StatBox Playoff Breakdown: Houston’s blown chance, mistakes haunt Hawks and a lacking Lakers star

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If you enjoy the weekly StatBox column that analytically breaks down some of the NBA’s most pressing and important topic, you’re in luck. Every Tuesday through Thursday during the postseason, the StatBox is expanding into playoff game analysis. You’ll not only find out why each team won and lost, but how different statistical trends can play out over the course of the series and the playoffs as a whole. Today: Houston’s wasted opportunity, mistakes thwarting Atlanta’s chances at victory and one Laker star’s alarming performance.

One game Houston would want back

rockets small logoRoad wins have not come easy in the first round of the playoffs. It’s taken one outstanding defensive performance from the Bulls and a perfect offensive game from the Warriors to get it done. Houston erased a late 15-point deficit on Wednesday against Oklahoma City and got a transcendant performance from Patrick Beverly and still failed to close out a road win against the Thunder.

Houston did a really good job of going through the checklist of teams that pull off playoff upsets. Consider:

  • Oklahoma City shot under 44 percent from the field. They averaged 48.1 percent shooting during the regular season. But Houston shot under 40 percent in its 105-102 loss.
  • Houston was an astounding plus-17 on the glass, out-rebounding OKC 57-40. ESPN points out that the Thunder/Sonics franchise hadn’t won a postseason game despite having at least 15 fewer boards than its opponent since 1996.
  • The Rockets hit 10 3-pointers, hit 20 free throws and won the points in the paint by a 50-30 margin and still lost. That is due, in part, to its 16 turnovers (to OKC’s 12).
  • With Jeremy Lin out for the second half, Patrick Beverly scored 16 points to go with 12 rebounds and six assists. Chances are they won’t get that type of unexpected production again.

All these things went right for the Houston Rockets, and the Thunder managed to get the win in Game 2 anyway. That bodes well for OKC in this series.

Too many mistakes haunt Hawks

Josh SmithAgainst a team so fundamentally sound like the Pacers, making mistakes can kill a team’s chances. First, let’s consider everything Atlanta did right in Wednesday night’s Game 2. They shot the ball really well, and put up enough points to probably win. Consider the Hawks’ production against Indiana’s regular season defensive averages:

NBA PLAYOFFS FG % 3 FG % Points
Indiana Season Average 42 34.7 90.7
Hawks Game 2 49.4 39.1 98

To shoot that well against the Pacers is rather impressive. The problem: not enough assertiveness from its star players, poor defense and no offensive discipline, among others. Josh Smith should shoot more than 10 times, especially when Kyle Korver and Devin Harris take the same amount of field goals. This could be because of Paul George’s defense (he led the NBA in defensive win shares, unlike Marc Gasol), but Smith is playing not only for his team, but for a new max-level contract as well.

As for the team’s defense? Indiana shot 47.1 percent from the field and 40 percent from deep. The Hawks allowed 29 Pacer free throws and shot 11 of 20 from the line themselves, an awful 55 percent. Atlanta also turned it over 14 times. These are critical mistakes you can’t make against the Pacers, and that’s why Indiana is off to a 2-0 series lead.

Superman simply subpar for Lakers
Dwight Howard
Dwight Howard took fewer shots in Wednesday night’s Game 2 loss to the Spurs than Metta World Peace. Howard also took fewer shots than Pau Gasol and even Steve Blake! Perhaps Superman was too busy griping about his supposed Defensive Player of the Year “snub” to notice that the Lakers desperately need him to be a superstar against the Spurs without Kobe Bryant in the mix. It should come as no surprise that Howard was a -14 in the game, tied for the worst mark on both teams in a 102-91 San Antonio triumph.

Dwight Howard Shots Points FG %
In Wins 11.9 19.2 60.1
In Losses 9.2 14.4 54.1

Howard’s 12 shots was right around his season average, which is a pretty big problem considering that Bryant isn’t there to take the scoring load. For someone who thinks he deserves a max-level contract this offseason, his lack of assertiveness in a playoff series is beyond alarming. Unfortunately, this is probably who Dwight Howard is. Uncomfortable with taking the lead role, satisfied with playing second fiddle. If the Lakers are satisfied with this type of performance, perhaps they’re meant to have Howard in the fold for years to come.

“It is frustrating,” Howard said of the San Antonio defense. “I just have to trust my teammates to make shots. On whatever they do defensively, I have to be aware of my arms and try not to get tangled up.”

That doesn’t sound like a max-level leader. That sounds like a helpless man, defeated after falling short while being thrust into a leading role. This epitomizes Dwight Howard. This epitomizes the sorry and sad future of the Los Angeles Lakers.

Shlomo Sprung loves advanced statistics and the way they explain what happens on the court. He is also the web editor of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle and a writer for Football.com. A 2011 graduate of Columbia University’s Journalism School, he has previously worked for the New York Knicks, The Sporting News, Business Insider and other publications. His website is SprungOnSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter.

Six Analytical Reasons The Lakers Have Improved This Month

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Players, coaches and management often talk about the “little things” that win basketball games.

These standard cliches and generic quotes lead to the rolling of many eyeballs around the world, but minute adjustments can actually make a difference in a team’s results and could even help change the public’s perception of a team.

Case in point: The 2012-2013 edition of the Los Angeles Lakers.

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What if Thomas Robinson was named Metta World Peace?

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When the NBA is doling out suspensions for flagrant fouls and fights, Commissioner David Stern has said that a player’s previous track record factors into determining the penalty.

For example, during a nationally televised regular-season game last season, Los Angeles Lakers forward Metta World Peace received a seven-game suspension for elbowing James Harden in the head, flooring  the Oklahoma City Thunder guard and leaving him with a concussion.

World Peace was clearly caught up in the emotion of the moment – which doesn’t excuse his actions in any way. He had just scored and the crowd at Staples Center was going wild. He thumped his chest as began to return downcourt and initially appeared willing to just shove his way past Harden, who was pretty much an innocent bystander to that point.

Then World Peace decided that all of his physical posturing wasn’t enough and drilled Harden in the ear with a hard elbow. He wasn’t looking at Harden when he hit him, leaving open the absurd possibility offered in his defense that his actions were accidental. What it really looked like was his initial contact with Harden allowed him to line up his victim and clobber him without facing him.

The NBA found an easy way to remove any doubt that World Peace’s actions were clearly intentional and had no place in the game. It simply considered the source.

This was a guy who smashed a $150,000 video camera after a loss in his hometown of New York. This was a guy who once wandered onto the Miami Heat’s bench to deliver verbal jabs, incurring the wrath of Pat Riley.

And of course, this was a guy who was the primary protagonist in the NBA’s darkest moment, running into the stands to assault a fan during a Pacers-Pistons game and triggering a frightening riot that forever will be known as “The Malice at the Palace.”

World Peace is a dirty player, and that’s OK. The league is filled with dirty players. John Stockton, one of the all-time great point guards and a generally beloved player, was a dirty player.

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Five reasons to feel positive about the Los Angeles Lakers

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I need to limit the reasons to feel positive about the Lakers to just five? Well now I’m simply going to feel as if I’m short-changing them. Anyways, all narcissistic, ego-fueling Lakers comments aside, there are many reasons to look at the upcoming NBA season as one that could end with a parade running through downtown Los Angeles.

But if there’s anything we’ve learned from professional sports, it’s that things rarely turn out the way you expect. There are plenty of reasons why the Lakers might not be successful in reaching their ultimate goal this season.

For now, we will dwell on the top five reasons why Lakers fans should feel optimistic after consecutive years of postseason disappointment.

1. Eddie Jordan’s Princeton offense

Last season, the Lakers struggled immensely on the offensive end. They routinely looked like a team without an identity, which translated to looking like a chicken without a head.

Heading into this season, coach Mike Brown decided to hire a little help in the form of assistant Eddie Jordan, who has helped Brown and the staff implement the Princeton offense.

Jordan and his system will utilize Los Angeles’ greatest strengths to improve their offensive capabilities. Some of those include their high basketball intelligence, experience and overall versatility. A more collected and organized group of Lakers on offense could spell doom for 28 other North American cities. And the Clippers.

2. Metta World Peace should bounce back

After coming into the 2011-12 season out of shape and out of touch with reality (bizarre name changes often have that effect), the erstwhile Ron Artest struggled to put together anything close to resembling his former All-Star set of skills. A late-season suspension didn’t help matters much, either.

But during an offseason where he faced myriad amnesty rumors and trade speculation, World Peace worked himself back into the best shape of his career.

Now on a roster that leaves him virtually forgotten, MWP is free to leave his big, broad shoeprint on the upcoming season in an impressive way. He will most likely be overlooked by many teams, leaving him the opportunity to fly under the radar while being the team’s best perimeter defensive player and an occasional scoring threat from outside, two things an aging roster filled with superstars will need.

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SH Blog: Brandon Roy set to make NBA return, Kobe likes Princeton offense

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Just three seasons ago, shooting guard Brandon Roy, aka “The Natural”,  was regarded as one of the most well-rounded players in the NBA. He was a natural leader for the Portland Trailblazers and displayed the type of game that was rarely seen in any player: a player with no distinct flaw.

Roy could do it all, and he received the highest of praise from fans and players alike. Here is a direct quote from Kobe Bryant when he was asked to name the toughest player to guard in the league: Roy 365 days, seven days a week. Roy has no weaknesses in his game.” Ron Artest even claimed that Roy was a better player than Bryant .

All of it, of course, came to a crashing halt when Roy’s degenerative knees were too much for him to deal with, causing him to retire at the ripe age of 27. It was a sad moment for the NBA to lose a player of his caliber.

Lucky for us (and unfortunately for the rest of the league) Roy has apparently had successful knee treatment and is ready to come out of retirement to become a high-impact player again for the Minnesota Timberwolves – the team that originally drafted him. See what Roy had to say in today’s press conference, along with other relevant NBA news:

  • Brandon Roy is set to play for the Minnesota Timberwolves and shared his excitement about returning to the NBA, from Ben Golliver: “I’m excited to be back in the NBA and be a part of this organization. It was a tough season to sit out but after thinking about it, I wanted to start preparing myself to make a comeback. I didn’t want it to be an overnight decision. So I decided to start working out for about two months before I would make my official decision to come back. After two months of pushing myself, my body felt really great, it responded really well. After doing a procedure down in Los Angeles, Regenicon (sp.?), an injection, I decided to reach out to some teams and let them know I was ready to return. I got a chance to work out in Los Angeles with coach Bill Bayno and David was there and we had a chance to go to lunch and talk. I knew this was a place that I really wanted to be a part of. Not just with David but coach Adelman, the pieces they have here. I wanted to be part of a team that I could assist and really take that next step. I’m really excited to be here, my wife is here with me, we’re excited to being a part of this community and we’re excited to getting out, connecting with the fans, and putting a great team out there on the floor to give them something to cheer about.”
  • Kobe Bryant is very intrigued with the idea of running the Princeton offense for the Lakers next season, according to Adrian Wojnarowski: “It’s a great offense,” Bryant told Yahoo! Sports. “It’s exactly what we need. It takes us back to being able to play by making reads and reacting to defenses. It takes a great deal of communication, but that’s where we’re at our best: Reading and reacting as opposed to just coming down and calling sets. Calling sets make you vulnerable. ”There’s so many threats, so many options, it’s very tough to defend. Against the type of defenses that teams play nowadays, they load up on one side and are constantly coming with help from the weak side. The Princeton offense makes it very, very tough to lock in on one particular player. From my experience, those types of principles – ball movement, changing sides on the floor, everybody being involved – those are championship principles. That’s championship DNA.”
  • Orlando Magic and Dallas Mavericks have talked about a Dwight Howard deal, and the two teams will likely meet again, according to Mike Fisher: Mavs GM Donnie Nelson and Magic GM Orlando GM Rob Hennigan visited last week about a Dwight Howard trade and “will probably talk again,” Nelson tells FOXSportsSouthwest.com. Meanwhile, Dwight and the Magic seem done visiting. Does this move Dwight-to-Dallas closer to the front burner? Or is is simply a step towards Dallas becoming the favorite to sign the disgruntled superstar center next summer? The Magic’s dealings with Dwight Howard continue to swirl downward, with various outlets reporting that last week he reiterated to management his desire to escape Orlando. And the Dallas Mavericks are in position to accommodate him. Sometime.  But while Howard has allegedly been assured by some inside the Orlando organization that his wish will be granted — with the Nets, Lakers and Mavs topping his wishlist — the Magic are wisely showing no urgency to make a bad deal.”
  • Nate Robinson will play for the Chicago Bulls next season, according to CSN: “The Bulls agreed on a contract with free-agent guard Nate Robinson, the team announced Tuesday afternoon. The seven-year veteran spent last season with the Warriors, where he averaged 11.2 points and 4.5 assists in just over 23 minutes per game. In the Warriors’ final two games of 2012, Robinson registered 28 points and eight assists against the Clippers, and 30 points and seven assists against the Spurs.”
  • The Golden State Warriors have re-signed Brandon Rush to a contract, according to Matt Steinmetz: “The Warriors made it official on Tuesday, re-signing restricted free agent Brandon Rush. According to Rush’s agent, Mark Bartelstein, his client signed for two years and $8 million. The second year is a player option for Rush. The signing caps a busy two days for the Warriors and likely puts the finishing touches on the offseason. Golden State’s roster currently sits at 15 players, the league maximum.
  • Carmelo Anthony is in good terms with former coach Mike D’Antoni thanks to an elevator encounter, from Marc Berman: “The Olympics have served Anthony well in the public-relations department, and he seems to have started patching things up with former Knicks coach Mike D’Antoni, who resigned March 14 amid what appeared to be an irreparable feud with the star forward. When the Olympic Team gathered for training camp in Las Vegas on July 5, Anthony said there was potential for an uncomfortable situation. Anthony and D’Antoni, Team USA’s top assistant under Mike Krzyzewski, had not spoken since the resignation and were stuck alone in an elevator on Day 1. “I was on the elevator and he was coming onto the elevator,’’ Anthony said. “We didn’t have much of a conversation. Then we walked to the meeting, then talked about it. It could have been an awkward moment, but it never was.’’ Playing for D’Antoni again has been free of controversy. Anthony thinks D’Antoni’s speedball system is perfect for this squad.
  • D’Antoni may be intrigued with the idea of coaching for a college team, according to Dan Bickley: “D’Antoni, 61, never envisioned himself as a college coach. He can be stubborn and headstrong, and he badly wanted to prove his system could work in the NBA. But in the process of taking his son on college visits, his perspective began to change. ”You think about it,” D’Antoni said. “You look at it and think, ‘Oh, that could be fun.’ One thing I do know from taking my son around is that anytime you step on a college campus, you feel energy. You feel an excitement that’s not there, normally, where the business (of basketball) takes over. And obviously, when you feel the excitement; things go through your head.”
  • Tyson Chandler discussed how unhappy he was to be overlooked by coaches for the All-Defensive team at the conclusion of last season, from Berman: “What hurt Chandler is that the All-Defense teams are voted by coaches. Chandler figures by now coaches have seen what he brings on the court on the defensive end after winning a championship in Dallas in 2011 and leading the Knicks into the playoffs. “I was surprised,’’ Chandler told The Post. “I think it was ridiculous. It just shows – the coaches vote for that. I don’t know if they’re really paying attention on what they’re voting on. I don’t t know if they just mark down the names. I don’t understand how I can win Defensive Player of the Year by the media and get second team. The good thing is I get to play against them next year and show them why I should’ve been Defensive Player of Year and show them why I should be on the first team.’’
  • The Cavaliers are looking to add some small forwards on their roster and could go after Carlos Delfino and C.J. Miles, according to Terry Pluto: “They are shopping for a small forward, and it’s not simply to replace Alonzo Gee. The Cavs need a couple of small forwards. Gee is a free agent, but he’s restricted. That means the team can match any offer sheet — and that’s why Gee has not received one. Odds are, he will come to terms here. 2. But they still need someone else,and they are looking at unrestricted free agents Carlos Delfino and C.J. Miles. Delfino is 6-6, 230 pounds and averaged 9.0 points and 3.9 rebounds for Milwaukee in 2011-12. He has been in the league for seven years, and is mostly a 3-point specialist. Nearly 50 percent of his shots from beyond the arc.”
  • Miles may be leaning towards signing with the L.A. Lakers, according to Brian T. Smith: “Unrestricted free agent small forward C.J. Miles has narrowed his options down to a few teams, a league source told The Salt Lake Tribune on Tuesday, and the longtime Jazzman is drawing serious interest from the Los Angeles Lakers. The 6-foot-6, 222-pound Miles could make a decision during the next 2-3 days. If he signs with the Lakers, the source said, it’ll likely be a one- or two-year deal via Los Angeles’ mini mid-level exception. Miles, 25, has already met with Dallas and Cleveland since free agency started July 1.
  • Unbeknownst to most of the world, there is apparently a “Raja Bell saga” going on in Salt Lake City, according to Smith: “The Raja Bell saga goes on. The Salt Lake Tribune learned Monday that Bell has not accepted a buyout with the Jazz, despite the veteran guard saying July 8 a verbal agreement had been reached between the sides and only formalities remained. ”We’ve been given the greenlight by Utah to go ahead and find something that works for us. We’ve agreed to the terms,” Bell said in July. “So I think it’s safe to say now we are in the market again and we’re entertaining our options at this point.”
  • Elton Brand took some time to describe Chris Kaman in detail, from his game to his love for nature, from The Dallas Morning News: “He can shoot the mid-range, but he is a true back to the basket center. You don’t have too many of those in this league. He can finish with his left hand or right hand. He’s a big presence rolling to the rim as a 7-footer who can finish. Dirk (Nowitzki) shoots it out to the three-point line so he’s going to really enjoy playing with him. Defensively, he works hard. He’s in the right place at the right time. He’s a big pickup as a free agent for the team. I have so many stories about him, but one is he was trying to get me to go hunting. He kind of chastised me because I didn’t want to get on the boat and hunt an alligator. That’s who he is. He’s quirky, but he’s fun loving. He likes to hunt and be in nature.”
  • Matt Barnes was arrested for an outstanding misdemeanor traffic warrant on Monday. He is also under investigation for threatening a police officer, from The Associated Press: “Manhattan Beach police Lt. Steve Tobias said Barnes was arrested late Monday as he was walking on a busy thoroughfare in the city about 20 miles southwest of downtown Los Angeles. Bail was set at $51,000. Tobias said Barnes wasn’t cooperative when he was stopped by police and was going to be booked for allegedly threatening the officer, which is a felony. Authorities said the warrant was for driving on a suspended license.”