Southeast Division Fantasy Preview Part II
In Part 1, we covered the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks. In Part II, we look at the Orlando Magic, Washington Wizards and Charlotte Bobcats.
Orlando Magic
“Incompetence is the world’s greatest cloak for corruption.” I heard this quote on a local radio talk show discussing the referee situation in the NFL. I wish I knew the guest so I could properly credit him. It stuck with me as a perfect explanation for what may be going on with the Orlando Magic. Could the years of managerial incompetence culminating in that inexplicable Dwight Howard trade be justified in a “Cleveland Indians in the film Major League” sort of way?
Is the Orlando ownership purposely sabotaging the franchise value so they can move team to a new city with a new arena (hello, Seattle)? Are the years of terrible personnel decisions a camouflage so Rich DeVos can whinge that he spent tons of money on player salaries, including the luxury tax, yet somehow couldn’t make it work in Orlando?
Did the collapse of the Florida real estate market, the great recession, the lockout, new CBA, vetoed Chris Paul trade, collapse of negotiations with Brooklyn Nets, refusal to acknowledge the rumored superior offers from the Houston Rockets and Atlanta Hawks, trading Howard to the Lakers (of all the dastardly teams, the dastardliest of them all) and disastrous 2012-13 roster all contrive to make those very last Magic fans apathetic? All of a sudden with a single quote, all of those years of incompetence are recast into a brilliantly devious ploy that only a billionaire NBA owner (or David Stern) could contrive.
Moving from conspiracy to fantasy, unless they unearth another “Wild Thing” from the Central Florida penal league, the Orlando Magic will be a veritable wasteland for fantasy owners. The team is full of physically limited players who succeed primarily on grit and hustle. But nothing stops hustle faster than losing, and in particular losing without hope. The situation in Orlando is bad and it is going to get worse. Once the direness of their plight settles in, the hustle will disappear and the moods of the few talented players like Al Harrington will sour, if they haven’t already. The team will head into a downspiral that may make Charlotte Bobcats look good by comparison. Pace, style of play and rotations all become irrelevant when a team gets that bad.
I should just list the entire roster under “Players to Avoid” and move on, but let’s give it the ole college try.
Best to Own
Gustavo Ayon If I had to choose one Magic, this is it. He played hard in another depressing situation in New Orleans last year and even though he isn’t a great rebounder, he is the only one on the roster who will go into those tough areas and thus will have lots of missed shots to gather and put back. His ADP of 220 is more than reasonable considering he is likely to play 30+ minutes this year.
Solid Contributors
Jameer Nelson is a bottom-third PG who does nothing particularly well but he has two advantages, guaranteed minutes and a licence to shoot. As the undisputed leader of this team, expect his rates (FG%, 3p%, AST/M, TO) to fall but for him to make up for it with increased volume, especially in garbage time. Not my cup of tea, but he may get within spitting distance of his 92 ADP.
JJ Redick is the only player on the team who isn’t on a downward trend. A poor man’s Louis Williams but his ADP of 140 is not a bargain.
Sleepers
Andrew Nicholson is old for a rookie (23) and doesn’t shoot particularly well but that is probably irrelevant for the Magic. He will want to play and his effort alone should ensure that he gets minutes.
Players to Avoid
Aaron Afflalo‘s success is a product of the system and deep well of talent in Denver. Expect declines across the board not the significant gains priced into his 77 ADP, which is more than 50 spots too high for me.
Glen Davis is a fun player to watch for the degree of difficulty of his shots. He is a sleeper for many, on the reasoning that he will get the shots that Ryan Anderson and Howard used to get. I don’t buy it. He doesn’t have Anderson’s range or ability on the offensive glass nor the height or hops to get Howard’s put backs, dunks and alley-oops. If anything, without Anderson or Howard defenses can crowd his mid-range jumper game, leading to even more missed shots and helter-skelter plays. His ADP of 114 is a good 100 places above his actual value. A potential first overall pick in those fantasy “loser leagues” where you try to pick the worst players.
Hedo Turkoglu used to be a sexy pick because of the AST from the SF position but that was with Howard in the lineup. Without Dwight, expect even worse stats than when he was in Toronto and Phoenix.
Al Harrington is probably the most talented player on the team. He worked hard last summer and had his best season in years. His reward was a trade to this mess in Orlando. I don’t think we will see him work hard again.
Quentin Richardson is cooked and has been for a couple of years as he can no longer do the one thing he is asked to do, shoot 3’s (34.7%). It is mystery to me that he averaged 18 min in 48 games last year. He has no place on a rebuilding team.
Nikola Vucevic is being talked about as the starting center for Orlando. I don’t know why. After a nice start in Philadelphia, he played his way out their rotation. His .7 FTA per game for a C is atrocious and he commits too many fouls to play extended minutes. His 144 ADP is truly mystifying.
Ish Smith/E’Twan Moore Both are battling for the back-up PG role but neither is good and Nelson is the one guy whose name is written in stone on this team.
Moe Harkless/Christian Eyenga/Justin Harper/Kyle O’Quinn all could see significant garbage time this year, but none has produced at a level warranting rostering even in the deepest of fantasy leagues.
High Risk/High Reward
Josh McRoberts was very poor in 2012 after a solid 2010-11 campaign. The potential for a bounce back year is there, especially since he may be allowed to shoot the ball again.
Washington Wizards
Long one of the most dysfunctional groups in the NBA, the Wizards finally took steps to clean up their act. Andray Blatche, Javale McGee, Nick Young and Rashard Lewis were all shown the door for their erratic or indifferent play. In are Nene, Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza and Martell Webster as solid citizens, if less than NBA stars. The moves could be a significant step back in talent for the Wizards, but will hopefully allow them to focus on developing all those lottery picks and maybe turn a couple of them into stars.
The best of those lottery picks, John Wall, is now the undisputed leader on and off the court. The talent is definitely still there, the question is now that with more professional teammates, will he finally make shots and his teammates better? Unfortunately, we are going to have to wait to find out as he has a stress injury to his leg that will keep him out at least eight weeks.
Normally, I’d be cynical about a team with such a long history of mediocrity, but I am going to give the Wiz a pass and simply say this is a show-me year. Let someone else assume risk while you watch and re-evaluate for next season.
Best to Own
John Wall surprised me. I thought his brutal shooting percentages would suffocate his value. That was not the case, as he produced top-25 value despite that ridiculous 3P% of 7 (3-for-42). I was going to recommend him in the top 20 if he showed significantly improved shooting in the preseason, but because of his injury, we won’t know until well after your league’s draft. I’d now take Ricky Rubio first.
Solid Contributors
Nene is slowing down, not just because of the move from Denver but because of nagging health issues and age. He should get a much higher percentage of Washington’s touches than he did in Denver to offset the reduced pace but he is likely to be worse, not better. ADP of 63 does not price his risk of regression.
Sleepers
Trevor Ariza’s 41.7 FG% and 33.3 3P% will fit right in at Washington. Despite those poor rates, the 5.2 RPG, 3.3 APG and 1.7 STLPG are more than worth it at 118.
Jan Vesely was pretty raw last year but he improved every month to the point that his April stats were pretty decent (8.5 PPG, 55.1 FG%, 7 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.1 STL and 0.7 BLK). He should be able to continue to his improvement.
Kevin Seraphin improved monthly as well and also put up a very nice April (15.5 PPG, 52.7 FG%, 7 RPG and 1.7 BLK).
Players to Avoid
Jordan Crawford is a gunslinger who takes over Nick Young’s role as the brick layer. Unfortunately, he is a terrible shooter who shouldn’t be taking 14 shots a game (40 FG%) including 4.3 3PA (28.9 3P%). An all round rate stat killer.
Emeka Okafor has declined so much he is almost a liability on the floor. He contributes nothing on offense but missed shots, missed free throws and turnovers. The 7.9 RPG and 1 BLKPG can be had at a much cheaper price elsewhere.
Chris Singleton played in all 66 games last year and did little of note. With a tighter rotation this year including Ariza as the new top wing defender, don’t expect him to get the same opportunity this year.
Trevor Booker delivered 150’s value last year but has likely been passed on the depth chart by the younger Vesely and Seraphin and is definitely behind Nene and Okafor. He won’t see the 30+ minutes a game he did after the all-star break.
Martell Webster at this point in his career is just another shooter who can’t make shots with regularity.
Cartier Martin came over after a successful stint the D-League but failed to make shots and Washington has too many of those guys already.
High Risk/High Reward
Bradley Beal is likely to see starter’s minutes and there is a lot to like about his game, especially the above average rebounding for a guard and his ball handling ability but a 113 ADP is very much a gamble.
Shelvin Mack is not really a point guard but is being asked to play like one. Has the back-up PG job sewn up and should see a consistent amount of minutes, especially with Wall on the shelf.
Charlotte Bobcats
The Charlotte Bobcats had one of the worst seasons in NBA history last year. Jeff Van Gundy perfectly summed up their season with his response at the all-star break to the question of whether then-coach Paul Silas should be fired: “Fired? He should win Coach of the Year. He’s won three games with that roster.”
The good news is that things can’t possibly get worse, except for the fact that they let their best player last year (DJ Augustin) walk for nothing. New arrivals Ben Gordon, Brendan Haywood, Ramon Sessions, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jeffery Taylor will hopefully bring at least some professionalism back, if not a couple of wins. Unfortunately professionalism doesn’t make the twine go swoosh and the player’s stats are unlikely to change. There still aren’t any fantasy stars here, but there are some bargains and risk/reward plays to interest deep leaguers.
Best to Own
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Despite being a rookie and a raw one at that, MKG is going to be given a wide berth and while he may disappoint with his FG% and FT%, he should contribute plenty of REB, STL and BLK. An excellent first-half stash and second-half play candidate after he makes some adjustments. In keeper leagues, don’t underestimate his potential long-term impact.
Solid Contributors
Gerald Henderson If he could only he shoot 3P, he would have much more value. He has played significantly more minutes every year and should be the starter at SG but is a PTS-only play.
Ben Gordon is nothing more than a scorer, contributing little else other than PTS, but at least you know what you are getting.
Sleepers
Ramon Sessions Except for his outlier half season with Cleveland in 2011-12, he has been a consistent performer with .450 FG%, 5+ APG and .7 STLPG. His lack of 3P makes him a bad fit in Charlotte but he is a better option than Kemba Walker and should outperform his 163 ADP.
Brendan Haywood Call this one a hunch. The last time he played for an awful team, he put up 9.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG, and 2.1 BLKPG. Maybe he just doesn’t like the pressure of having to win.
Players to Avoid
Byron Mullens suddenly got minutes after languishing with OKC and had a couple of big games, but 7-footers with 82.1 FT% shouldn’t have 42.5 FG% unless they are deathly afraid of contact. His poor REB numbers back that up.
Matt Carroll is a very limited shooter who can’t shoot (33.1 FG%). Why Charlotte keeps him around is just one of those Bobcat mysteries.
Desagana Diop Any other team would have moved on years ago, but here he is still on the roster.
High Risk/High Reward
Kemba Walker is the starter at PG but has to dramatically improve his 36.6 FG% to stay there.
Bismack Biyombo was thrown to the wolves last year. He survived and picked up 1.8 BLKPG along the way. He should improve the other areas of his game, but a 151 ADP is a rather high price to pay to find out.
Reggie Williams hasn’t been able to repeat his 2009-10 season but his 38.2 career 3P% makes him by far the best 3P shooter on the roster and he could carve out a significant role.
Tyrus Thomas is running out of lives but players with his knack for STL and BLK always deserve another look in fantasy.
Jeffery Taylor is a poor man’s version of MKG. He should be given an opportunity in garbage time but I think he is just another redundant piece for the Bobcats.
For the division overview, Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks, see Part 1.
Thanks to kd_356 for the photo of Al Harrington.