Abrams: NBA Futures Market Transitions Into April

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With March Madness officially behind us and a little over two weeks left in the NBA regular season, the majority of sports gamblers turn their focus back to the NBA.

Attacking the NBA futures market and NBA playoff odds before the regular season ends can be a very profitable way to walk into the playoffs. In this column, we are going to analyze some of the differences between what the futures market looked like a little over a month ago and what the odds are as of April 1st.

Some of the biggest differences you will see in the futures are fewer teams listed and a more balanced gap between the teams and odds across the board. The previous “Eight Pillars Of NBA” piece listed futures on 30 different teams, while the futures market now currently only lists odds for 18 teams. Out of the 18 teams that are currently listed in the chart below, 14 of them had their odds go up since February 28th. Three teams had their odds go down: Miami Heat, Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets; the Indiana Pacers have the exact same odds today as they did a month ago.

The dollar amounts I have listed on the chart give you an idea of how much money you would have lost or gained if you placed a $100 wager on that teams future now versus my last column a little over a month ago:

 


Pillar 1 Heat 1st Odds are NEWEST
1/1.2 & 1.5/1
($67)
Pillar 2 Thunder    Spurs
4.35/1 & 3.5/1   6.5/1 & 5.5/1
$85 $10
Pillar 3 Nuggets    Clippers   Pacers
16/1 & 35/1   17.5/1 & 10/1   18/1 & 18/1
($190) $75 $0
Pillar 4 Lakers    Knicks   Bulls   Grizzlies
23/1 & 25/1   28/1 & 18/1   35/1 & 23/1   40/1 & 27/1
($20) $100 $120 $130
Pillar 5 Celtics    Nets
50/1 & 45/1   70/1 & 33/1
$50 $370
Pillar 6 Hawks    Warriors   Rockets
125/1 & 75/1   125/1 & 66/1   150/1 & 125/1
$500 $590 $250
Pillar 7 Bucks    Mavericks   Jazz
300/1 & 275/1   400/1 & 300/1  450/1 & 150/1
$250 $1,000 $3,000

 

If you simply take a look at the line changes and compare them to playoff position, you can see the “best bets” at the current moment.

When it comes to ensuring a profit in futures NBA bets, matchups become the biggest aspect during the playoffs. If you can avoid playing teams like the Miami Heat for just one extra round, it can mean one more round of lighter odds and possibly an easier opponent in route to the Finals.

The NBA regular season ends on April 17th, so at the current moment matchups are near impossible to guarantee for the road to the Finals. The two and three seeds in the Eastern Conference are tied, while the 4, 5 and  6 seeds are separated by a game and a half.  The most likely matchup at the moment is the Miami Heat against the Milwaukee Bucks as the one versus eight seeds in the first round, that is certainly not a sure thing.

With 2, 3 , 6 and 7 avoiding Miami until the conference finals, it was very difficult for me to leave the Brooklyn Nets off my team of recommended wagers at this price. Originally at 33/1 a month ago and now at 70/1, Brooklyn is currently the number four seed in the east and lined up to play Chicago or Atlanta in the first round of the playoffs. The Nets are just 3-4 straight up and 2-5 against the spread versus the Hawks and Bulls this season.

If Brooklyn can get Joe Johnson healthy over the next two weeks I feel the 70/1 future could definitely be an investment come hopefully the second round of the playoffs against Miami.

When looking at the 8th playoff spot in the Western Conference here is a breakdown of the Utah Jazz, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers:


Odds Home/Road Left Playoff Teams Remaining Proj. Final Team Rankings Playoff %
Utah Jazz 450/1   4/3 DEN, @GDST, OKC, @MEM 39-36/4-3 50.90%
Los Angeles Lakers 23/1   6/2 DAL, MEM, @LAC, GDST, SA, HOU 38-36/5-3 43.50%
Dallas Mavericks 400/1   4/5  @LAK, @DEN, DEN, MEM 36-37/5-4 7.10%

The issue with finding value in any of these three teams fighting for the eight seed is the fact they are 38-81 (.319) against teams .500 and better this season. In my honest opinion, I think the Spurs can be beat. A recent injury to Manu Ginobili, who is out the remainder of the regular season, has put San Antonio in a position where they are only one game up on Oklahoma City for the number one seed in the west.

As much as I want to recommend a small wager on the Mavericks at 400/1 to put a large scare in the Spurs, I am not sure Dallas will be that last team in the playoffs this year. The Jazz are 3 games ahead of the Mavericks in the win column right now with only around eight games left for each team. At 450/1, the Utah Jazz simply represents more value at the current moment than the Lakers and Mavericks. Are the Lakers better equipped to win four games in around a week against the Thunder or Spurs…possibly; but at 23/1 and an upward battle from the ninth spot in the west, it might not be worth the “gamble.”

In the Lakers eight games remaining on their schedule they face six “playoff” teams, with five of them being at the Staples Center.

This may be a good thing for Los Angeles, as they are 5-1 in their last six home games versus “playoff” teams coming in.

 

 

 

 

 

Here are a few influential statistics that I believe will come into play come playoff time:

1. Who are the top 6 teams in the NBA (winning percentage) in close-margined road games this season?


Nets .778
Warriors .700
Heat .636
Spurs .636
Bucks .636
Knicks .636

———————————-

2. These 5 teams are the best at defending the “runway” (the rim to 9 feet away from the basket; opponent field goal percentage) in the NBA.


Pacers 51.20%
Thunder 54.70%
Spurs 54.80%
Nuggets 54.90%
Bucks 55.20%

———————————-

3. Which “playoff” teams are the worst against the spread across the NBA?


Lakers 30-43-1
Bucks 33-40
Bulls 33-39
Celtics 33-38-3
Hawks 35-38-2
Nets 35-36-3

———————————-

4. An NBA efficiency formula I put together, which calculates defensive statistics and simple offensive efficiency (((Assists Per Game) – (Turnovers Per Game)) + DEF (Steals, Blocks & Charges Drawn)).


Bucks 25.9
Nuggets 25.8
Spurs 25.6
Clippers 25.3
Heat 24.3
Hawks 23.6
Jazz 23.6

———————————-

Evan Abrams contributes gambling-related articles to SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter, where he goes by @Betropolitan.

Top 5 moments from November 20, 2012 – MWP says stop the flop

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Metta World Peace does not like the act of flopping.

During a very closely-contested game between the Brooklyn Nets and the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday night, World Peace learned how good of a flopper Gerald Wallace can be. He quickly learned that Reggie Evans can be even better, as shown in the clip below:

 

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Fantasy Spin: September 24, 2012 – Part I

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Atlantic Division Fantasy Preview (Part I)

While we follow the NBA closely and have opinions about the best teams in each division, fantasy owners shouldn’t care about the standings.

Starting today, we’ll look at each team’s fantasy strengths and weaknesses: coaching, probable rotation, expected pace and other characteristics. Plus you’ll get our tips on which players to target, or avoid.

This week-long series is a team effort. Jeff Nichols examines the Northwest tomorrow, Bruce Wrigley looks at the Pacific on Wednesday and I’ll visit the Southwest on Thursday. Bruce returns on Friday with the Central, then Jeff wraps it up on Saturday with the Southeast.

Each divisional preview has two parts. They begin with an intro and the two teams we like best. Part II will examine the other three teams.

Hold off on the angry comments, Celtics fans. I am NOT “predicting” your team will finish fourth. Just saying that in my drafts, everything else being equal, I’d give slight extra credit to a Nets or Knicks player because those teams should produce better overall fantasy numbers.

Brooklyn Nets

What a difference a year makes. From a last-place finish in New Jersey to a new name, new arena and some key new players. The Nets were 23rd in the league in offensive efficiency last season and 24th in scoring but those numbers are certain to improve. Not only is the starting five much stronger, the bench is greatly improved. In his offseason analysis, Chris Bernucca calls them “a 50-win team that could make a lot of noise in the postseason.”

I’m expecting them to score 100 points a night and don’t care about the W-L record.

Best to Own

Deron Williams Missed 11 games last year, played hurt in many more and was often a one-man team. With more support at every position, D-Will should become more efficient.

Solid Contributors

Joe Johnson One of the Nets’ new offensive weapons, Johnson may not get quite as many touches as he did in Atlanta but can still score and will be open for some corner threes.

Gerald Wallace Has been traded midseason the last two years; now gets a full camp with talented teammates. “Crash” is a fantasy asset for REB and STL in addition to PTS.

Brook Lopez Not a great rebounder for a 7-foor center, Lopez does block shots and score enough to be  a valuable commodity. On the court, he was irreplaceable.

Kris Humphries It’s not enough of a concern to put him on my “avoid” list, but Hump was — by necessity —more of a focal point last year and is now the fifth option. Some decline in his numbers is anticipated.

Players to Avoid

Reggie Evans Tough guy won’t play much and his style is a fantasy negative.

Tyshawn Taylor PG had a strong senior year at Kansas but the Nets’ veteran starters and deep bench will make it tough for rookies to contribute.

Tornike Shengelia Rookie from Georgia (the country, not the state) had a Eurobasket game of 20 PTS, 9 REB, 2 BLK and 2 STL recently, but unless you’re in a crazy-deep keeper league, isn’t worth drafting

Jerry Stackhouse No longer relevant in fantasy, Stack is nearing the end of a long career.

Josh Childress  Was a much better player (and a sneaky contributor in several categories) before he played in Greece for two years. Unlikely to improve on his poor numbers with the Suns; does provide extra depth.

Fantasy Sleepers

Mirza Teletovic Without the kind of fanfare that comes with going deep into the NCAA tournament and being a high draft pick, this 27-year-old could be among the league’s best rookies. He gives the Nets a shooter off the bench, capable of backing up at both forward spots. 

High Risk/High Reward

Andray Blatche Has size and skill but an attitude that rubbed coaches and teammates the wrong way in Washington. Gets a chance to make a better impression in Brooklyn and could be one of the better backup C if he’s more focused.

C.J. Watson The risk is playing time if D-Will stays healthy, the reward is playing time — and proven productivity — if D-Will gets hurt.

MarShon Brooks Role is limited by the addition of Joe Johnson but if he does fall in your draft, worth considering.

knicks small logoNew York Knicks

The highest-scoring team in the division a year ago with 97.8 points per game. They will continue to play at a reasonable pace and substitution patterns are consistent. Remember, we’re not saying they will finish second behind Brooklyn, only that Knicks are almost as good to own as Nets in fantasy leagues, and slightly better to own than players from the other three Atlantic Division teams we discuss in Part II of this article.

Best to Own

Carmelo Anthony You can count on PTS (career average 24.7) with reasonable contributions in other categories. If you read my SF Tiers article, you already know he’s a solid Tier 2 at a position that isn’t deep.

Amar’e Stoudemire Reportedly in great shape and spent a week working with Hakeem Olajuwon on his offensive moves. While everyone has an opinion on his “chemistry” (or lack thereof) with Melo, I’m expecting a bounce-back from last season’s slightly disappointing numbers.

Solid Contributors

Tyson Chandler Has improved his once-lackluster offensive game dramatically over the last two years and is one of the more consistent, reliable fantasy performers.

Raymond Felton Won’t be one of the league’s best PG, but he’ll get the majority of minutes on a talented team and should produce enough to add depth to fantasy rosters.

Fantasy Sleepers

J.R. Smith Benefits early in the season from the injuries to other SG and if he gets off to the anticipated hot start, becomes a “sell high” candidate later on.

Steve Novak Always seems to be around late in a draft, when his 3-point contributions can be just what your roster needs.

Iman Shumpert Expected to miss at least the first month recovering from ACL surgery and as a result, will fall in drafts. If you can afford to stash him, could be an asset in the second half.

Players to Avoid

Kurt Thomas A third-stringer only at this stage; capable of filling in adequately in the event of an injury.

Pablo Prigioni One of the oldest NBA rookies ever, this Argentine national team and Euroleague veteran likely won’t play unless one (or both) other PG get hurt.

High Risk/High Reward

Ronnie Brewer Likely to miss training camp after surgery on a torn meniscus, he’s expected to be ready for the season. If his role is limited to backup SF, minutes will be scarce. If he starts at SG for his defensive abilities, he could be a cheap source of useful fantasy stats, particularly steals.

Marcus Camby At 38, isn’t likely to play much, but he can still stuff the boxscore and is a good handcuff to Chandler in deep leagues.

Jason Kidd The risk is that he won’t see much action behind Raymond Felton. The possible reward comes if Felton disappoints, and the 39-year-old earns at least a timeshare. FG% is horrible but helps in AST, REB, STL and 3PTM when he plays.

CONTINUE READING Part II…

SH Blog: Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner to play key roles for 76ers, Stoudemire’s post game improved

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The Philadelphia 76ers had an impressive party of sorts on Wednesday for Andrew Bynum’s press conference, thanks to all the devoted fans (see the video below) that showed great love for their newly acquired center. Bynum will surely look to make a notable impact on the team, but the Sixers have other players of significance that will have to mature into greater roles if they wish to play at a high level as a team. See who some of those players are, along with other noteworthy news from Thursday:

  • Andrew Bynum’s arrival in Philadelphia is big, but he will need help from Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner for bigger things to happen for the 76ers, from John Finger of CSN Philly: “It’s going to give him more opportunity. If you look at last year, we had four guys who wanted to finish games — we had [Lou Williams] and Evan and Jrue and [Andre Iguodala],” Collins said. “Evan is going to take a great step leadership-wise.”… “I think Evan knows what opportunity is there for him,” Collins said. “Just think about it — last year Evan was our best rebounder. This year he could arguably be our third or fourth-best rebounder. That would be amazing because with the big guys on the boards you can get out more and go with it.  ”Big men give you a chance to have a running game, they give you rim protection, they get you to the foul line and they get you to the paint where the game is won. I think Evan has a great shot to take another big jump. I know he’s working very, very hard.”… “We look at Andrew, Jrue and Evan as starters,” Collins said. “Then you have to look at guys like Nick [Young], [Jason Richardson], and Dorell Wright as guys who will need to step up and replace a guy like Andre Iguodala. We lost some key contributors, and we’re going to have to replace them. That’s what training camp is for.”
  • Lost in all the 76ers hoopla has been veteran swingman Jason Richardson, who is looking forward to prove that he is more than just a “throw-in” player, from John Mitchell of The Inquirer: “Richardson made it known that he intends to be anything but a throw-in player as part of the 12-player, four-team trade that brought Bynum and him to the Sixers last week. ”It’s really a great opportunity for me at this point in my career to come to a team that is headed on the upswing,” the former Orlando swingman said. “I’m looking forward to coming to Philly and contributing in a big way.” And the Sixers are looking forward to his contributions.”
  • Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was rather critical of Andrew Bynum on Wednesday, but changed his tone about the big man on Thursday through his facebook page: “I would like to wish Andrew Bynum good luck with his new team. I’m sure he will do well as he has continued to improve every year that he has played in the NBA. I’m sure he will be part of a strong foundation that will revive the 76er franchise. My good friend Doug Collins will be very pleased with the skill and experience that he brings to the team.” KAJ, August 16, 2012″
  • While rehabbing his injured knee, Derrick Rose will work on other parts of his body that he has never used before, from Sam Aggrey of CSN Chicago: ”That’s what I’m thinking of right now. This is actually going to be the foundation of everything. I’m actually learning how to work parts of my body that I’ve never used before. Naturally, I’m just gifted,” he told CSNChicago.com in an exclusive interview, his first public comments since his late-April knee injury and subsequent May surgery to repair the ligament. “My balance wasn’t that good. I remember coming in my rookie year and the trainers and everybody on staff were like, ‘How do you play the way you play and you can’t even balance on one foot for that long? How do you move that way?’ Or not being flexible with the way that I play. One of the tightest guys muscle-wise, just super-tight; they never saw that and me playing the way that I play, it’s just weird.
  • Zach Lowe of Sports Illustrated explained the good and the bad of post play of a number of players. Here is the scoop on Paul Pierce: “The data include any possession a player finishes in the post via a shot attempt, drawn foul or turnover. It does not include data on assists a player records out of the post, an omission that makes LeBron James’ ranking here even more impressive. Some nuggets to pass along: All hail Paul Pierce, the only player to rank in the top five in both seasons. The Celtics’ small forward ascended to the top in 2011-12, when he averaged 1.057 points per possession and shot 48 percent from the post. Pierce, 34, posted up a bit more often last season than in 2010-11, suggesting that he has discovered a weapon that will age well. He drew a free throw on 21 percent of his post-up possessions, the highest number in the sample. That old man game …”
  • Hakeem Olajuwon believes Amare Stoudemire’s post game has drastically improved since they started training together and called it a “night and day” transformation, from Howard Beck of The New York Times: “The pick-and-rolling, power-dunking star is now a student of the low post. His teacher is a soft-spoken Hall of Famer with a Nigerian accent and two championship rings. Hakeem Olajuwon, a former Houston Rockets star and an oracle of the low post, is pleased with his pupil’s progress. “You won’t believe it,” Olajuwon said in a telephone interview from his ranch outside Houston. The apprenticeship began on Aug. 6, with daily three-hour sessions on Olajuwon’s private court. Stoudemire has proved a quick study, assimilating moves and countermoves as fast as Olajuwon can demonstrate them. “It’s night and day,” Olajuwon said. “What’s so nice is he wants it; he likes the post. He’s always wanted to play there, but he doesn’t have the moves that would give him that option.”
  • Celtics rookie Jared Sullinger will do whatever it takes to help the team win and won’t mind sacrificing his offense, according to Jessica Camerato of CSNNE: “After getting his first taste of the NBA in the Orlando and Las Vegas Summer Leagues last month, where he averaged over 12 points per game, Sullinger has returned home to Ohio. He felt he rushed some of his shots and is working toward getting acclimated to the speed of the NBA game. The 20-year-old is applying the feedback received to his training before the start of the season. “[The coaches] just said I played really well and there are certain things I’ve got to get better at,” Sullinger said. “Pick-and-roll defense, understanding the offense a little more, understanding that there’s a lot I’m not going to be getting due to having Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo out there on the floor, and obviously Jason Terry. There’s a lot of shots I won’t be normally taking, so I’ve got to get used to it ASAP.”
  • Jay-Z helped convince the NBA officials that there was nothing wrong with the new Nets’ color scheme, from David M. Halbfinger of The New York Times: “He helped design the team logos and choose the team’s stark black-and-white color scheme, and personally appealed to National Basketball Association officials to drop their objections to it (the N.B.A., according to a person with knowledge of the discussion, thought that African-American athletes did not look good on TV in black, an assertion that a league spokesman adamantly denied). He counseled arena executives on what kind of music to play during games. (“Less Jersey,” he urged, pushing niche artists like Santigold over old favorites like Bon Jovi.)
  • Greg Oden wants to be a gym teacher if he can’t continue his basketball career, from Slam Online: “‘If it happens, it happens,’ Oden said. ‘I’ve got to move on with my life. I know I want to play basketball. If I physically can’t play basketball, then I’ve got to move on … I’ve still got to wake up tomorrow. I’ve still got to live. One day, I’m going to want a family and I’ve got to provide for them. So if basketball doesn’t work out, you gotta keep it moving… I actually want to be a [high school or middle school] gym teacher,’ he said. ‘I feel like they have the best job ever. You think about it, they get their weekends off and they get to wear sweats every day to work.’
  • Check out this wonderful story of a Nets fan, who runs into CEO Brett Yormark, who then turns the fan into an intern, from Nets Daily. A video of the whole scene can be found on the provided link: “The day after the Draft, long-time Nets fan Vivek Shah was walking near Rockefeller Center when he spotted Brett Yormark exiting a sushi restaurant with a member of the team’s ownership. Shah introduced himself as a long-time fan and had his picture taken with Yormark. The Nets CEO invited Shah for a tour of the Nets Brooklyn offices, which took place this week. The tour was taped and posted Tuesday. In it, Yormark shows off the ticket selling pit and some artifacts of the Nets New Jersey history and its Brooklyn future. At tour’s end, before giving Shah some Nets swag, Yormark asks about Shah’s education. On hearing economics and finances, tells his executive assistant, Jisset Pena, “Jisset, finance and economics, intern.” Not a bad fan day.”
  • Dwight Howard apparently bought a home in Los Angeles for $20 million, according to Mike Gabriel of Mikedupradio:
So, Dwight Howard just purchased a home in LA, for nearly $20M......and wrote a check for the house. #Boss #Lakers
@MikedupRadiocom
Mike Gabriel
  • John Salley said that Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar were all better players than Michael Jordan, from  IAMAGM: “”I love Michael. I’m a Michael Jordan fan, like everyone else. I just don’t think he’s the greatest player ever. I think the greatest player I ever played against was Magic Johnson. Next was Larry Bird. Then Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. The hardest guy I ever had to guard? Hakeem Olajuwon. …. The greatest player I ever played with? I played with Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen …. Isiah Thomas is the greatest player I’ve ever played with.”

Kobe Bryant’s wife thinks her husband should win a championship every season

Kyrie Irving explains the evolution of his crossover moves


Monta Ellis makes return to Golden State; Heat survive fourth quarter meltdown

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For so many years, Monta Ellis had been the subject of trade rumors.

Although he was always in discussions, the team could never find the guts to trade the face of its franchise.

Until this season.

Under the new leadership of owner Joe Lacob, changes were finally made when the Warriors broke up the small back court of Stephen Curry and Ellis. One of the final pieces of the Cohen era, Ellis was traded along with Ekpe Udoh and Kwame Brown to the Milwaukee Bucks for Andrew Bogut — the type of true center the franchise had long coveted — along with former Warrior Stephen Jackson who was traded away again for Richard Jefferson and soon to be retired T.J. Ford along with a conditional first round pick.

On Friday night, Ellis played his first game in his new uniform against the only team he has ever known for the past six and a half seasons.

Special tributes were made, fans had never supported a former player more, and a night to remember unfolded in the sold-out Oracle Arena, the first time a game against the Bucks was sold out in 16 years.

From Rusty Simmons of San Francisco Chronicle: “An hour later, Ellis got a standing ovation from one side of Oracle Arena when he entered through the visitors’ tunnel for the first time since being traded to the Bucks on Tuesday. After stopping to hug assistant coach Pete Myers and swingman Dorell Wright and discuss his new red shoes with guard Nate Robinson, Ellis got the same admiration when he strutted to the far end of the court to start his preparations. Ellis got cheered again when he jogged out with his new teammates for pregame layup lines. Out of a sign of respect, the Warriors announced him last of the five Milwaukee starters, which set off a 22-second standing ovation that extended five more seconds after he gave a two-handed waving salute. The only former Warriors who regularly get cheered here are Antawn Jamison and Jason Richardson, and those guys’ pregame cheers turn to boos when they start scoring baskets. For Milwaukee’s Mike Dunleavy, the boos started when he entered the game. Ellis was different. The Warriors’ fans applauded his first basket – a 14-foot pull-up jumper 42 seconds into the game – and his final basket, a sweeping runner that gave the Bucks an 89-75 lead with 10:39 remaining in the fourth quarter. All told, Ellis came back to Oracle and did what he had done for much of the previous 6 1/2 seasons. He scored 18 points on 6-for-15 shooting and dished out four assists. Only this time, he got a win for a team that is tied for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. ”They loved me here and I loved them back,” Ellis said of the fans. “One thing I can say: The 6 1/2 years I’ve been here, the fans have given nothing but great support to me, and I tried to give it all on the court for them. I feel that’s part of my family.”

From Marcus Thompson II of San Jose Mercury News:  ”Friday was Monta Ellis night at Oracle Arena… It wasn’t one of his most sterling performances, but Ellis still captured Warriors fans. ”It was great how the fans applauded, showed their respects,” Ellis said. “I respect them for that. Much love. I’ve been here for seven years. It was up and down, but at the end of the day, I can’t ask for anything more.”… ”You’ve got to respect a guy like that,” said Ellis’ new backcourt mate, Bucks point guard Brandon Jennings. “A guy who played hard like that, a guy who basically was carrying this team for a long time. There was a lot of love. Even when he was sitting on the bench. I can tell they were upset that he’s gone. But, uh, we’re happy.” … It was certainly a different Ellis from the one Warriors fans were used to. He was wearing green and scarlet instead of blue and gold, No. 11 — “My high school number” — instead of No. 8. No longer the centerpiece star, he was a cog in what looked like a well-oiled machine… ”I think it’s best for both teams,” Ellis said, adding, “I knew it was going to come to this at one point I my life. I used to be that young guy coming in and playing behind Baron (Davis) and Stephen Jackson and then they (left). I knew one day that some young guy was going to come in behind me and do the same thing, so I was prepared for it…”I really just want to get the win,” Ellis said before the game. “I’m not going to try to come out here and kill the Warriors. Like I said, they were great to me. They gave me my shot. If it weren’t for them, I wouldn’t be the Monta Ellis I am today.” After the final horn sounded and he completed his postgame interviews on the court, Ellis said one more goodbye to the fans. He waved to the screaming remnants as he headed toward the visiting locker room. Monta Ellis night was complete.

Although many wondered what Ellis would do in his first game against the team that had just traded him, it turned out to be another former Warriors player that stole the show as Mike Dunleavy — receiving a chorus of boos — scored a game-high 24 points in just 19 minutes of play.

Without Curry and Bogut, Golden State looked like a team ready to tank the season in hopes of keeping their lottery pick — their first pick goes to Utah unless the team ends up with a top-seven pick. They were out-rebounded by the Bucks 54-35 — a decisive factor in the loss — as Luc Richard Mbah a Moute had a field day with 22 points and 17 rebounds.

Back in the East, it wouldn’t be another day without a dramatic ending to a Heat game as they barely held on to defeat Philadelphia to avoid an epic collapse. LeBron James came through again in the clutch.

From Joseph Goodman of The Miami Herald: “Say this for Friday’s game: Even when the Heat is playing some of its worst basketball of the season, it can still defeat the 76ers. The Heat led the Sixers by 29 points before nearly giving it all back in an 84-78 victory at the Wells Fargo Center. Miami (32-11) has defeated the Sixers (25-19) 10 consecutive times in the regular season and 14 of 15 times overall. That’s the good news. The bad news continues for the Heat, which managed to snap a two-game losing streak despite being outrebounded 54-42. The Heat, just 5-4 since the All-Star break, has been outrebounded in three consecutive games and plays the Magic and Dwight Howard on Sunday … “We can take some good from the second half or we can take all the bad from the second half,” said LeBron James, who finished with 29 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. “We will learn from the mistakes we had [Friday night], but that won’t take away from being on the road in a really good building and against a really good team and winning this game.” James’ clutch jumper with 1:05 left gave the Heat a six-point lead, and he made a pair of free throws with 18 seconds left to ice the victory. “It’s never good to give up a 20-something-point game, but it’s good to see when you need to and they make a game out of it that you can keep the lead and win, and we can do that,” James said.

Elsewhere…

  • The Nets went into the Amway Center without the franchise Center they hoped to have in uniform and the result was a 86-70 loss to the Magic. Dwight Howard led all scorers with 18 points and the game was never in question as New Jersey played without Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Jordan Farmar.
  • After calling their upcoming back-to-back match-up with New York “two very winnable games”, Danny Granger and the Pacers were routed 115-100 in Madison Square Garden and went down by as many as 32 points. Tyson Chandler led the way with 16 points and shut down Roy Hibbert who had four points on just 2-of-10 shooting. Linsanity has become Woodsanity.
  • The Hawks took care of the Wizards at home 102-88. Joe Johnson –no longer bothered by a sore knee — had 34 points, six rebounds and five assists. Josh Smith had 23 points, seven rebounds and eight assists, and Zaza Pachulia added 10 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. Atlanta sits one game behind Indiana in the standings.
  • After firing Nate McMillan and trading away Marcus Camby and Gerald Wallace, the Blazers defeated the Rose-less Bulls 100-89, handing Chicago its fourth home loss of the season. LaMarcus Aldridge led five scorers in double figures with 21 points. Carlos Boozer had 22 points and 14 rebounds, but the Bulls uncharacteristically allowed Portland to shoot 49% from the field including 11-of-21 from 3-point range.
  • Zach Randolph finally returned after missing all but four games, but the Grizzlies lost in overtime against the Raptors 114-100. Rudy Gay — who hit two game-winning shots the last two times against the Raptors — hit a 3-pointer in regulation to send the game into overtime but couldn’t overcome Jerryd Bayless who had 28 points, six rebounds and nine assists and Gary Forbes who contributed an unexpected 20 points.
  • The Thunder continued its recent struggles at home as the Spurs took the win 114-105. After going 17-1 at home to start the season, Oklahoma City has now lost three of the last four at Chesapeake Energy Arena. After trading away a failed experiment in Richard Jefferson, all five starters scored in double figures for San Antonio led by Tony Parker who had 25 points and seven assists while Tim Duncan had 16 points and a season-high 19 rebounds.
  • It was an ugly day for Doc Rivers who watched his son get upset in the NCAA tournament, then saw the Celtics get routed by the lowly Kings 120-95. Marcus Thornton was unconscious as he scored a season-high 35 points including five 3-pointers and four steals while Jason Thompson had 21 points and 15 rebounds. Boston — the worst rebounding team in the league — was once again out-rebounded 45-28 and allowed 68 second half points.
  • The Suns — on a three-game winning streak — hit the .500 mark for the first time this season after defeating the Pistons 109-101. Phoenix has won eight of its last 10 games and sits just two games behind the eighth seed. Steve Nash controlled the game with 17 assists while Jared Dudley led six players in double figures with 23 points along with seven rebounds.
  • Ramon Sessions made an early debut for the Lakers who defeated the Timberwolves 97-92 to hold the best home record in the league at 19-2. Sessions was productive in limited minutes with seven points and five assists as he attacked the basket and provided a spark at the point guard position that the Lakers will sorely need down the stretch. Kobe Bryant led all scorers with 28 points and shook off the loss of long-time teammate and friend Derek Fisher who was traded to the Rockets for Jordan Hill who is inactive. Kevin Love had 27 points and 15 rebounds while Nikola Pekovic added 20 points and 12 rebounds, but Minnesota fell to 1-4 since losing Ricky Rubio.