A note to readers: Due to the fluid nature of lockout settlement talks, Mark Heisler’s column ran on Sunday instead of in its usual Monday slot. If you missed it, click here to read it.-CS
By Art Rondeau
Sunday night’s meeting between the NBA and the NBPA brought some hope to a lot of basketball fans. Although not much was said when the participants called it a night, system issues – such as the salary cap and luxury tax – were discussed, but the split of basketball-related income (BRI) was not.
That’s actually positive news since it’s unlikely that the NBPA would drop below the 53-47 split that they’ve already offered without getting some concessions from the owners on the system issues.
With today’s negotiating session scheduled to begin at 2 p.m. EDT in New York, there is still a chance that an agreement can be reached and a full NBA season will be played. If a deal isn’t finalized, but the sides are close enough to warrant another session or two, commissioner David Stern can choose to push back his Monday deadline and allow negotiations to continue Tuesday without canceling any games.
However, if a deal still hasn’t been reached and the sides are so far apart that a deal isn’t imminent and won’t be finalized this week, here’s a 5-part plan to allow the season to start on time:
First, some facts and figures pertaining to my stopgap solution:
_ The owners have already lost money in the 2011-12 season because preseason games have been cancelled.
_ The owners’ major leverage is canceling some or all of the regular season.
_ The players’ major leverage is decertifying the union and taking the NBA to court.
_ The players have already agreed to take 53 percent of BRI instead of the 57 percent they received since 1999.
_ If the remaining differences between the NBA and NBPA were the only ones that existed when last season ended, they most likely wouldn’t be enough to warrant a lockout.
So here is a 5-step plan to save the 2011-12 season. We’ll call it Agreeing to Disagree.
The way to start the regular season on time, preserve everybody’s leverage and minimize or eliminate the owners’ losses is to take a snapshot of where things stand now, agree to some strange things, and then open training camps immediately. The five steps:
1. The NBA and NBPA agree to extend the recently expired agreement until August 15, 2012 with one change: The players’ take of BRI is 53 percent instead of 57. Both sides agree that this does not lock either of them into that percentage in later agreements.
2. Both sides agree that, if no agreement has been reached by July 31, 2012, the league will lock out the players again beginning on August 16, 2012 (this guarantees that summer league takes place and gives teams a chance to set up rehab for any players injured in summer league games). A lockout must be in place for decertification to make any sense and to move the matter to the courtroom. Agreeing to a lockout at a later date protects the players’ major leverage.
3. Both sides agree that if no agreement has been reached within a certain number of days after the August 2012 lockout begins, the preseason and the first two weeks of the 2012-13 season are canceled (costing the players a paycheck).
4. Both sides agree that, if no agreement has been reached by an even later date, the owners can start canceling games from Week 3 on, or cancel the entire season. This would protect the owners’ major leverage, and since cancellation dates would already be set, time pressure would be preserved as well.
5. Both sides agree to a negotiation schedule for the ’11-12 season that could make implementing steps 2, 3, and 4 unnecessary.
Doing all this keeps the owners and players from losing any more money this season; significantly reduces – and possibly eliminates – the owners’ losses because they will be keeping 4 percent more of BRI; and preserves the “nuclear” options of both superpowers.
Hopefully, the deal will be done by Monday night. If it’s not, implementing these five steps would allow the season to get underway regardless.
Art Rondeau is a trainer of neuro-linguistic programming (NLP) who specializes in working on the mental performance of elite athletes in a wide variety of sports (NBA, WTA, LPGA, Olympics, NCAA, etc.). Follow him on Twitter (@ArtRondeau); through his blog (http://artrondeau.wordpress.com/); and through his website (www.artrondeau.com).
Karl says
Hey Art are you related to Rajon? Tell your boy to shape up cuz he has a foul attitude!
Karl says
no pun intended 😉
Somervillain says
Why not build in periodic amnesty clauses (say once every 3 years per team), saving teams from bad cap killer contracts and luxury payments, while the players still get their guaranteed money. It doesn’t cost any players their jobs, because while Waived Rashard takes some Heat scrub’s seat, there is now an empty seat in DC.
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I don’t fear failure. I fear succeeding at something that doesn’t matter.–Dan Erickson
Eric in Madison says
The players couldn’t agree to this. No way. How can they take 4% less than they have been getting for the privilege of being put through this again next summer?
It all but sets in stone that they would be taking less than 53% under a longer term agreement. They were getting 57%. If 53% is a stopgap, clearly it’s a stopgap on the way to something even lower. It puts the players in a terrible position.
I might consider a 1 year stopgap at 55%.
Karl says
I can only imagine how hard reporters would try to get the financials of the NBA during the season. Plus if the owners agree to the stop gap, they are basically saying that their projected losses were bs, and they are locking out players for a higher profit margin. I guess you could add a clause saying the next CBA must have a lower BRI split than the stop gap.