Tweet of the Day: Spencer Hawes

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College football’s “Rivalry Weekend” is a great distraction from Black Friday sales and waiting in long lines at stores.

The last and final weekend of the college football regular season is oftentimes the most important weekend of the year for some fans—as their team faces their most hated rival.

Philadelphia 76ers center Spencer Hawes knows what it’s all about. As a college athlete, he played for the Washington Huskies. This week the Huskies face off against the in-state rival Washington State Cougars.

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Fantasy Spin: September 24, 2012 – Part II

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Atlantic Division Fantasy Preview (Part II)

For the introduction to this article and our comments on the Nets and Knicks, see Part I.

sixers small logoPhiladelphia 76ers

Another case where last year’s numbers mean very little. The team is now built around the very position (center) that was a constant problem.

If you compare Offensive Efficiency (101.7) to Defensive Efficiency(96.3), the Sixers’ differential of 5.1 was fifth-best in the entire NBA. If you had no idea they were that good, you aren’t alone.

Best to Own

Andrew Bynum A “third banana” with the Lakers who gets his first starring role in Philly. Given that nobody on the Sixers will get as many touches as Kobe Bryant did, Bynum should put up career numbers (over 20 PTS and 12 REB per game).

Solid Contributors

Jrue Holiday Still has room to improve. At 22, in his fourth year, he’s another example of how deep the PG position is this year.

Thaddeus Young Thought he’d do more last year and he will, if he ever gets 30+ minutes per game. Doug Collins likes his energy off the bench, so even though he “deserves” to start he may technically be the sixth man.

Spencer Hawes Expected to add PF eligibility, as Collins imagines Hawes playing the “Pau Gasol role” alongside Bynum.

Fantasy Sleepers

Evan Turner Being counted on to step up in his third season and while he’s no Andre Iguodala yet, Turneraveraged 12,7 PTS, 6.7 REB and 3.0 AST as a starter and gained valuable experience in 12 playoff games.

Arnett Moultrie is a fascinating rookie who averaged better than 16 & 1o last year for Mississippi State. His ankle injury comes at a bad time, but he could develop into a role player once healthy.

Players to Avoid

Jason Richardson Might be the starter, but he’s four years older than Nick Young and there’s a disturbing downward trend in his stats. J-Rich shot just 40.8% from the floor and a putrid 59.4% from the line last year

Lavoy Allen Though he was a pleasant surprise last year as an unheralded rookie, minutes are unlikely to increase.

Kwame Brown Was added before the Bynum trade, which knocked him down the depth chart. Now in a battle with Allen for a backup role.

Royal Ivey Technically the backup PG, but may not be in the regular rotation. There’s talk of Evan Turner playing some PG with the second unit.

High Risk/High Reward

Nick Young Could come off the bench firing, the way Louis Williams did the last few years. Might even become a starter.

Dorell Wright On a new team, in a new role, we don’t know exactly what to expect.  If Turner does spend time at the point, Wright may get more minutes than most SF backups.

celtics small logoBoston Celtics

Fantasy owners know exactly what they are getting with the Celtics. They play tenacious defense and are methodical with the ball. Doc Rivers allows his starters to play big minutes and keeps his bench short.

Boston isn’t the only defensive team on this list. The whole Atlantic Division tends to play low-scoring games. The Nets’ inability to stop anyone last year was due mostly to a series of untimely injuries.

Best to Own

Kevin Garnett As Jeff pointed out in his great series on strategy, KG has gradually become an afterthought  in keeper leagues. That makes him exactly the type of undervalued player who can help you win this year.

Solid Contributors

Rajon Rondo Doesn’t hit free throws or 3-pointers, an unusual profile for a point guard. If you can afford those category hits and make up for them elsewhere, Rondo

Paul Pierce Another who has fallen out of favor in keeper leagues but still maintains value this year.

Brandon Bass Nothing spectacular; shows up every night and does his job. I’ve had a lot of success with PF-C who shoot 80% from the line and have a decent A/T ratio.

Jason Terry Without a lot of depth at PG to begin the season, Terry will play both guard spots. Like many of his teammates, he isn’t a target in dynasty leagues — unless you’re trying to win right now.

Courtney Lee While he won’t be as productive as other starting SG around the league, fits his new role well.

Fantasy Sleepers

Jeff Green Sure to be overlooked in many draft rooms after missing an entire season with a heart problem. The  4-year, $36 million contract suggests the Celtics aren’t concerned about his health, and his versatility allows him to back up at both SF and PF.

Players to Avoid

Darko Milicic Has been added as the probable backup to Garnett. Even if he does see unexpected playing time, poor FT% cancels out BLK and REB.

Fab Melo A big rookie with a great name, but the Milicic signing all but guarantees this will be a year of gaining experience.

Chris Wilcox At least on my radar as a possible backup C until they added Darko. Now he’s irrelevant.

High Risk/High Reward

Jared Sullinger Has the best chance of the Boston rookies to see regular minutes. If Jeff Green isn’t the same player after his long absence, Sully will have an even better opportunity.

Avery Bradley Recovering from injuries to both shoulders, Bradley isn’t expected to play until January but could steal minutes from Courtney Lee.

raptors small logoToronto Raptors

Chris Sheridan has them 29th in the league in his September Power Rankings and it’s hard to imagine them escaping the cellar in such a tough division. Formerly casual about defense, the Raps became grittier last year and will surprise some opponents with their effort.  Unfortunately for fantasy owners, coach Dwayne Casey would prefer to win 80-79 and his input on personnel seems to be growing.

Best to Own

Kyle Lowry A perfect fit for the coach and his system. He might be there when the other Tier 2 PG are off the board.

Solid Contributors

Landry Fields Of course, Toronto overpaid. That contract was a “poison pill” attempt to knock the Knicks out of the Steve Nash sweepstakes. Don’t hold it against Fields, who is responsible defensively and will get plenty of minutes. A safe pick late in standard-sized leagues.

DeMar DeRozan Just turned 23 and will be forced to play better in his fourth season because there’s more depth at his position. If his FG% doesn’t improve, DMDR might spend longer stretches on the bench.

Fantasy Sleepers

Jonas Valanciunas Sheridan, who gave Toronto a D- in his offseason report card, has a good point about foul trouble being his nemesis, but the Lithuanian phenom will put up fantasy-friendly numbers whenever he’s on the floor. News that JV is currently in a walking boot may cause him to drop a bit in drafts.

Terrence Ross Another addition with the fingerprints of coach Casey. There were draft day rumors about the Raptors trading the #8 overall pick for Kyle Lowry. Instead, they used it to select Ross, who might see a lot of second-unit minutes. I like him in deep leagues only this year, with some keeper potential.

Players to Avoid

Jose Calderon One of my favorite players needs a change of scenery. A 48% shooter from the floor for his career, 87.5% from the line, with an A/T ratio over 4.0 — it’s too bad he has trouble defending. A classy guy, the Spaniard won’t complain in public about coming off the bench, but fantasy owners should expect reductions in all his counting stats.

Amir Johnson There are two big men fighting for one role. On our Depth Chart, neither is listed as a starter. It’s hard to pick a “winner” this soon and they could diminish each other’s value.

Ed Davis His third season has a “now or never” feel. The former Tar Heel needs to get bigger and tougher if he ever wants to start in the NBA and also must outplay Johnson. Pass.

Aaron Gray The big man might start once in a while against certain centers but has very little fantasy value beyond 30-team leagues.

Alan Anderson Don’t be fooled by his April; the Raps were limping badly and he’s unlikely to see that much playing time again.

Jamaal Magliore Nothing more than veteran presence, though he’s popular with fans as a Toronto native.

Quincy Acy  Rookie isn’t expected to be relevant this year unless there are a few injuries.

High Risk/High Reward

Andrea Bargnani Yes, there’s an injury risk, as that calf muscle was problematic all year. Forget about what he did in March and April during an aborted return. Think about the 23.5 PTS and 6.5 REB he was averaging when healthy.

Linas Kleiza  In the 2010-2011 season, after a year recovering from microfracture surgery, he lasted just 39 games before shutting it down. In 2011-2012, he missed a few weeks at the start. Based on his performance at the Olympics, he might finally be 100% healthy.

John Lucas For now, he’s a third-string PG, not worth owning except in the deepest formats. However, he can fill it up and would immediately be useful if (when?) Jose Calderon gets traded.

Our introduction and fantasy analysis of the Nets and Knicks is in Part I.

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Fantasy Spin: September 20, 2012

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When you only write once a week in this space, it seems like a lot happens in the interim. Since I was last here, we’ve done a lot of work: Jeff has written about strategy and Kent has finished off our positional preview, sorted into tiers for draft planning.

The last one was the toughest: the centers.

Remember if you’re drafting soon, especially in a deep league, to stay familiar with our 2012-13 Depth Chart.

Before I say anything else today, I want to introduce a new feature in the Fantasy Spin, the Jump Ball. Since there are three of us in this space now with relatively strong opinions, we’re going to end up disagreeing on a lot of players. And Jeff has now started the ball rolling, as he and Kent are at loggerheads over Lou Williams. In the Jump Ball feature, I take another look at both views and try to mediate between them.

Jump Ball: Louis Williams

Other than rookies, no type of player causes more arguments than a veteran switching teams for the first time. It’s not surprising that Williams is one of the first guys to cause a ruckus amongst the Spinners this year. Here’s what Kent had to say about Williams in his Shooting Guard Tiers column:

Louis Williams ATL: Gets a new address and a chance to start. With a big jump in minutes, expect good counting stats but that FG% is always a caution flag.

Jeff rejoindered:

Players I think you have a tier too low are Louis Williams, Wilson Chandler, Rodney Stuckey, Ben Gordon and Gerald Henderson. They will all get steady minutes and Williams, Chandler and Stuckey contribute in many categories aside from points.

Kent had rated Williams in Tier 5 alongside Ray Allen, Jared Dudley, Wilson Chandler, Dion Waiters, DeMar DeRozan and Danny Green. Now to give the draft context, these are the guys who rank from 21-27 at the shooting guard position, putting them in roughly the 100-150 category overall on your board. If you’re in a 12-team league with a standard 10-man lineup, these guys are your third guard, or rotating in and out of your utility spots based on matchups and need. Obviously, not every player here is going to deliver the same type of production. We project Waiters as a starter for the Cavs: he might leap out of the gate with 30 minutes a game or he might be gathering splinters from November through February.

It’s not to say these players are equivalent in ability. Williams, for example, is a much better player than DeMar DeRozan. We’re in the fantasy universe here.

In Yahoo! drafts to date, Williams’s average draft position is 103.3, meaning that the market seems to be right about in the middle between Jeff’s view that he’s a Tier 4 and Kent’s that he’s a Tier 5. The uncertainty is mostly tied to the move from Philly, where he played off the bench (and therefore more against second units) and got 25 minutes a game, to Atlanta, where he will almost certainly start and in fact he’ll be their best guard, though on a team with a loaded frontcourt where the guards will be asked to defer to (and feed) the big men.

I think Jeff is right about this one, and his point that Williams contributes in many categories besides points is key here.

Williams has been a quiet across-the-board performer whose minutes have hardly changed in five years of rotation play in the City of Brotherly Love (he’s bounced between 23 and 26, with the exception having been when he had a brief opportunity to start three years ago) as the third guard for the Sixers. And he’s been almost the prototypical combo guard, despite his small stature. A decent defender, he chips in with all sort of categories, and in doing so he’s easy to undervalue. The low field goal percentage is a difficult category for him, as is the rebounding which is below-average for a guard (and if your league counts both offensive and defensive rebounds, for example, that bumps Williams lower).

But on the other hand he’s above average for a SG-rated player in assists, and as he’s gotten older he’s been able to drastically cut his turnovers. His A/T for the past two seasons is well over 2.5, which is extremely good for a guy rated as a wing player. Some of this may be related to the quality of the defences he’s played against, but when you look at who he was passing to, you see some encouraging signs for his arrival in Atlanta.

Notably, Williams played brilliantly last year when paired with Thaddeus Young. Now he gets to play with Young’s spiritual father, Josh Smith, the kind of uber-athletic, well-rounded forward that many of us dream that Young could be. I think Williams is going to relish both the extra minutes and the amount he’ll see of the basketball. Because despite the fact that the Hawks are frontcourt-heavy, it’s doubtful that they’ll be running that much of the offense through Smith, Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia. Smith is likely to still play a lot down low; while he’s a brilliantly rounded player skill-wise, the Hawks are probably a bit more shallow than they have been and they will likely be more conventional than Larry Drew was last season. This means the ball in the hands of the guards more, and that will help Williams, because Jeff Teague is still both inconsistent and an unsure ballhandler.

Finally, I think the Hawks will play quicker this year (they were marginally quicker-paced than the Sixers last year). That should also help Williams, who struggles when the game slows down and notably when the competition is better. The difference between Williams’s efficiency in the regular season and in the playoffs over his career is quite a bit higher than most players. The other stylistic change that should benefit him is how opposing teams will need to double inside to handle Smith, Horford and Pachulia. That will open more threes for Williams; I’d expect his three-point attempts to increase and perhaps his percentage too; at 36% he did well enough last season. He should be an even better contributor in the three-pointers category, and won’t hurt you in the three-point percentage category either if that’s a factor.

The the one knock I see on Williams is the increased level of competition. The Hawks are a better team and have what I think is a tougher schedule, and Williams will see more starters and fewer backups. If he struggles with the level of competition (and remember, he seems to do so in playoffs) this analysis might be wrong. But overall, I’m giving this Jump Ball to Jeff. I think Lou’s a Tier 4 guy for his versatility and potential upside as a starter (and top guard).

Future Jump Balls won’t be as long as this one, but with lots of preseason left ahead of us it’s fun to take a longer look at someone. See you next week.

Thanks to Keith Allison for the photo of Lou Williams.

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Hamilton: NBA Free Agency, Week 1 in Review; Week 2 Ahead

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Deron Williams stayed.

Jason Kidd left.

Steve Nash was traded, and so was Kyle Lowry.

Thus far, the NBA’s free agency season has been dominated by point guards, but as we count down the days to the end of the moratorium on July 11, there are plenty of other deals, signings, and trades being made.

On Friday, the Celtics were dealt a crushing blow (exactly how crushing will be determined in part by Jason Terry) when Ray Allen decided to join the Miami Heat. The Philadelphia 76ers, on the other hand, took out the dynamite severed ties with Elton Brand and Lou Williams.

Meanwhile, after agreeing to terms with Jason Kidd, the New York Knicks are still pretty active in the free agent market.

And although there’s still some time before July 11, it seems as though the fates of Nicolas Batum and Eric Gordon are settled  – their personal wishes be damned.

We don’t know what’s going to happen in the future, but here’s a rundown of the major stories from the recent past:

Ray Allen Joins The Heat

After the Celtics were knocked out of the playoffs by the Miami Heat, I got word that Ray Allen was probably on his way out of Boston. I took to Twitter and relayed what I’d heard, mainly that Allen’s relationships with Danny Ainge, Doc Rivers, and Rajon Rondo had all deteriorated to the point where it was very likely that Allen would seek employment elsewhere once he became a free agent.

Ainge tried to trade Allen to the Memphis Grizzlies last April, and it’s something Allen wasn’t able to forget. In the end, the Celtics final contract offer to Allen was a two-year, $12 million deal and it included a no-trade clause. So there’s your confirmation.

Despite the fact that the Celtics reportedly offered Allen more than any of the other teams courting him—the Memphis Grizzlies, Los Angeles Clippers, and Miami Heat among them—Allen ended up settling for half the money that the Celtics offered.

In the end, Allen agreed to join the Miami Heat on Friday, ending his five-year run as a member of the Boston Celtics. Allen is expected to accept the Heat’s $3.09 million taxpayer midlevel exception, though it’s unclear whether Allen will receive a two-year deal or a three-year deal.

Fresh off of winning the 2012 NBA championship, the Heat unequivocally offered Allen a chance to join a team on the rise with something that the Celtics wouldn’t offer — a starting job.

Allen just turned 37 years old, but the NBA’s all-time leader in 3-point makes just shot the best percentage of his 16-year career this past season and still believes he’s still a starter. From what I hear, Allen didn’t feel as valued by the Boston Celtics as he once did, and the signing of  Terry didn’t help much. Terry will play a very similar role in the Celtics’ offense as Allen did, and with Avery Bradley expecting to return next season, Allen saw the Celtics’ backcourt getting more crowded.

First, Steve Nash was traded to the Lakers and now, Allen signs with Heat. I guess all we need now is for Tony Parker to be traded to the Mavericks.

The lesson in all of this? The NBA is a business. Fans takes rivalries much more seriously than the players do. At the end of the day, most players want an opportunity to win and want to feel as though they’re needed.

Allen got that from the Heat, and that’s why he ditched North Station for South Beach.

Sixers Sever Ties with Elton Brand and Lou Williams

In a move that shouldn’t surprise many, the Philadelphia 76ers decided to use their one-time amnesty right on Elton Brand. He was due to earn over $18 million this coming season and though he will still be paid, his salary comes off of the books and allows the team to sign Nick Young to a one-year deal for $6 million.

The Sixers have also decided to part ways with Lou Williams. Williams had spent his entire seven-year career as a Sixer prior to announcing on Twitter that he wouldn’t be returning to the team.

This past season, Williams averaged 14.9 points per game off the bench and accomplished the rare feat of leading his team in scoring, despite being a reserve.

These moves indicate that the club is looking to build around the young nucleus of Jrue Holiday, Young, Evan Turner, and Spencer Hawes—whom the club recently re-signed to a two-year extension worth $13 million.

What’s more interesting is where all of this leaves Andre Iguodala. Iguodala is one of the game’s best perimeter defenders and has an all-around basketball game and IQ reminiscent of a poor man’s Scotty Pippen. Each year, his name comes up in trade rumors and if the Sixers are cleaning house, this may be when he is finally moved.

Last June, the Lakers and Sixers discussed a trade that would have sent Lamar Odom to the Sixers for Andre Iguodala, but the Sixers backed out. At this point, the Lakers probably don’t have the assets to complete any such trade, but there will always be a market for a player like Iguodala.

For that reason, you should keep your eyes on this situation.

Knicks To Sign Kidd, Match Lin, Meet With Camby

After losing out on Steve Nash, the Knicks rebounded nicely and agreed to terms with Jason Kidd. Kidd is expected to back Jeremy Lin up next season. Lin agreed to a four-year, $28 million offer sheet with the Houston Rockets on Wednesday, but the Knicks are believed to be prepared to match the deal.

Though Kidd can’t officially be signed until July 11 the Knicks will sign him to a three-year deal worth $9 million and would like to execute a sign-and-trade deal with the Mavericks so that they can preserve their taxpayer midlevel exception of $3.09 million and offer it to another free agent.

That other free-agent may very well be a former Knick, Marcus Camby. Camby is expected to meet with the Knicks over the weekend, but probably not until after he’s met with the Miami Heat. Fortunately for the Knicks, the Heat have agreed to terms with Ray Allen for their taxpayer midlevel exception, so they would only be able to offer Camby the veteran’s minimum salary of about $1.4 million. Camby is said to be looking for a bigger payday, but the fact that the Heat could offer him a starting role and a serious chance at winning a championship probably improve their chances.

The Knicks are still very active in the free-agent market, more so since they are not expected to match the Toronto Raptors’ three-year, $20 million offer for Landry Fields. Though Fields spent most of his two-years as a Knick as a shooting guard, coach Mike Woodson favored Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith.

Fields, in my opinion, was always a small forward playing out of position and his departure leaves questions as to who will be Carmelo Anthony’s primary reserve. On Friday, news trickled out from Portland that the Trail Blazers have reached a buyout agreement with Shawne Williams. Bringing Williams back might make some sense for the Knicks, especially with the uncertain contract status of J.R. Smith and Steve Novak.

Nicolas Batum and Eric Gordon Likely To Be Matched

Earlier this week, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Phoenix Suns made news when they agreed to offer sheets with Nicolas Batum and Eric Gordon, respectively. Batum’s Timberwolves offer sheet is for four years, $45 million, while Gordon’s offer sheet with the Suns will pay him $58 million over four years.

Batum and Gordon were two of the more coveted restricted free agents on the market, so the following should come as no surprise: all indications are that each of their offers will be matched.

The Trail Blazers’ matching of Batum’s offer sheet makes a lot of sense considering last season’s trade that sent Gerald Wallace to the Brooklyn Nets. The move was done in large part to clear the way for Batum to be Portland’s small forward of the future and at this moment, it appears that’s what’s going to happen.

The same can’t be said for Gordon, however. Gordon was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Chris Paul to the Clippers, but the Hornets failed to sign him to a long-term extension when they had the opportunity to do so earlier this year. Now, after drafting Anthony Davis with the first overall pick in last month’s draft and Austin Rivers with the 10th overall pick, I wonder how well Rivers and Gordon will be able to co-exist.

The Suns—who have agreed to terms with both Goran Dragic and Michael Beasley—are hoping that the Hornets elect to not match the offer sheet to Gordon so that the rebuilding effort in the dessert can be short-lived. Dragic and Beasley couldn’t ensure that, but if you add Gordon to those two, the Suns would probably have a fighting chance at securing a spot in next season’s NBA playoffs.

There’s still a long way to go, but stay plugged in to SheridanHoops.com. We’ve got you covered.

Moke Hamilton is a Senior NBA Columnist for SheridanHoops.com and will be providing the latest news and commentary during the NBA’s free-agency period. Follow him on Twitter to stay up-to date.

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