NBA Proposition Bets: A Different Angle

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moneyintrashIn the past few weeks I have written columns on the NBA futures market (to win the championship) and over/unders on regular season win totals, which is always something that intrigues not only bettors, but fans, too, because it gives them a barometer for how their team may perform in the upcoming season.

The last item on the menu before the regular season starts next week is some of the more exotic proposition bets on the NBA betting menu which get some of the NBA “geeks” all giddy before they tip off the season.

To be clear, the sports books in Las Vegas really do not delve into proposition bets very much; they stick to the NBA futures market, regular season win totals and sometimes a prop here or there on the regular season MVP.

So many of the bets I am about to focus on are found offshore, and definitely make for some interesting discussion points.

Rookie Of The Year


Victor Oladipo 4/1
Trey Burke 5/1
Kelly Olynyk 5/1
Cody Zeller 7/1
Ben McLemore 7/1
C.J. McCollum 8/1
Michael Carter-Williams 8/1
Otto Porter 10/1
Anthony Bennett 14/1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 20/1
Shabazz Muhammad 20/1
Alex Len 25/1
Tim Hardaway Jr 28/1
Nerlens Noel 29/1
Shane Larkin 33/1
Sergay Karasev 33/1
Dennis Shroeder 33/1

Since 1985, when the New York Knicks drafted Patrick Ewing No. 1 overall, 13 overall No. 1 picks have won the Rookie Of The Year award.

A player drafted outside of the top 10 has not won the Rookie Of The Year award since 1987 when Mark Jackson won the award being drafted 18th overall. Granted, the first overall pick this year was a surprise to everyone involved, but having Anthony Bennett as 14/1 to win the award is a bit interesting.

I think the favorites to win the award are most likely Victor Oladipo and his Hoosier teammate Cody Zeller. The obvious sucker-bet in this group is Nerlens Noel, who might miss the entire season with an injury. The Rookie Of The Year award is really hit or miss on whether that player will become a star or prime time player in the league:

Since 2000, the winners have included Mike Miller, Pau Gasol, Amare Stoudemire, LeBron James, Emeka Okafor, Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, Blake Griffin, Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard.

Regular Season Scoring Leaders


Kevin Durant 1.2/1
Carmelo Anthony 3.15/1
LeBron James 3.5/1
Field (Any Other Player) 8/1
Kobe Bryant 8.25/1
Stephen Curry 14/1
Derrick Rose 15/1
James Harden 16/1
Kevin Love 25/1
Damian Lillard 35/1
Monta Ellis 40/1
Dwayne Wade 50/1
Dirk Nowitzki 50/1
Deron Williams 50/1
LaMarcus Aldridge 50/1
Brook Lopez 50/1
Blake Griffin 50/1
Dwight Howard 50/1
DeMar DeRozan 60/1
Paul Pierce 60/1

Since 2005, only five different players have won this title, which shows the situation the player is in is just as important as that player’s ability to score.

Kobe Bryant has won it twice, LeBron James once, Dwayne Wade once, Kevin Durant three times and most recently Carmelo Anthony.

This is not a recent trend, since 1994 only nine different players have won this award, so thinking a new player will be added to this list is usually not the smart way to bet. If you ask me, a player like Dwayne Wade has no chance to win this award, so you can take him off the list. I can even go so far to say LeBron and Kobe do not have a great chance based on a few different factors. Kobe’s health is a negative and so are LeBron’s assists.

The positive for Kobe is the fact that his teammates are going to look to him very often this year if and when he enters the lineup. The positive for LeBron is Wade’s health and the fact James will be needed to score more than ever this year.

With Russell Westbrook hurt, Kevin Durant and then Carmelo Anthony have to be the favorites this year with the dark horse being James Harden if you ask me.

NBA Regular Season MVP


LeBron James 1.4/1
Kevin Durant 3.5/1
Carmelo Anthony 8.5/1
Derrick Rose 9/1
Chris Paul 11/1
James Harden 16/1
Russell Westbrook 25/1
Kobe Bryant 25/1
Tony Parker 30/1
Dwight Howard 30/1
Kyrie Irving 30/1
Stephen Curry 30/1
Blake Griffin 30/1
Paul George 35/1
Tim Duncan 45/1
Kevin Love 45/1
John Wall 50/1
Deron Williams 55/1
Dirk Nowitzki 60/1
Rajon Rondo 65/1
Dwayne Wade 75/1
Ty Lawson 100/1
Andre Iguodala 100/1
Brandon Jennings 125/1
Kemba Walker 125/1
Monta Ellis 125/1
David Lee 125/1
Pau Gasol 125/1
LaMarcus Aldridge 125/1
Roy Hibbert 125/1
Anthony Davis 125/1
Josh Smith 125/1

The question here is pretty simple…can anyone win this award but LeBron James? James has won it four of the past five years, with Derrick Rose being the only player other than James to win the award since 2007 when Kobe Bryant won it.

Only four NBA players are listed below 10/1 to win this award, and it is that way for a reason, this is not baseball, a team must be very good for a player to win this award — and that is why the best players on the Knicks, Thunder, Heat and Bulls are on the top of this list. If you are looking for a dark horse to win the award, here are a few players I would possibly look at: Chris Paul, James Harden, Stephen Curry and a long-shot in Monta Ellis. (I’d drop a couple bucks on Kyrie at 30/1-CS)

Regular Season Assists Per Game


Chris Paul 1.5/1
Deron Williams 3/1
Rajon Rondo 3/1
Ricky Rubio 7.5/1
Derrick Rose 8.5/1
John Wall 9/1
Steve Nash 16/1
Jeff Teague 25/1
Tony Parker 25/1
Jose Calderon 30/1
Brandon Jennings 55/1

Like many of the other awards, since 1998, only five players have won this award: Jason Kidd, Andre Miller, Steve Nash, Chris Paul and Rajon Rondo. I truly believe there is no dark horse for this award, I would be truly surprised if someone other than Rondo, Paul or Deron Williams won the award. I do not have long term faith in Rubio to win it, Rose and Wall will need to score too much and Nash simply does not have it to contend with his roster and age.

Regular Season Rebounds Per Game


Dwight Howard 1/1
Kevin Love 1.5/1
Field (Any Other Player) 6/1
Nikola Vucevic 9.5/1
Anderson Varejao 16/1
Tyson Chandler 18/1
Joakim Noah 20/1
Zach Randolph 20/1
DeMarcus Cousins 20/1
Anthony Davis 25/1
Omer Asik 30/1
Al Horford 30/1
Blake Griffin 35/1
Reggie Evans 35/1
Andrew Bynum 35/1
David Lee 40/1
Tim Duncan 55/1

Since 2003, three players have won this award: Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard and Kevin Love. Out of all the other awards, it is the first time one player is listed at even money to win — Dwight Howard to have the most rebounds. If you want to talk about a dark horse for the award, I would go with a few different players to take a chance on: Tyson Chandler and DeMarcus Cousins. Chandler I believe has a chance because Andrea Bargnani simply does not rebound and Chandler will be able to gobble up a ton this year and Cousins, if motivated in the right areas, could legitimately be a contender here, but those character concerns are what make him 20/1.

Team vs Team NBA Regular Season Wins

Here are a few examples of team vs. team regular season totals, compared to other teams’ win totals, wins for the higher echelon teams across the league:

Clippers (-105) -4.5 over Nets (-125)

Bulls (-115) -3 over Rockets (-115)

Bulls (+100) -3.5 over Thunder (-130)

Pacers (-115) -2 over Warriors (-115)

Heat (-115) -6 over Rockets (-115)

Heat (-115) -8.5 over Thunder (-115)

Lakers (+120) -9.5 over Celtics (-150)

Rockets (-115) -2 over Nets (-115)

Nets (-115) -2.5 over Warriors (-115)

A few props that stand out to me…the fact that the Lakers are 9.5 wins ahead of anyone is very surprising, but the Celtics are supposed to be in the bottom five teams in the league in wins this year and if Danny Ainge decides to deal Rondo, they could easily fall in the bottom three. The Lakers do not look much better themselves and could end up trading Pau Gasol at some point this year, which makes that wager a complete toss-up based on who blows it up first. I think the Bulls over the Thunder is a very sneaky wager based on the fact of how deep Chicago is and how thin Oklahoma City is this year, especially with the injury to Westbrook and the loss of Kevin Martin.

Evan Abrams writes about basketball gambling for SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter @Betropolitan..

GMs say Harden is League’s Best Shooting Guard

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James HardenKobe BryantThe general managers have spoken, and boy — they’ve said a mouthful.

For the first time in the 12-year history of the NBA.com survey, the Los Angeles Lakers Kobe Bryant (20%) was not selected by GMs as the best player at his position, as the Houston Rockets’ James Harden (56.7%) was selected as the best shooting guard in the NBA.

NBA.com once again surveyed the general managers of all 30 teams on the upcoming 2013-14 NBA season, gathering their responses on the best teams, players, coaches, fans, offseason moves and more.

Other top honors included Orlando Magic guard Victor Oladipo (80%) as the top vote-getter for the NBA Rookie of the Year, the Chicago Bulls (43.3%) as the top defensive team, and San Antonio Spurs point guard Tony Parker (53.3%) as the league’s best international player.

This year, 75.9 percent of GMs believe Miami will win the title.

GMs have correctly picked The Finals winner six out of the previous 11 years, including last year’s prediction of the Heat winning it all. This year, the other top votegetters for NBA champion were the Indiana Pacers and San Antonio Spurs, both tied for second with 6.9 percent of votes.

The complete results of the survey are available at NBA.com. The general managers were not allowed to vote for their own team or personnel.

Noteworthy 2013-14 NBA.com GM Survey results include:

· Miami Heat – NBA Champion (75.9% of the vote)

· LeBron James, Miami – Kia NBA Most Valuable Player (69%)

· Victor Oladipo, Orlando – Kia NBA Rookie of the Year (80%)

· Detroit Pistons – Most Improved Team (16.7%)

· Chicago – Best Defensive Team (43.3%)

· Nets-Celtics trade / Andre Iguodala to Golden State – Most Surprising Offseason Move (21.4%)

· Tony Parker, San Antonio – Best International Player (53.3%)

· Chauncey Billups, Detroit – Active player who would make the best head coach (32.1%)

Eisenberg: Projecting Dennis Schröder’s Translation to the NBA with Analytics

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In Elton Brand’s 14 NBA seasons, the two-time All Star has played alongside some of the league’s most respected point guards. From Sam Cassell to pre-injury Shaun Livingston to Andre Miller to Jrue Holiday, Brand has grown accustomed to excellence from his floor generals.

So when Brand signed with Atlanta over the summer and was told to check out the highlight reel for his new teammate, a 19-year-old who had been nicknamed “Baby Rondo,” he was understandably skeptical of the moniker.

“People were like, ‘This kid’s just like a young (Rajon) Rondo,’” Brand said. “And I was like, ‘Come on, guys. You can’t compare him to Rondo just because they both have long arms.’”

However, after two weeks of practicing with the now-20-year-old Dennis Schröder , Brand has been won over:

“I was wrong,” Brand admitted. “I can definitely see where those comparisons come from now. It’s uncanny.”

Ask around the Hawks’ locker room and the consensus is clear: Schröder is not your typical 20-year-old. 

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SH Blog: Kupchak says Kobe won’t play differently to attract free agents

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Paul georgeThe Heat are the best team in the NBA. I don’t think anyone would dispute that.

SH Blog: Bryant still a few weeks away from fully running, how Kerr received a black eye from Jordan

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Kobe BryantRemember all the talk throughout the summer about where Kobe Bryant stands in terms of being able to play in the season opener?

The superstar guard gave us great optimism when he confidently jumped into a pool from 40-plus feet above the ground last month. However, we are now just 36 days away before the Los Angeles Lakers play their first game of the season, and there is still no concrete news on when Bryant will resume basketball activities. The only thing we know at this point is that he is still a “few weeks away” from being able to run without any limitations, meaning he is not anywhere near caught up to speed in terms of basketball activities. Team trainer Gary Vitti explained the situation to the best of his knowledge, from Mark Medina of Daily News:

Los Angeles Lakers trainer Gary Vitti explained “This guy hasn’t had a lot of time off over the last few years,” Vitti said of Bryant, who had competed in two Olympics and in three NBA Finals appearances in recent seasons. “To attribute it to a certain number of games where he played more minutes is being short-sighted.”

He estimated Bryant remains a “few weeks away” before advancing to full-weight bearing running and then basketball-related activities. Vitti also said “there’s no projected date” on whether Bryant will play in the Lakers’ season opener Oct. 29 against the Clippers or in any of the team’s eight exhibition games through Oct. 25.

“I thought he was going to be worse with pushing, pushing, pushing,” Vitti said of Bryant. “But he’s been very, very smart about the entire process.”

Almost.

Bryant jumped off a 40-foot high dive, something he soon posted on Vine, a social media video player.

“I wasn’t real happy with it,” Vitti said. 

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