On Thursday, we forecasted a few potential breakout players based on their playoff performances. Today, we look at other breakout possibilities, based on second-half performance on lottery teams. Unlike the playoff analysis, where you can basically look at the minutes column, more nuance is required. An increase in minutes doesn’t necessarily reflect an increase of trust.
Players like Reggie Jackson already have their expected improvement priced in, so the focus here will be on more under-the-radar names. As you will note, they are all sophmores — a traditional hunting ground for breakouts.
T.J. Warren
Warren is a pure scorer, excellent in and around the basket, who lacks range on his shot. As a result of this reputation, his contributions in the other fantasy categories are often overlooked and he’s written off as a one-trick pony. Below are his stats from one season in the NCAA, D-League and this past year in the Las Vegas Summer League.
| G | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | 3’s | STL | BLK | FG% | FT% | |
| NCAA | 35 | 35.4 | 24.9 | 7.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.525 | 0.690 |
| D-League | 9 | 35.5 | 26.8 | 7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.544 | 0.729 |
| Summer | 7 | 29.7 | 18.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.540 | 0.742 |
As you can see, the point totals and FG% are juicy, but so are the defensive stats of STL, BLK and REB. Now let’s look at his NBA season.
| G | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | 3’s | STL | BLK | FG% | FT% | |
| Pre-ASG | 16 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.463 | 1.000 |
| Post-ASG | 24 | 19.5 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.550 | 0.667 |
First off, despite the step up to the NBA, he did not suffer any loss of FG%, which is elite for an SF. The STL, BLK and REB numbers were down, but as he got more minutes, his per-minute rates in those categories went up and the scoring upside remains very intriguing.
The most telling sign of a potential Warren breakout is the opportunity before him. Gone from Phoenix are incumbents Marcus Morris and Gerald Green. If the Markieff Morris situation does not work out, Warren could be pushed into starting duty.
The only players added in Phoenix who might compete with Warren for minutes are 18-year-old Devin Booker and the very limited Mirza Teletovic, both of whom have the outside shot Warren lacks but not his inside acumen or defensive upside. In other words, they match-up better with Warren than in lieu of him. I can definitely see T.J. push 30 minutes this year, with 15+ points, 5+ rebounds, 1.2 STL and 0.6 BLK and his elite FG%.
Zach LaVine
LaVine came into the league last year as a super-athletic but raw guard, with some believing he could play PG and others seeing a 2-guard. He was pressed into point guard early after Ricky Rubio’s injury and despite some big games, really struggled with his efficiency, which is normal for such a raw player. That time at the point now looks like it may have accelerated his timetable, as he looked better following Rubio’s return, then took off once Rubio was shut down.
New coach Sam Mitchell has already anointed LaVine his starter at SG ahead of accomplished veteran Kevin Martin.
| G | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | 3’s | STL | BLK | FG% | FT% | |
| Pre-Rubio | 43 | 22.9 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.417 | 0.827 |
| With Rubio | 19 | 13.7 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.430 | 0.808 |
| Post-Rubio | 15 | 40.2 | 19.6 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.427 | 0.878 |
LaVine exploded after Rubio’s second injury, playing 40 minutes a game. His AST and REB improved as did his FG%. The real secret to Zach’s success was his ability to get the to line (4.5 FTA per game after March 18) and knock down those FT’s. The high FT% is indicative of good shooting technique and his FG% should continue to improve, especially as he works on his 3PT shot. He was 5-12 from deep in two games at Summer League.
His minutes will come down from 40, likely into the 32-34 range, but he should make up some of that with improved efficiency. With ADPs of 135, 82 and 115 at Yahoo!, CBS and ESPN respectively, LaVine is an excellent candidate to break out.
Rodney Hood
The Jazz as a team broke out last year but one of the quieter players who showed significant improvement was Rodney Hood. The 23rd overall pick last year filled a glaring need on the Utah roster for outside shooting, a need that still exists with a traditional four (Derrick Favors) and starting SG Alec Burks, a better slasher than shooter.
Hood’s ability to spread the floor opens up lanes for Burks and Gordon Hayward while creating space for Favors and Rudy Gobert to operate on the block. Utah is also experimenting with Hood, who at 6’8″ has excellent size for a wing, at PF as part of the small ball revolution. Finding minutes will not be an issue.
| G | MPG | PTS | REB | AST | 3’s | STL | BLK | FG% | FT% | |
| Pre-ASG | 24 | 18.3 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.317 | 0.703 |
| Post-ASG | 26 | 24.1 | 11.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.464 | 0.814 |
| April | 7 | 30.6 | 16.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.452 | 0.913 |
As Utah’s season progressed, Hood got more and more run and had improved dramatically by the season’s final month. From a fantasy perspective, what is particularly encouraging is how his per-minute averages in the counting stats (including 3’s, REB, AST and STL) held or improved as the minutes increased, setting up Hood as an efficient multi-cat contributor.
The only risk here is health, which is not trivial. Hood played only 50 games last year due to his shoulder and barely played in Summer League due to shoulder issues. Utah was being overly cautious but the injury could become chronic.
Jordan Clarkson
Clarkson certainly fits the mold of the second-half breakout but unlike the others above, his minutes and usage are likely to see a decrease (not increase) which takes him out of this conversation. The Lakers not only spent the 2nd overall pick in this year’s draft on a point guard to replace him, their one splurge in free agency was for the reigning Sixth Man of the year, who basically has Clarkson’s game. With the return to health of Kobe Bryant and Nick Young — two very high usage players — and the late addition of veteran Brazilian guard Marcelo Huertas, the outlook for Clarkson’s second season usage looks bleaker than his first.
I still think Clarkson will have the best season of all the Lakers guards and am willing to take a flyer at his current price (ADPs of 130, 120, 106 at Yahoo!, CBS and ESPN) but he is unlikely to surpass expectations.