nov. 29 vs. Golden State: Recorded 25 points, 13 rebounds, five assists and two blocks in a 113-112 overtime victory against the Warriors.

Dec. 2 vs. Minnesota: In addition to recording a triple-double of 32 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds, contributed four blocks and four steals in a 113-103 victory over the Timberwolves.

Other nominees for the Eastern and Western Conference Players of the Week were Denver’s Ty Lawson, Detroit’s Andre Drummond, Golden State’s Stephen Curry, Houston’s Chandler Parsons, Indiana’s Paul George and Washington’s John Wall.

Bernucca: Is LeBron Better than Jordan? Read This Before Answering

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Remember that streak of games hot-shooting LeBron James put together last February?LeBron James

Well, he’s doing it again. Much earlier in the season. And for a longer stretch.

And if he keeps it up, it will become historic. Because since the ABA-NBA merger, no wing player or point guard has scored this much while shooting this well. Not Dr. J. Not even Michael Jordan.

Yes, really.

Through the first month of the season, James is third in the league in scoring at 26.2 points per game and second in field-goal percentage at .598.

“I’m in a very, very comfortable position right now with my game,” James said.

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