StatBox Playoff Breakdown- Grit & grind Grizzlies begin with defense and end with victories

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It’s no fun to talk about the struggled of the hurting, reeling, futile Chicago Bulls. They shot roughly 25 percent and scored 65 points without three leading players (if you include Derrick Rose). It almost seems like the Heat feel bad for the Bulls. A more interesting story is of a long-overlooked franchise seizing its window of opportunity to advance further than it ever has before: the hard-nosed Memphis Grizzlies.

Marc GasolWith Russell Westbrook out for Oklahoma City, Memphis knows it can move on to the conference finals for the first time if it defends Kevin Durant decently and plays solid all-around defense. And that’s what they’re doing. Memphis is also the only team to not lose on its home floor this postseason, a streak now up to seven after its 103-97 overtime win over OKC in Monday night’s Game 4. The Grizzlies now lead the series 3-1 and are in great shape to make the NBA’s semifinal round.

Memphis allowed just three points in OT on Monday, and came back from a 17-point deficit early to force the extra session. One huge reason why the Grizzlies are in this advantageous position is its defense of Durant. ESPN Stats & Info pointed out that Durant was 2-for-13 shooting in the fourth quarter and OT and 0-for 7 when Tayshaun Prince guarded him. Prince’s acquisition is one of the several reasons why the Rudy Gay trade was such a success, as outlined in a previous StatBox column.

I wrote before the series that Durant would have to have an other-worldly performance for Oklahoma City to defeat Memphis, and he delivered that over the first two games of the series. But Lionel Hollins and Memphis set its sights on curtailing Durant, and that effort has been undeniably successful. Look at these averages:

Durant Minutes Shots FG % Points Reb Assists FTA
Games 1-2 43.5 23.5 51.1 35.5 13 7.5 11
Games 3-4 47 23 41.3 26 9 6 6
KD hasn't been the same in games 3 and 4.

KD hasn’t been the same in games 3 and 4.

Despite playing for virtually the same amount of time and putting up basically the same amount of field goals, there’s no doubt that Durant has been less affective these past few games as opposed to the pair of games in Oklahoma City. His field goal percentage is a full 10 points lower, and his scoring average has dipped nearly 10 points as well. The rebounds, assists and trips to the free throw line have gone down as well, which can only be attributed to strong defense.

Memphis was able to come back to force overtime in Game 4 by allowing just 38 points in the second half, and a lot of that had to do with Marc Gasol’s exceptional defensive play. The Defensive Player of the Year probably didn’t care about only being named to the All-NBA Defensive Second Team, but he played like one pretty angry grizzly bear on Monday night, pulling down 11 rebounds, blocking six shots and altering several others (not to mention deterring OKC from driving to the hoop, which shows in Durant’s decrease in free throw attempts per game as shown above).

With Durant, Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins in the frontcourt, Oklahoma City isn’t used to being at a disadvantage inside. But not only did Memphis outscore OKC 44-30 in the paint in Game 4, the Grizzlies were plus-seven in the turnover battle (15 to just eight for Memphis) and plus-eight (18-10) in points off those turnovers.

Mike Conley (this week’s regional Sports Illustrated cover boy) only shot 7-for-21 from the field, but was 4-for-10 from three and only committed one turnovers to four by his OKC counterpart Reggie Jackson.

“We are a team that just plays hard and doesn’t quit,” Memphis Coach Lionel Hollins said after the game. “We scratch. We claw. They said grit and grind. I don’t know what the heck that means, but we go out and we just battle. We compete. We’re not the most talented team that’s in the playoffs when we started out. We’re not the most talented team that’s left in the playoffs. But we go and compete.”

Prince and Tony Allen have played standout defense and Zach Randolph has been his usual force inside. Memphis may not have the most talent in the Western Conference, but they’re playing the best defense and aren’t really turning the ball over. Those are two traits that winners possess. so it should come as no surprise that the “Grit & Grind” Grizzlies are currently winning more than ever before.

 Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

Bernucca: Who is stepping up in the postseason?

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Curry-sportsillustratedOne of the most intriguing elements of the NBA playoffs is what the spotlight reveals about certain players – especially those who weren’t expected to be in the spotlight at all.

We expect established superstars such as LeBron James and Kevin Durant to welcome the pressure of the postseason and elevate their play. That is part of the reason they are among the game’s best players.

It is also not that surprising to see very good players such as Stephen Curry and Mike Conley lift their games. The only doubts we may have had were created by the fact that their previous postseason experience was limited.

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StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Knicks’ guards key big run and assertive Conley guides Grizzlies

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Tuesday night’s games were all about guard play and righting a set of wrongs from Game 1. The Knicks’ guards didn’t do enough to overshadow the strong play of Indiana’s frontcourt, but Pablo Prigioni helped New York rectify that problem during a historic fourth quarter run. And Memphis needed a boost from Mike Conley after a subpar Game 1 performance, and Conley redeemed himself during the Grizzlies’ huge Tuesday night road win. Let’s discuss these themes as part of the StatBox Playoff Breakdown:

Knicks exploit backcourt advantage
Prigioni featured imageAt the outset of the series, I wrote that both the Knicks and Pacers have advantages they will need to exploit in order to advance to the conference finals. Indiana’s big men led the team to a big Game 1 road win, but it was New York’s guard play that gave the Knicks a resounding 105-79 Game 2 win on Tuesday night.

While the Knicks had an incredible six turnovers all game as a team, and finally got a relatively efficient shooting night from Carmelo Anthony, the key Indiana trio of Paul George, David West and Roy Hibbert combined for 11 of the team’s 21, seven of them from George himself! The turnovers and dip in production from the Pacers’ best players were key factors in their loss.

Pacers Frontcourt FG % Points TO FTA
Game 1 50 53 9 15
Game 2 50 39 11 8

The Knicks’ three-guard lineup of Pablo Prigioni, Raymond Felton and Iman Shumpert paid dividends in Game 2, after an average first game. It was Prigioni and Felton who helped key a 30-2 run in the third and fourth quarters to turn this contest into a laugher.

“I think I was trying to make a statement,” said Shumpert. “I just wanted to win this game real bad. We needed this game.”

Besides for the volume-shooting enigma J.R. Smith, Shumpert, Prigioni and Felton were guards who were instrumental in New York’s bounce-back win. Look at what those three did in Game 2 compared to Sunday’s series opener:

Knicks Key Guards FG % 3 FG % Points Assists Rebounds TO
Game 1 50 40 29 10 6 4
Game 2 66.7 71.4 39 10 12 1

Since it will be hard to deal with Indiana’s size, the Knicks will have to compensate with top-level play from their starting guards in order to win three more games in this series.

Memphis needs Conley the Conquerer
Mike Conley
In the food chain of NBA point guards, there’s no question that Russell Westbrook was the predator to the prey who is Mike Conley. Exit Westbrook and enter Reggie Jackson and a huge advantage for Memphis in this series. If the Grizzlies would get the Alpha Conley in this series, they would have a good chance of winning it. Alpha Conley, or Conley the Conquerer, did not show up in Game 1, but he sure did in Tuesday night’s Game 2 win.

“We needed to have somebody on the perimeter do something,” said Memphis Head Coach Lionel Hollins. He started getting to the basket a little bit and scored some big jump shots late.”

Conley was far from his assertive self in Game One, but really took the intiative in Game 2 and really willed the Grizzlies to a 99-93 win.

Conley FG % Points Assists Rebounds TO
Game 1 33.3 13 3 5 2
Game 2 50 26 9 10 2

“The last game, we didn’t execute down the stretch, didn’t get the stops when we needed them and tonight we did vice-versa,” Conley said. “We got the stops, got the rebounds, made big shots and free throws.”

Conley, whom Tony Allen called a top-five point guard after the game, can talk about the stops and the rebounds all he wants, but it was his assertiveness and overall conquistadorian nature that guided Memphis to an enormous win that could set them up quite well for the duration of this series. If Conley continues,

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Melo hurting Knicks, Pacers defense perseveres and Thunder in trouble

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Can a team win with its star player only scoring one point per shot? It’s not going so well over the past few games for Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks. Which players drive the Pacers in its incredibly volatile series against Atlanta? Can Oklahoma City win with Reggie Jackson as its second option on offense. We’re going behind the numbers from Wednesday night’s trio of Game Fives in today’s StatBox playoff breakdown.

Knicks won’t win with VoluMelo
Carmelo_Anthony
The Knicks let a veteran team like the Celtics hang around on Wednesday in Boston’s 92-86 win and gain some confidence going into Friday night’s Game 6. The Knicks shot under 40 percent, and a lot of that has to do with the inefficient play of its best player.

The New York Knicks have a superstar player in Carmelo Anthony when he’s an efficient shooter and passer out of double teams. There seems to only a slight difference in Anthony’s performance in wins and losses during the regular season, but it’s enough of a difference to point out some tendencies.

Carmelo Anthony Shots FG % 3 FG % Points Rebounds FTA FT %
Wins 21.8 46.5 39.6 29 6.7 7.5 83.5
Losses 23.2 41.4 34.1 28 7.2 8 81.9

In losses, Anthony takes more shots at a pedestrian percentage across the board. The higher rebounding and free throw attempt numbers are due to his increased minutes in losses (39.2) rather than wins (36.1). What the Knicks have seen from its best player over the last three games is something/someone I call VoluMelo. He’s become a volume shooter who’s basketball-monopolizing approach hurts the team.

It doesn’t take a mathematical savant to realize that a player isn’t being efficient when he’s taking as many shots as the points he scores. In the last three games, Anthony scored 84 points on 84 shots. That’s really, really bad, considering shots are worth two or three points and there are free throws, as well. Anthony scored 70 points on 53 shots in the first two games, and even that’s not amazing.

“I told you from Game 1 that this wasn’t going to be a breeze. It wasn’t going to be a walk in the park. Them guys were going to fight and they’re showing some fight right now,” Anthony said. “They threw a couple punches at us now and it’s time for us to do the same.”

The way Anthony is shooting, he seems to be throwing a punch or two at his own team. Until New York gets Melo instead of VoluMelo, the Knicks are going to be in deep trouble against the Celtics.

Panicked Pacers persevere
Roy Hibbert, Al Horford
After squandering a 2-0 series lead, the Indiana Pacers were panicking. But in Wednesday’s Game 5, Indiana went back to what got them the Eastern Conference’s third seed: elite level defense and other-worldly efficiency from the frontcourt.

It was a defensive tour-de-force in the Pacers’ 106-83 win, limiting the Hawks to 33.3 percent shooting. Josh Smith, Al Horford and Jeff Teague combined to shoot 13- for-46 from the field. On the other hand, the Indiana frontcourt trio of Roy Hibbert, David West and Paul George shot 21-for-31 as part of a Pacer offense that shot 50.7 percent from the floor.

“This is the first time that I felt like we’ve played true defense in this series,” West said. “I thought everyone came in and stayed with the game plan in terms of being aggressive, and our hands were active and we just made plays on the defensive end.”

As you’ll see in this nice info-graphic, the Pacers go as far as Hibbert, West and George take them:

Pacer Frontcourt FG % Points Rebounds FTA Plus/Minus
Game 1 39 52 28 21 43
Game 2 48.6 49 18 19 45
Game 3 42.4 42 24 16 -20
Game 4 41.5 50 25 15 -8
Game 5 67.7 63 24 23 64

When the trio got aggressive and went to the free throw line at least 19 times, they won. Whenever the players had a positive plus/minus, Indiana won. If the Pacers want to close out the Hawks in Game 6 and win the first road game of the series, you’ll know where to look for Indiana’s production.

Are the thin Thunder in trouble?
Reggie_Jackson
Russell Westbrook is injured. James Harden is on the other team. So who’s the second option for the Oklahoma City Thunder besides Kevin Durant? Reggie Jackson took the second most shots on the team in Wednesday’s 107-100 loss to Houston that was troublesome for the West’s second seed top seed to say the very least.

Kevin Martin shot 1-for-10 and the OKC bench scored a total of 19 points on 23 shots. Even without Jeremy Lin on Wednesday, Houston went eight deep and got a combined 32 points from afterthoughts Francisco Garcia and Patrick Beverley. During the regular season, Jackson took 4.6 shots per game. During the postseason, that average is up to 10 attempts per contest and rising. Jackson is not a second scoring option for a playoff team. It’s that simple.

Serge Ibaka shot 6-for-14 in the Game 5 defeat, and he and Martin need to many more touches if the Thunder plan on advancing to the second round against either the Clippers or Grizzlies. If not, the team’s management may be kicking itself for sacrificing its short-term depth with Harden.

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Lopez keeps Nets alive, Atlanta’s turnaround and Westbrook’s replacement

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Opportunity doesn’t knock twice. For the Nets, a banged up Bulls team gave the Nets a chance to stay in this series. Thanks to Brook Lopez, Brooklyn is still alive. Home playoff games afforded the Hawks the chance to reverse their fortunes, but how drastically it turned this series around is astounding. And who will get the opportunity to shine for the Thunder in Russell Westbrook’s absence? All this and more in today’s StatBox playoff breakdown.