Brian Geltzeiler joins Brett Norsworthy on Fish N’ Stats in Memphis to talk NBA news. They break down the Jeremy Lin and James Harden pairing, the Lakers woes and an early look at the Western Conference Playoff picture.
Bernucca: Do injuries to Love, Nowitzki change West playoff picture?
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When we wrote last month that the Western Conference playoff picture would be filled in by the Dallas 
Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves, it was assumed that both teams would have their alpha dogs at power forward.
Now that Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Love are both out until at least December, that picture could be changing.
Nowitzki and Love both are top-10 players whose presence instantly legitimizes their teams as playoff-worthy, regardless of the other 14 players sharing a locker room and airplane with them. It’s remarkable that neither has a back injury; after all, carrying a team is a heavy load.
With Nowitzki as the focal point, the Mavericks have made the playoffs 12 straight seasons, reaching the Finals twice and winning it all once. Over those dozen years, he has been joined by a teammate at All-Star Weekend just four times – Jason Kidd, Josh Howard and Steve Nash (twice).
Love hasn’t been doing his heavy lifting as long, but it is evident he has similar strength. The team’s first All-Star since Kevin Garnett left town over five years ago, Love had the Wolves nipping at a playoff berth last season despite a roster that seemed to be trying to set an NBA record for largest collection of underperforming lottery picks.
Both teams underwent significant personnel changes in the offseason that appeared to be upgrades. You can debate how good Dallas and Minnesota may be this season. But with Nowitzki and Love as the plowhorses, neither team was going to be bad.
Now?
Put it this way: The Golden State Warriors are probably supressing some glee.
The Mavs appear to better equipped to withstand Nowitzki’s absence, which is good, because it may be longer than the six weeks that was widely reported. If you read between the lines a bit, the team said it will be six weeks before Nowitzki can resume on-court activities. You know, stuff like shooting, practicing and scrimmaging.
Let’s say Nowitzki’s rehab is accelerated by one week, which he spends resuming on-court activities. That still means his absence would last six weeks and sideline him for 16 games until an anticipated return around Dec. 1.
Preseason playoff picture: Eastern Conference
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We already told you who we believe will make the playoffs in the Western Conference. 
The picture in the Eastern Conference is a bit different.
Just like the West, the East has six teams that are locks to play in May. They are the defending champion Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets, who last season weren’t in (a) Brooklyn or (b) the playoffs.
You can find whatever real or imagined faults you’d like with those teams. The fact remains that each one has too much talent to land in the lottery.
At the other end of the spectrum are five teams that have no shot in hell at the playoffs. The Washington Wizards, Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons are pointed in the right direction but don’t have enough to compete. Based on their mismatched roster, the Orlando Magic don’t have a current direction. And the Charlotte Bobcats should be able to qualify for the NCAA Tournament.
That leaves two postseason berths for four teams: the Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors.
Let’s break down who’s playing and who’s praying.
ATLANTA: New GM Danny Ferry will keep receiving kudos for dumping Joe Johnson’s contract until the first time the Hawks are down three with a minute to go and have to throw someone the ball. There are still options – Josh Smith, Al Horford, Jeff Teague, newcomer Lou Williams – but 
none of them can create a shot or the matchup issues the way Johnson can.
Smith is in the last year of his contract and appears destined to be bounced back and forth from power forward to small forward. Also entering a contract year is point guard Devin Harris, who could be playing for his next deal and may get in the way of Teague’s development. And while the Hawks aren’t big, they aren’t overly quick, either.
Atlanta has made the playoffs five straight years, so this group knows how to get there. But trading Johnson will work as addition by subtraction only on the payroll and not on the court. He is a stud whose go-to game is going to be sorely missed.
VERDICT: Out. Keep in mind that adding a lottery pick to all that cap room isn’t such a bad deal.
CHICAGO: Yeah, we know. How could the Bulls, who finished each of the last two seasons with the best overall record, be sweating a postseason berth? Well, consider that in the 33 games last season (including playoffs) in which Derrick Rose did not play, Chicago scored 100 or more points just six times and didn’t reach 90 points 16 times. Now consider that Rose probably won’t be back until the All-Star break, when the Bulls have just 30 games remaining.
In addition to Rose’s prolonged absence, the Bench Mob underwent a serious downgrade during the 
offseason, and you have to wonder how effective complementary players such as Richard Hamilton, Vladimir Radmanovic and Marco Belinelli will be with Kirk Hinrich at the controls.
Tom Thibodeau is still the coach, which means the Bulls will still defend as well as any team. But the frontcourt foursome of Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson should be preparing for some heavy lifting until Rose returns.
VERDICT: In, and a dangerous bottom-bracket seed if Rose is right.
MILWAUKEE: The Bucks operated under the radar in the offseason because none of their moves were glitzy. But in Samuel Dalembert and Joel Przybilla, they got the centers they needed to allow their forwards to be forwards – particularly Ersan Ilyasova, who presents problems as a stretch-4 who can bang the boards, too.
A true training camp will benefit Monta Ellis, who alongside Brandon Jennings gives Milwaukee arguably the quickest backcourt in NBA history. You can decry Ellis’ volume game, but the Bucks were 12-9 with him in 
the lineup.
There’s a lot of guys playing for contracts – Ellis, Jennings, Dalembert, Mike Dunleavy – under perhaps the NBA’s most abrasive coach in Scott Skiles, who also is in the final year of his deal. That could make for a combustible situation. It says here that they win enough to put that stuff aside.
VERDICT: In, as the eighth seed.
TORONTO: The trade for Kyle Lowry was among the best offseason acquisitions of any team. Lowry’s all-around game and mental toughness will fit right in with coach Dwane Casey’s approach. Coupled with the hopeful health of solid scorers Andrea Bargnani and DeMar DeRozan and a possible strong rookie campaigns from Jonas Valanciunas and 
Terrence Ross, the Raptors could threaten 40 wins.
But as you probably figured out by now, that won’t be enough. There are still way too many question marks and inconsistency on the bench, where the roster has a handful of borderline D-League players. If Toronto can move Jose Calderon’s expiring contract for a stud, the picture could change a bit.
VERDICT: Out. Wait ’til next year.
(RELATED: Offseason report cards, team-by-team)
(RELATED: Offseason moves and analysis, team-by-team)
Chris Bernucca is a regular contributor to SheridanHoops.com. His columns appear Wednesday and Sunday during the season. You can follow him on Twitter.
Preseason playoff picture: Western Conference
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Think your team is making the playoffs in the West this season?
If you don’t live in L.A., you sure about that?
If your team is the Dallas Mavericks or Utah Jazz, you shouldn’t be so sure.
The Western Conference has six teams that are postseason certainties and four teams that are locks for the lottery. That leaves five teams vying for two spots.
The Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies and Denver Nuggets are in. Each of those teams has a depth of talent that is too big to fail.
The Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Hornets and Houston Rockets are out. The Blazers and Kings are too young, while the Hornets and Rockets aren’t even trying to compete – at least this season.
That means the Mavericks and Jazz – playoff incumbents from last season, neither of whom won a postseason game – will be trying to hold off a trio of upstarts in the Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns.
Five teams, two slots.
Who gets them? Here’s the breakdown.
DALLAS MAVERICKS: The Mavericks may be the greatest unknown quantity in the West. They conceivably could land anywhere from as high as fourth to as low as 10th. If Dirk Nowitzki decides to come to camp in shape to reclaim his status as a top-10 player and one-year rentals Chris Kaman, Elton Brand, O.J. Mayo and Darren Collison play for the team and not their next contract, Dallas could challenge for the Southwest Division title.
But Dallas also has no depth at center behind Kaman, who has missed 152 games over the last five years. The point may wind up in the hands of the erratic Delonte West given that Collison lost his starting job in Indiana last season and the perennially not ready Roddy Beaubois might be the softest player in the NBA. And five of their rotation players are 30 or older, including four starters.
Last season, the Mavs walked the tightrope of remaining competitive while planning their future. They will be taking a similar stroll this season.
VERDICT: In, but not with any bravado.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: The Warriors missed the playoffs by 13 games in a 66-game season. That seems like too much of a leap for a team whose culture – and if you think this isn’t a factor, you’re kidding yourself – includes one postseason appearance since 1994. But before you write them off, consider that the Warriors were on the fringe of the race at 18-21 before losing 18 of their last 23 games, a nosedive driven by the injured Stephen Curry and the trade of Monta Ellis for Andrew Bogut, who already was done for the season.
This campaign has a lot invested in the health of Curry and Bogut, which are no sure things. Jarrett Jack is a 
nice insurance policy for Curry, but the safety net for Bogut – who has missed 130 games over the last four years – is not as secure. The Warriors also need Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes to be serious candidates for Most Improved Player and Rookie of the Year, respectively – which they probably will.
Golden State arguably has a playoff-worthy 10-man rotation. But no team has greater health questions among its top two players. Can Curry and Bogut both play 75 games? That’s how simple it is for the Warriors.
VERDICT: Out. Too many ifs, not enough gifts.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: The Timberwolves were 21-19 in early March when rookie sensation Ricky Rubio went down with a torn ACL, triggering a total collapse that not even the broad shoulders of MVP candidate Kevin Love could bear. Rubio is not expected back until January, so it is on the frontcourt of Love, Andrei 
Kirilenko and Nikola Pekovic to keep the Wolves in the hunt. They might be up to it.
GM David Kahn’s offseason overhaul made a believer of Love, who likes that the “bad blood” – likely Michael Beasley and Darko Milicic – are out of the locker room. But there are issues in the backcourt, where J.J. Barea and Luke Ridnour have to man the point until Rubio’s return and huge question marks Brandon Roy and rookie Alexey Shved will split the 2-spot. And Derrick Williams has to play like the second pick, not the 22nd pick.
VERDICT: In. Love is the best player among these five bubble teams, and he has enough around him this time.
PHOENIX SUNS: As part of a makeover that came up short of top prize Eric Gordon, the Suns are counting on a lot of good, young players – Goran Dragic, Michael Beasley, Wesley Johnson, Markieff Morris – with very 
little collective taste of the postseason to get better. They also need one of their veterans to step forward as a leader. You have to wonder who that will be. Luis Scola? Jermaine O’Neal?
The trade of Steve Nash was more than a move toward the future. It left the Suns without a true star, which is not exactly a tried-and-true formula for making the playoffs (although Philadelphia and Denver bucked the trend recently). As a .500 team last season, Phoenix missed the playoffs. It’s hard to say they’ve gotten better, although they are moving in the right direction.
VERDICT: Out. Unless they move to Phoenix City, Ala. and play in the East.
UTAH JAZZ: By now, you’ve probably figured out that we don’t have the Jazz making the playoffs. That may seem absurd, given their postseason appearance last season and the trio of established players they added 
this summer. But they seem somewhat vulnerable at a couple of positions.
Is Marvin Williams really the answer at small forward, or is he just going to be in Gordon Hayward’s way? Can Randy Foye put up his customary numbers for a winner? Is Mo Williams that much of an upgrade over Devin Harris at point guard, or will he be watching defensive-minded Earl Watson in crunch time? And although everyone loves Utah’s collection of bigs, there are only four of them. If one of them gets hurt – or if the final year of Al Jefferson’s contract becomes a trade chip – the Jazz are woefully shallow in the frontcourt.
VERDICT: Out. The Jazz do play two of their last three games against the Wolves, though, which should be very interesting.
COMING SOON: The East’s playoff picture
(RELATED: Offseason report cards, team by team)
(RELATED: Offseason moves and analysis, team-by-team)
Chris Bernucca is a regular contributor to SheridanHoops.com. His columns appear Wednesday and Sunday during the season. You can follow him on Twitter.
In first NBA Finals, Battier doing all he can to help Heat win
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OKLAHOMA CITY – The Miami Heat’s lead was down to 4, the shot clock was at 5 and Shane Battier was about to set a screen for Dwyane Wade at the top of the key. But he slip-screened, backed up, got his hands ready, set his feet and let the ball fly.
“I was just trying to get it on the rim, to be honest with you,” explained the do-it-all forward. “The shot clock was low, (Kevin) Durant was in my face, and I was just trying to get that ball on the rim so that we could get an offensive rebound.
“The basketball gods were smiling.” 
As they have been for Battier since the moment the NBA Finals tipped off Tuesday night. Despite the fact that he hadn’t connected on four-plus 3-pointers in consecutive games in roughly five years, Battier has gotten off to a sweltering start during the Finals by knocking home 9-of-13 from distance.
Moreover, Battier has averaged 17 points against the Thunder thus far, more than the defensive demon’s combined averages of 6.0, 3.8 and 7.0 points against the Knicks, Pacers and Celtics, respectively.
In a series billed as a matchup of teams each boasting a “Big Three,” Battier has become a timely fourth scorer for the Heat and the primary reason they are headed home for Games 3, 4 and 5 of the NBA Finals with a split in their hip pocket.
After playing in over 900 NBA games, Battier is making the most of his first Finals appearance. In the process, he has helped to make life easier on Miami’s stars.
“We want to spread the floor out,” Heat forward Chris Bosh said. “But if they’re coming off of Shane, Shane practices that shot all the time. He’s a very good 3-point shooter; he’s going to let it go without hesitation.
“We need him to take those shots. We need him to take them and make them. It really opens it up. It puts pressure on the defense and makes them think about it a little bit more, and eventually we can start attacking, get free throws and layups. And I think we just did a great job of mixing everything up and just giving them different looks with the same plays.”
And as critical as Battier has been offensively, he’s been equally or more important on the defensive end.
“He’s a big part of why we’re here today and competing for a championship,” said MVP LeBron James, who is averaging 31 points through the first two games. “He’s meant a lot for our team, he’s meant a lot to me. Being able to guard guys as well as the top scorers – he did it against Carmelo Anthony, from Carmelo Anthony to David West to Paul Pierce to Brandon Bass all the way down to (Serge) Ibaka and Kevin Durant. He can guard multiple positions and allows our team to have so many options defensively.”
Although Battier hasn’t been able to stop Durant, he has made him work harder by denying him and getting into the versatile and nearly unstoppable 6-11 sniper before he touches the ball.
“He’s just too good to let him catch and operate, he is,” Battier said. “You just try to make him work a little bit for the catch and hopefully it’ll wear on him.”
And when Battier cannot deny Durant the ball, he makes sure to obscure his vision by putting his hand in Durant’s face as the three-time scoring champion launches his shot. Asked about Battier’s tactic between Games 1 and 2, Durant said, “I absolutely hate it.”
Battier – and the Heat in general – are trying to be as aggressive as possible without fouling the Thunder. However, that is easier said than done against a team like Oklahoma City, which also boasts rim attackers Russell Westbrook and James Harden and thrives at drawing fouls on a regular basis.
“It’s a fine line,” Battier said. “Every game is different because you have to understand how the refs are calling the game, you have to understand the players you’re playing against. These guys are elite foul-drawers, so you really have to stay disciplined and concentrate really every possession, because if you have a mental lapse, they’re going to shoot free throws. That’s how this team really, really beats you. You have to just have amazing discipline mentally against elite foul-drawers.”
If Battier can continue to make his phenomenal, focused and driven play from the opening two games even close to a regularity throughout this series, Miami instantly becomes much, much more potent than it had previously been in the playoffs. If anything is certain, it’s that make or miss, Battier will keep shooting the basketball.
“It’s the Finals,” said Battier. “I’m not saving any shots for Summer League – I’m too old for that anymore. Like all the shooters on the team said, ‘Just let it fly, let it fly.’”
With one win down and three to go, Battier and his teammates also are aware that they are still a long way from their ultimate goal.
“It’s a long series, and after Game 1 the hyperbole was that ‘The Heat had no idea what to do with the speed of OKC,’” Battier said. “I don’t know what the storyline is going to be for Game 2, but we know that every game is its own beast and you have to play amazingly disciplined and tough to win the Finals.”
Jeremy Bauman is a 2011 graduate of Indiana University and the newest writer for SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter.
