StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Memphis Grizzlies face franchise-defining questions

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zach randolphThe Memphis Grizzlies undoubtedly had a successful season, but a sweep at the hands of the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals leaves at least several questions that need to be answered and addressed.

Should Memphis do anything with Zach Randolph?
His playoff numbers declined pretty dramatic over Memphis’ three postseason rounds, leaving the team with an incredibly sour taste about ZBo going into the future.

Randolph Min FG % Points Rebounds FTA FT %
1st Round vs LAC 33.7 56.8 20.8 8 5.7 73.5
2nd Round vs OKC 39.6 44.6 18.4 10.8 7.2 72.2
Conf. Finals vs SA 38.5 30.2 11 12 6 50

How can a shooting slump like that be reconciled? Injury? Fantastic San Antonio defense by Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter? Or is it a more pressing problem that the statistically savvy Grizzlies front office needs to address?

“We just never could gain control of the paint,” Memphis Head Coach (for the time being) Lionel Hollins said. “They controlled the paint.” For a team that prides itself on, and thrives at, dominating on both sides of the floor on the interior, they were absolutely manhandled by the Spurs.

Marc Gasol had his problems offensively as well, shooting 39.7 percent from the floor and averaging five fewer points per game than he did against Oklahoma City in the second round despite taking virtually the same number of shots per game. Do the Grizzlies need to break up its interior duo to address other team needs to improve going forward, or did Randolph and Gasol just have a bad series?

Can Mike Conley keep up with the West’s elite point guards?
Tony Parker
Think about the amazing point guards in the Western Conference: Memphis got the best of Chris Paul and the Clippers in a long series, but avoided facing the injured Russell Westbrook in its series win over Oklahoma City. Then came the San Antonio Spurs, and Tony Parker ran roughshod over Conley, highlighted by his 37-point effort on 15-for-21 shooting in the Spurs’ Game 4 closeout win on Monday night.

In the four games, Parker averages 24.5 points per game on 53.2 percent shooting to go with 9.5 assists per game. For a team that was so good defensively all season, how can a performance like that be explained?

“He was outstanding the whole series, and he controlled the series with his penetration,” Hollins said of Parker. “He made shots, made plays. One game he has 18 assists, today he has 37 points. He was huge. But their team played well. You’ve got to give them credit.”

Conley was given a lot of credit this postseason for evolving into a better player, but his efficiency as a shooter leaves a lot to be desired:

Conley Min FG % 3 FG % Points Assists FTA
1st Round vs LAC 36.2 40.5 28.6 17.3 8.3 8.8
2nd Round vs OKC 41.2 36.5 28.6 18 6.5 4.6
Conf. Finals vs SA 38 38.3 26.7 15.3 5.8 4.3

Conley is usually a very good defender, but he needs to be more economical in his scoring for player and team to make that next step. Paul, Westbrook and Parker are likely going to be on Western Conference contenders for a while, so Conley will have to improve even more for Memphis to get to The Finals.

What will Memphis do at small forward?
220px-Tayshaun_Prince
There’s no doubt that the Grizzlies are a better franchise going forward without Rudy Gay, but the team’s long-term future at the 3 needs to be addressed. San Antonio’s Kawhi Leonard shot nearly 60 percent from the field, 53.8 percent from deep, and averaged seven boards per game.

We know Tayshaun Prince is not the long-term option, but perhaps Quincy Pondexter is. In just 23.8 minutes per game in the postseason, he averaged nearly nine points per game on 48.9 percent shooting and 45.3 percent from three. But his numbers shot up to 32 minutes per game against San Antonio, and Pondexter rewarded the team by scoring 15.3 points per game on 53.7 percent shooting (48 percent from three).

“We learned that winning isn’t easy and winning championships is one of the hardest things you can possibly do,” Pondexter said. “I think our guys really dug deep to get as far as we did, and San Antonio’s a tremendous team. We’re going to take a couple pages out of their book.”

One of those pages could be using Pondexter as its long-term starter at the position.

Should Memphis keep Tony Allen?
The defensive stalwart is a free agent this summer, and the team has to decide whether he’s worth a lucrative long-term deal. His offensive numbers also got progressively worse as the postseason went on, down to eight points per game on 37.5 percent shooting against the Spurs, so there is a lot of potential for the team to make key moves that would change the overall fabric of the team.

Will Memphis hold on to Lionel Hollins?
The team undoubtedly improved under his watch, so much so that the Clippers and Nets will probably pursue him in the near future to fill their respective head coaching vacancies. What commitment will the franchise give to Hollins going forward, especially after he criticized analytics earlier this season even though Memphis hired statistical wonk John Hollinger earlier as the front office changed direction? Defensive wiz Dave Joerger could be waiting in the wings if Hollins departs.

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

SH Blog: Pierce Done In Boston? Curry Stars On And Off The Court; LeBron Open About 2010 “Phantom” Injury

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Paul PierceNothing great has ever been accomplished without enthusiasm.

And for Paul Pierce, leader of the “old man’s pick-up game,” that adage will define his career as one of the greatest Boston Celtics in its storied history.

This is not to begin mourning the death of his Celtics life, but to understand what it all meant if reports today from Greg Dickerson are true

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StatBox Playoff Breakdown- Grit & grind Grizzlies begin with defense and end with victories

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It’s no fun to talk about the struggled of the hurting, reeling, futile Chicago Bulls. They shot roughly 25 percent and scored 65 points without three leading players (if you include Derrick Rose). It almost seems like the Heat feel bad for the Bulls. A more interesting story is of a long-overlooked franchise seizing its window of opportunity to advance further than it ever has before: the hard-nosed Memphis Grizzlies.

Marc GasolWith Russell Westbrook out for Oklahoma City, Memphis knows it can move on to the conference finals for the first time if it defends Kevin Durant decently and plays solid all-around defense. And that’s what they’re doing. Memphis is also the only team to not lose on its home floor this postseason, a streak now up to seven after its 103-97 overtime win over OKC in Monday night’s Game 4. The Grizzlies now lead the series 3-1 and are in great shape to make the NBA’s semifinal round.

Memphis allowed just three points in OT on Monday, and came back from a 17-point deficit early to force the extra session. One huge reason why the Grizzlies are in this advantageous position is its defense of Durant. ESPN Stats & Info pointed out that Durant was 2-for-13 shooting in the fourth quarter and OT and 0-for 7 when Tayshaun Prince guarded him. Prince’s acquisition is one of the several reasons why the Rudy Gay trade was such a success, as outlined in a previous StatBox column.

I wrote before the series that Durant would have to have an other-worldly performance for Oklahoma City to defeat Memphis, and he delivered that over the first two games of the series. But Lionel Hollins and Memphis set its sights on curtailing Durant, and that effort has been undeniably successful. Look at these averages:

Durant Minutes Shots FG % Points Reb Assists FTA
Games 1-2 43.5 23.5 51.1 35.5 13 7.5 11
Games 3-4 47 23 41.3 26 9 6 6
KD hasn't been the same in games 3 and 4.

KD hasn’t been the same in games 3 and 4.

Despite playing for virtually the same amount of time and putting up basically the same amount of field goals, there’s no doubt that Durant has been less affective these past few games as opposed to the pair of games in Oklahoma City. His field goal percentage is a full 10 points lower, and his scoring average has dipped nearly 10 points as well. The rebounds, assists and trips to the free throw line have gone down as well, which can only be attributed to strong defense.

Memphis was able to come back to force overtime in Game 4 by allowing just 38 points in the second half, and a lot of that had to do with Marc Gasol’s exceptional defensive play. The Defensive Player of the Year probably didn’t care about only being named to the All-NBA Defensive Second Team, but he played like one pretty angry grizzly bear on Monday night, pulling down 11 rebounds, blocking six shots and altering several others (not to mention deterring OKC from driving to the hoop, which shows in Durant’s decrease in free throw attempts per game as shown above).

With Durant, Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins in the frontcourt, Oklahoma City isn’t used to being at a disadvantage inside. But not only did Memphis outscore OKC 44-30 in the paint in Game 4, the Grizzlies were plus-seven in the turnover battle (15 to just eight for Memphis) and plus-eight (18-10) in points off those turnovers.

Mike Conley (this week’s regional Sports Illustrated cover boy) only shot 7-for-21 from the field, but was 4-for-10 from three and only committed one turnovers to four by his OKC counterpart Reggie Jackson.

“We are a team that just plays hard and doesn’t quit,” Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins said after the game. “We scratch. We claw. They said grit and grind. I don’t know what the heck that means, but we go out and we just battle. We compete. We’re not the most talented team that’s in the playoffs when we started out. We’re not the most talented team that’s left in the playoffs. But we go and compete.”

Prince and Tony Allen have played standout defense and Zach Randolph has been his usual force inside. Memphis may not have the most talent in the Western Conference, but they’re playing the best defense and aren’t really turning the ball over. Those are two traits that winners possess. so it should come as no surprise that the “Grit & Grind” Grizzlies are currently winning more than ever before.

 Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

Tweet of the Day: Media response to the NBA All-Defensive Teams

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Monday brings with it two crucial second round Game 4s—with games between Miami and Chicago as well as Oklahoma City and Memphis—and the NBA announcing the All-Defensive Team.

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StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Knicks’ guards key big run and assertive Conley guides Grizzlies

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Tuesday night’s games were all about guard play and righting a set of wrongs from Game 1. The Knicks’ guards didn’t do enough to overshadow the strong play of Indiana’s frontcourt, but Pablo Prigioni helped New York rectify that problem during a historic fourth quarter run. And Memphis needed a boost from Mike Conley after a subpar Game 1 performance, and Conley redeemed himself during the Grizzlies’ huge Tuesday night road win. Let’s discuss these themes as part of the StatBox Playoff Breakdown:

Knicks exploit backcourt advantage
Prigioni featured imageAt the outset of the series, I wrote that both the Knicks and Pacers have advantages they will need to exploit in order to advance to the conference finals. Indiana’s big men led the team to a big Game 1 road win, but it was New York’s guard play that gave the Knicks a resounding 105-79 Game 2 win on Tuesday night.

While the Knicks had an incredible six turnovers all game as a team, and finally got a relatively efficient shooting night from Carmelo Anthony, the key Indiana trio of Paul George, David West and Roy Hibbert combined for 11 of the team’s 21, seven of them from George himself! The turnovers and dip in production from the Pacers’ best players were key factors in their loss.

Pacers Frontcourt FG % Points TO FTA
Game 1 50 53 9 15
Game 2 50 39 11 8

The Knicks’ three-guard lineup of Pablo Prigioni, Raymond Felton and Iman Shumpert paid dividends in Game 2, after an average first game. It was Prigioni and Felton who helped key a 30-2 run in the third and fourth quarters to turn this contest into a laugher.

“I think I was trying to make a statement,” said Shumpert. “I just wanted to win this game real bad. We needed this game.”

Besides for the volume-shooting enigma J.R. Smith, Shumpert, Prigioni and Felton were guards who were instrumental in New York’s bounce-back win. Look at what those three did in Game 2 compared to Sunday’s series opener:

Knicks Key Guards FG % 3 FG % Points Assists Rebounds TO
Game 1 50 40 29 10 6 4
Game 2 66.7 71.4 39 10 12 1

Since it will be hard to deal with Indiana’s size, the Knicks will have to compensate with top-level play from their starting guards in order to win three more games in this series.

Memphis needs Conley the Conquerer
Mike Conley
In the food chain of NBA point guards, there’s no question that Russell Westbrook was the predator to the prey who is Mike Conley. Exit Westbrook and enter Reggie Jackson and a huge advantage for Memphis in this series. If the Grizzlies would get the Alpha Conley in this series, they would have a good chance of winning it. Alpha Conley, or Conley the Conquerer, did not show up in Game 1, but he sure did in Tuesday night’s Game 2 win.

“We needed to have somebody on the perimeter do something,” said Memphis Head Coach Lionel Hollins. He started getting to the basket a little bit and scored some big jump shots late.”

Conley was far from his assertive self in Game One, but really took the intiative in Game 2 and really willed the Grizzlies to a 99-93 win.

Conley FG % Points Assists Rebounds TO
Game 1 33.3 13 3 5 2
Game 2 50 26 9 10 2

“The last game, we didn’t execute down the stretch, didn’t get the stops when we needed them and tonight we did vice-versa,” Conley said. “We got the stops, got the rebounds, made big shots and free throws.”

Conley, whom Tony Allen called a top-five point guard after the game, can talk about the stops and the rebounds all he wants, but it was his assertiveness and overall conquistadorian nature that guided Memphis to an enormous win that could set them up quite well for the duration of this series. If Conley continues,

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.